Map: What A Hillary vs. Bernie Contest in PA Could Look Like

NYT MapThe Pennsylvania Presidential Democratic primary will be among several important contests that will be decided on April 26th.

Thanks to the New York Times’ Nate Cohn, though, we have a projection of how that race may play out.

By taking the county-by-county results that are already in and weighing the demographic and geographic data, Cohn was able to make a projection map of the states that have yet to vote in the Democratic race (as of March 23rd).

According to these calculations, Hillary Clinton will be especially strong in the Acela corridor as well as the Northeastern part of the commonwealth (her father was born in Scranton). Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders should do well in the center of the state especially Centre County, the home of Penn State and its millennial students.

Most intriguingly, Cohn has Clinton performing strong out west where Sanders’ populism might be the more natural fit. If there’s one spot to watch on election night to gauge how Clinton’s vote totals match expectations, it might be there.

4 Responses

  1. Don’t think Northampton county will go for Hillary. We are feeling the Bern hard over here.

  2. But the June 11th State wCommittee meeting will be in Scranton, not Harrisburg. It is harder to get to, no public transportation, and just happens to be Hillary’s base. Her father was born there? Sounds like DWA work again. I am a delegate candidate for Bernie, who lives in a Hillary supporting group of elderly, mostly women Assistive and Independent living facility. Getting to Scranton may not be easy. And that may be my only way to be selected. So, how come the meeting( the most important one of the year, is in Scranton. Ask The Chair or executive committee. I served for many years on State Committee and know the political games they play.

  3. Most of that is right. 15% is the threshold to get any delegates. Delegates are awarded proportionately, so it’s not an extra 15% for each delegate. If a delegate is elected at the primary, they go to the convention…not merely to the state committee meeting in June…which is in Scranton, not Harrisburg btw. The additional appointed delegates will be named at that meeting.

  4. “It ain’t over till the Fat Lady or Milli-Vanilli sing!” For every 15% of the vote in PA, Bernie and Hillary get one delegate. It all depends on turnout and whether or not people think who the best candidate is to defeat Trump or Cruz. Winning in the Primary, where I am a Delegate Committed to Bernie Sanders from the 8th CD, only gets me to the June 11 State Democratic Party Convention. That is where the complex calculus or “smoke filled back room” deals will take place to balance the PA Democratic Party Delegation to the Democratic National Convention. The Delegation will be balanced for gender, 50 % women, race, vetrans status, LGBT Status, age(retired and youth) handicapped, union and ethnicity/nationality. It is a very complex calculus to support a diverse delegation. PA gets 7 pages and Democrats can be appointed to the three standing committees at the convention, credentials, rules and platform. At Large Delegates will also be selected at the June 11 PA State Democratic Convention in Harrisburg, PA. Ah, “politics makes such strange bedfellows.

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