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Marist: Trump Has Narrow Edge on Biden in PA; Casey Leads McCormick in Senate Race

Former President Donald Trump has a narrow edge over President Joe Biden in a recent Marist College Pennsylvania poll, although the difference remains within the margin of error.

Marist also surveyed 1,277 Keystone State registered voters on the U.S. Senate race, finding that incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr. holds a 6-point advantage over Republican challenger Dave McCormick. The poll was conducted between June 3-6 and has a margin of error of +/-3.5%.

Trump continues to maintain a small lead over Biden, 47-45%, and has led his opponent in the last eight polls conducted in the Commonwealth. That comes with the caveat that each survey difference has fallen within the margin of statistical error.

The numbers include those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. polled at 3%, while Cornel West and Jill Stein each received 1% support. Among those who indicated that they “definitely” plan to vote in November, the contest changes little with two percentage points separating Trump (48%) and Biden (46%).

“Once a Democratic stronghold, Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes are up for grabs,” says Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “Although Obama carried Pennsylvania handily in 2008 and 2012, Trump broke the “blue wall” in 2016 against Clinton before Biden ‘held serve’ for the Democrats in 2020. Now, there are no guarantees for either candidate.”

 

Support

Biden continues to draw support from Philadelphia and its collar counties. Three out of four (75%) surveyed from Philly favor Biden versus 18% for Trump, while the numbers are 50-43% for Biden in the suburbs. Trump holds the edge in the Northeast (51-40%), Central (56-32%) and West (51-43%).

A college degree is a line of demarcation, as Biden leads 58-36% among those with a sheepskin, while Trump is plus-16 among those without (53-37%). Among white males, those without a college degree favor the 45th president, 62-28%, while those with a degree are split, 47-47%. Women, on the other hand, with a degree are 65-30% for Biden and those without are 58-34% for Trump.

Job Approval

Biden’s approval rating among adults is 42 percent and among registered and likely voters rises to 44 percent. Nearly two in three respondents from Philadelphia (68%) approve of his performance, while 46 percent approve in the Philly suburbs.

His lowest numbers are in central PA (32%). More than half (53%) of college graduates and non-white respondents (55%) approve of his work, while only 1-in-4 4 white men without a college degree do the same. The 42% figure remains stable from Marist’s September 2022 and November 2022 polls.

Favorability

Biden is still underwater (minus-13) when it comes to favorability with 42 percent having a favorable impression of the president and 55% viewing him unfavorably. He has better numbers among Philadelphia residents (69%), Blacks (66%) and college graduates (54%). Biden’s weakest numbers are among the residents of central PA (30%), non-college graduates (35%) and those under the age of 35 (36%).

Trump is also underwater at minus-10 with 43-53% splits. He has nearly 50% favorability among those outside the Philadelphia region and draws strong ratings from white evangelical christians (71%) and non-college graduates (55%).

U.S. Senate

Casey’s six-point lead over McCormick (52-46%) shrinks to four points among those who are “definitely voting” in the election (51-47%). As with Biden, Casey has considerable advantages in Philadelphia (83-16%) and its suburbs (56-42%). As with Trump, McCormick tops Casey in the Northeast (50-44%) and central portion of the state (58-41%), while the western section of the Commonwealth is split at 49-49%.

The Democrat has strong polling numbers among Blacks (77-22%), those under the age of 45 (56-41%) and women (56-41%). The GOP challenger’s strength is among white men without a college degree (64-34%), white evangelical christians (74-22%) and rural voters (62-35%).

Casey has a plus-15 favorability number with 46% viewing him positively and 31% unfavorably. He is above water in all regions of the Commonwealth, including +23 in Philly. Black voters provide him with his strongest ratings (65%), followed by members of the “Silent/Greatest” generation (60%).

McCormick is viewed favorably by a third of those responding (33%) with 31% looking upon him differently. His strength is in the central counties (41%) and among white men without a college degree (50%).

Miscellaneous

Among those surveyed who are “definitely voting” in November, 78 percent indicated they already know who they are voting for and “nothing will change” their mind. An additional 17 percent responded that they have a good idea who they will be casting their vote for, but has left room to change their mind.

Registered voters stated that preserving democracy (31%) is at the top of their mind when thinking about their November vote, while 3-in-10 (30%) pointed to inflation. Immigration (17%) and abortion (10%) also hit double digits.

 





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  • Reader Poll: Should President Joe Biden Step Aside?


    • Yes. He should step aside because of his age, declining ability to do the job. (45%)
    • No. He should not step aside. (39%)
    • Yes. He should step aside because he can't beat Donald Trump. (15%)

    Total Voters: 231

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