If you watch the evening news in the Philadelphia media market, odds are that you will hear about Mitt Romney, Kathleen Kane, Patrick Murphy or Tom Smith. But you won’t see Steve Welch. His campaign hasn’t reserved any time on Philly broadcast between now and the primary.
Two sources, including one affiliated with a Welch opponent, say his statewide buy, which includes a Fox News cable buy in every market, totals about $178,000 – with no broadcast in the Philly or Erie markets.
$1,000,000 per week is considered saturation in Pa. by industry veterans.
Welch’s campaign, per its normal policy, declined to comment on the specifics of its ad buy.
The Philadelphia market is the largest in the state, and includes about 35 percent of the GOP primary electorate. It includes the City, five collar counties, the Lehigh Valley and Berks County.
One source said Smith’s Philly buy amounted to about 750 gross ratings points. Former state Rep. Sam Rohrer is also reportedly going on TV this week, with a $60K buy statewide.
Update: Rohrer’s campaign says it has no plans to advertise on TV.
It’s a matter of money. Fundraising has proved tough for most of the five Republicans in the U.S. Senate race. Welch raised about $150,000 in the first quarter, compared to Tom Smith’s $300,000. In 2011, Welch loaned his campaign $1 million; Smith loaned or in-kinded his campaign over $5 million.
Welch’s campaign says that TV is only part of the story. In a race where so many voters are undecided, says campaign manager Peter Towey, the real question is organization.
“There’s still a huge group undecided of undecided voters,” Towey said, citing public polls. “In the end, what matters is the organization we’ve put in place to turn out our voters.”
“They’re always going to have more money than us. I’m confident in the organization we’ve put in place.”
Welch has the endorsement of the PA Republican Party, which carries a number of logistical advantages.
Republican committees in Southeast Pa. in particular have a reputation of delivering for endorsed candidates. In a PoliticsPA study of primary results, endorsed candidates have historically outperformed their statewide averages in the four suburban counties – Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery – by as much as 7 points. That includes times when a local candidate contested an endorsed candidate from another part of the state.
Welch has both advantages. He’s endorsed, and he’s a SEPA native. Voters will see “Chester County” under the entrepreneur’s name on the ballot.
Smith is a former coal company owner from Armstrong County. Also in the hunt are David Christian, a businessman and veterans advocate from Bucks County, and Marc Scaringi, an attorney from Cumberland County.
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8 Responses
MCRC is useless on its best day. and most of committee people and area leaders, to my knowledge, are supporting Tom Smith and not Steve Welch.
Dave Christian is very strong in Bucks.
DelCo may help but Tea Party has a presence and the Roger Howard race will focus on getting out the anti-Establishment Vote.
Tom Smith has made a lot of friends below the radar with his HALF MILLION DOLLARS contributed to Republicans, conservatives and free market candidates and organizations.
Tom Smith is the perfect opponent to Bob Casey. real world farmer who made a fortune in energy industry and is as down to earth as anyone can be. Cowboy boots tell us a lot about Tom Smith who still works the 400 acre farm he grew up on.
If Welch is counting on the Montgomery County Republican Committee to help deliver results, he’s going to lose badly. The MCRC is split among Welch & Smith within the leadership. I’ve personally seen local township committee members campaigning for Smith. The PA GOP endorsement was a mark of death for Welch.
Oh my. A self funding democrat, who admits that he voted that way, saw the light in 2010. He should have run against Casey (Smith) and Welch never garnered any support for the grassroots. The endorsement process was a sham and set the tone for this election. There are 3 Conservatives, vote for 1 of them.
@Blackford Oakes- None of his opponents believe it. They know exactly what you are stating to be fact. That is why Tom had such strong support in state committee, especially in his home region.
The democrats do not want to run against him, he is the one who replace Casey in the general. His life story is real and that shines through the spin.
Both Mr. Welch and the pagop can clearly read the statewide polls. In fact, I note the absence of state gop polls in the race. They are hoping for a southeast pull out like Cawley did in 2010, but are not confident at all, saving their money.
I would agree with Mark, Steve is an affable gentleman, and would add, most likely would have done better if he had NOT been endorsed. The way the endorsement happened this year was even worse than the endorsement process itself.
And the net result is the lack of state committee people working for the “endorsed candidate” in fact, many for their first time ever have chosen to support others openly.
Now, the real decision time on this will be 4/24. Will the people who loathe the endorsement process reject it where it counts, at the ballot box. To register your dissent do not vote for any endorsed candidate in the primary. Sure, the attorney general and treasurer will still win in April, but if there is a significant disparity between votes cast and votes cast for endorsed candidate you will have voted against the process. This carries much more weight than signing a petition or holding a protest sign.
Does anyone actually believe Tom Smith is a RINO? If he was truly a Democrat or had any liberal agenda, he could have saved the $5 Million he invested in his campaign and just let Casey/Obama continue their reckless spending and push for socialism. Smith is trying to make a difference for future generations and although some are judging him for his past party affiliation, the $500K he’s donated to Conservative candidates/causes over the past decade (and $5Mn to his own campaign) speak much more clearly about his ideology.
One RINO down, one to go. Now people, don’t forget that Smith is a LIFE LONG DEMOCRAT trying to tell us that he is really a Republican. We know that he is not a Republican, never was, never will be. He is just trying to by his seat. The people of Pennsylvania will recognize this as well.
I am happy to see that Corbet’s hand picked, anointed candidate could not garner any interest in his candidacy.
And thus ended the Welch campaign. It hasn’t been an easy road for Mr. Welch. He seems like a nice guy but it looks as if he’s packing it in. The local Party organizations weren’t ever able to come through for him and it appears as if Smith and Christian will take the lion’s share of the votes from what was supposed to be Welch country. Being a smart business man, he knows a bad investment when he sees one and it looks as if he’s trying to make a graceful exit and put up a decent showing.