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McClelland Poll: Rothfus Numbers Open Door in PA-12

Erin-McClelland
Erin McClelland

A poll commissioned by Democratic candidate Erin McClelland found that Rep. Keith Rothfus (R-Allegheny) has tepid support among voters in Pennsylvania’s 12th district.

According to the poll, first reported by Early Returns, Rothfus enjoys a positive favorability rating: 38% to 27%. 35% percent didn’t know or didn’t have an opinion about him.

A narrow plurality said Rothfus deserves to be re-elected, 31% to 30%. 39% said they weren’t sure.

When it came to the government shutdown, 50% of respondents said the opposed “shutting down the federal government over funding for Obamacare” while 40% supported it.

The poll was conducted by DC-based Lincoln Park Strategies, who surveyed 708 likely voters from October 8-9. The results were down-weighted to 400 respondents to ensure proportional responses. The margin of error is plus or minus 4%.

McClelland needs to show national and state Democrats that there is a path to victory against Rothfus in order to generate the type of fundraising necessary to make her a serious competitor.

As with any poll conducted by a candidate or interest group, the results should be taken with a grain of salt. Pollsters often prepare two versions of a polling memo: one for public release, and one for private review by the campaign.

In this case, the polling memo does not include head-to-head numbers between McClelland and Rothfus – a sign that the numbers weren’t favorable to McClelland.**

**McClelland’s campaign told PoliticsPA that no head to head matchup was conducted “since this poll was to test Rothfus’ numbers alone.”

McClelland Endorsements

McClelland, who runs a substance abuse rehabilitation center in Blawnox, also recently announced the endorsement of three Westmoreland County Democrats. County Commissioner Ted Kopas, County Democratic Committee Chair Dante Bertani, and County Democratic Committee Executive Director Jesse Walker all voiced their support of McClelland.

“Erin McClelland has spent the majority of her adult life raising a family in Westmoreland County and is a person of high character, energy, and enthusiasm,” Walker said. “I am proud to endorse her candidacy. There is a grave disconnect between Congressman Rothfus and the needs of those in the 12th Congressional District. Erin is the best person to replace Mr. Rothfus and represent those of us living in the 12th District.”

John Hugya, the retired Marine Colonel and former Chief of Staff to Rep. Jack Murtha, entered the Democratic primary on Friday.

Rothfus defeated Rep. Mark Critz in 2012. He faces former Critz supporter Larry Stiles in the Republican primary.

 

6 Responses

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  2. Rothfus’ membership in the anti-government Freedom Caucus should be highlighted as well as that group’s role in costly government shutdowns.

  3. Even with one-term Tom at the top of the ticket, Rothfus will win reelection. He beat Mark Critz in a presidential year and with his incumbency has been able to out fundraise this nobody of an opponent.

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