MCall Poll: Senate Race Narrowing

Smith, left, and Casey

Tom Smith will arrive at Republican State Committee Friday with a head of steam. Another poll has shown the U.S. Senate hopeful closing the gap with Bob Casey.

A poll from the Allentown Morning Call and Muhlenberg College has Casey ahead of Smith by 8 points, 44 percent to 36 percent. That’s 4 points closer than their survey from 10 days ago, which had Smith trailing 45 percent to 33 percent.

It’s the latest of four polls released within the past week that show the race in single digits (Casey had lead Smith by margins in the mid to high teens for months). Casey now leads Smith by 9.8 percent according to the Real Clear Politics polling average – which doesn’t yet include this survey.

Casey, a freshman Democrat, is still better known and better liked than Smith, a former coal company owner. Both have been on television for weeks.

Realistically, with both candidates on the air, it was inevitable that the race would close. However, that he is showing nearly universal improvement means Smith is getting noticed.

The Washington Post changed its prediction of the race from “solid Democrat” to “lean Democrat” this week, and Smith Thursday appeared on the nationally syndicated Mark Levin show. You can listen to that interview here.

Today, Smith picked up the endorsement of former Governor Tom Ridge. Ridge, a moderate, was himself talked about as a possible challenger to Casey.

“Tom Smith’s detailed plan to ‘Restore the American Dream’ offers the common sense solutions necessary to grow our economy, as he believes that hard-working Americans will pave our road to prosperity,” Ridge said in a release. “I am pleased to endorse Tom Smith as our next United States Senator and invite all Pennsylvanians to join me.”

“I’m humbled to have the support of one of our state’s most steadfast, results-oriented leaders, Governor Ridge,” said Tom Smith. “Gov. Ridge’s experience in the private and public sectors are inspiring.”

Sen. Pat Toomey also chimed in with a fundraising email to supporters on Smith’s behalf.


The Morning Call/Muhlenberg poll’s sample size and methodology have not yet been announced; the paper will do so in its print edition over the weekend. PoliticsPA will update this post when that information becomes available.


The pollster surveyed 427 likely voters from Sept. 22-26. The margin of error is plus or minus 5 percent.

14 Responses

  1. @Sid
    The backstory to Smith’s success is hard work. Something far too few people will do, let alone respect.

  2. Anyone who has spent 3 minutes with Casey quickly understands the only reason he holds office is due to the Dems hand-picking a candidate they could fully control, and one who was too dense to realize they were doing so.

  3. There’s a backstory to Smith’s alleged business success. Once Casey makes it public Mr. Smith will be heading back to Kittanning, or possibly federal prison.

  4. Bob Casey is a coward that has done absolutely nothing at all for PA. He claims he’s pro-life. Yeah, right. His father was pro-life. His father risked his political behind and destroyed his shot at being Clinton’s VP in order to push pro-life values that ultimately saved countless number of lives. Bob Casey is nothing like his father…and that’s a real shame for PA.

  5. Don’t forget the good Senator Casey was also only one, of 7, in the entire senate to vote to continue the funding for ACORN, after the crap hit the fan with all their illegal activities.

  6. Whether any of you know this or not, but Mark Levin is another right-winger that is part of the Tea Party agenda. His talk show is right up there with the likes of Limbaugh and Hannity. It seems that Smith is only talking to his base. Please, don’t make like he was talking to any kind of if dare I say objective or kind of neutral media.

  7. Casey (aka Senator Zero) is a shifty, do-nothing lap-dog for Obama. They should give him a pick and shovel and make him dig a ditch for a living. A little hard work would put some manners on him.

  8. Casey probably wants to be governor since his bill to censor the internet didn’t pass. Aside from that bill, he wasn’t able to lead and accomplish much. On the plus side, he did sign a letter pressuring HUD to give PHA and Carl Greene more flexibility to pick up stimulus funds. Seems he was successful in that regard.

  9. @ Steelblitz1: Sling Blade was a 1996 movie. Billy Bob Thornton starred. Bobby and the character Billy Bob played look, act and talk alike.I think Billy Bob’s character may have an edge in the intellect department….

  10. Somewhat disinterested in this race. Tom Smith is a tea bagger who wants to privatize social security— now that’s nutty and Casey’s a nice guy, but a dud, who only comes around like Punxy Phil to get re-elected.

Comments are closed.

  • Who Will Be Speaker of the PA House on February 28?

    • Joanna McClinton (68%)
    • Mark Rozzi (27%)
    • A Republican TBD (5%)

    Total Voters: 315

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