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Keystone Analytics Poll: Peduto 39, Wagner 32

Wagner Peduto
Wagner, left, and Peduto

City Councilman BIll Peduto’s lead has grown in the race for Pittsburgh Mayor, the latest poll from Keystone Analytics shows.

Peduto took 39% to former Auditor General Jack Wagner’s 32%. 8% go for state Rep. Jake Wheatley, 1% for activist AJ Wheatley, and 18% of voters remain undecided.

The pollster surveyed 404 likely Democratic primary voters from May 7-8. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9%, meaning the race, while wider, is still in the margin of error. Keystone Analytics is affiliated with the PA Association of Realtors.

The margin is 5 points wider for Peduto than a poll from the same firm in late April, which showed him ahead 38%-36%.

Favorability for both leading contenders has dropped in recent weeks as negative campaign ads have taken their toll. Peduto fell from 65% positive to 51%, while Wagner fell a similar distance from 64% down to 49%.

The pollster summarized district-by-district thus: “Peduto holds a 10+ point advantage in Districts 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9, while Wagner holds the same advantage in Districts 2 and 4. However, voters in Districts 1, 6, 9 are also the most undecided, with at least 25 percent of those surveyed saying they were unsure who they would vote for.”

Essentially, the city’s North Side and African American communities are the most undecided. East Enders go for Peduto (his home base), South Pittsburghers for Wagner (his home base).

Important note: the district-by-district results should be taken with a big grain of salt (likely why the pollster didn’t release actual numbers). Roughly 42-50 voters were surveyed for each district, meaning the margin of error likely is very high.

More poll details are here. This is a map of Pittsburgh Council districts.

Pittsburgh Council district map

8 Responses

  1. ABCDEF, Wow, what an original name! You must be on “double secret probation.” Must be another apologist for the people who are defrauding us with this bogus poll! What are you hiding? Why not come clean with the press and the public, allow them to meet the pollsters who are new to pollitcal polling, all examine all the questions asked and the results achieved, all the methodology, see who paid for it and all the sources of money and all those involved? I was called two times by this so-called clandestine group and the questions were clearly biased. Why else did the first poll question ask, “if corruption in the Mayor’s Office is the most important issue facing Pittsburgh” and listing Peduto first in the list of candidates in the questions and burying his chief rivals after all the also-ran candidates both times. They even asked if I would vote for Ravenstahl a full week and a half AFTER he withdrew. Give me a break. Give us all a break. Come clean. Tell all, and prove it to everyone’s satisfaction.

  2. Larry–This is not a Peduto push poll. This firm is owned by the PA Realtors, and the Realtors are supporting Wagner. Stop talking about things you know nothing about.

  3. Peduto has the guts to push back against Catholic priest and nun bullying to endorse gay marriage. Wagner kneels down to the Catholic Church with their inhuman treatment of homosexuals and women. Peduto has my vote for turning his back on organized religion to do the right thing for men who have the human right to marry another man, same for women.

  4. keystone analystics is a independent polling agency they had wagner 38 peduto 30 a month ago wagner seems to be tied with ravenstahls people and that is hurting him bad.ravenstahls negative ads against peduto look alot like wagners negative ads.if wagner has any chance he should call his friend luke ravenstahl and tell him pull those ads.there actually back firing

  5. This is that same PEDUTO PUSH POLL from that company that has never done political polling. Their questions are biased. I was called twice. Both times they were the same biased questions designed to show a Peduto favorable result. Someone should expose them! Their questions were biased earlier in the cycle and, they still are. Who paid for this? Peduto or Fitz?

  6. reasonable rep i think you see the writing on the wall wagners numbers are flat.his numbers are actually going backwards thanks lukey ravenstahl.wagner has to distance himself from ravenstahl which is not happening plus pedutos ground game is way to strong.maybe wagner can run for governor again lol.

  7. Also, only 43% of those surveyed were male? I guess we’ll find out where voters stand soon enough.

  8. Keegan, isn’t it unusual to survey pretty much an equal number of voters from each council district? All you have to do is look at the county elections website to see that there are Election Day instances where one district’s turnout is up to 50% higher than another’s.

    I’m sure each campaign has their own internal polling, but I wish that a more well-known firm would team up with the Trib or PG to do a survey and release it to the public before Election Day.

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    Total Voters: 112

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