When you tune in to the evening news or Wheel of Fortune tonight, the odds are you won’t see any presidential campaign ads. The latest Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll explains why: Obama leads in Pa. by a healthy 9 points.
President Obama took 50 percent, while Mitt Romney took 41 percent in the poll of likely voters conducted last week. It’s nearly identical to Obama’s average Pa. lead of 8.4 percent according to numbers compiled by Real Clear Politics (which does not yet include the Morning Call survey).
The Morning Call’s previous poll, conducted from August 20 to 22, showed Obama up 49 to 40 percent.
Neither presidential campaign nor any outside group is currently airing campaign ads in Pa.
Meanwhile, Sen. Bob Casey maintains his double digit lead over challenger Tom Smith. The same survey showed the Freshman Democrat ahead of Smith, a former coal company owner, 45 percent to 33 percent.
Casey’s average polling advantage, according to RCP, is 14.5 percent.
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The extremist GOP is dead in PA.2010 was a fluke.Obama will carry the state with ease,and Casey will breeze past the absurd Tea party Zealot Smith.Bush 2,and his 8 years of horror are still a vivid memory here.Romney Ryan are even worse.
After the Obama Middle East foreign policy fiasco resulting in burning embassies and four dead Americans including an ambassador sinks in, the polls will change significantly.
So in a poll with 49% Democrats (which is over sampling the PA likely voter) Obama only gets 49% of the vote. THAT should be the key takeaway from any reputable pollster or political analyst, that a sitting President is only holding his base and could easily lose PA.
Well, Pennsylvania is feeling pretty “blue” about getting stuck with Corbett.
2012 will show that 2010 was an anomaly in Pennsylvania. Blue is the new normal.