Monmouth Poll: Biden 49, Trump 45
A new poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump among registered voters in Pennsylvania, although the race is tightening.
A Monmouth University poll released on Wednesday morning shows Biden leading Trump by 4 points, 49-to-45, among registered voters in the Keystone State.
Biden leads Trump by just 3 points, 49-to-46, among likely voters in the high turnout model. The former VP only leads the president by just 1 point, 48-to-47, among likely voters in the low turnout model. Biden’s lead in all three models are within the poll’s margin of error.
Likely voters, high turnout:
49% Biden (52%)
46% Trump (42%)
— MonmouthPoll (@MonmouthPoll) September 2, 2020
Trump gained significant ground in this latest poll in comparison to the Monmouth University poll released in mid-July that showed Biden leading Trump by 13 points, 53-to-40, among registered voters in the state. Biden also led Trump by 10 points among likely voters in a high turnout election and held a 7 point advantage among likely voters in a low turnout election in the state. Biden’s lead in all three models in the July poll was beyond the margin of error.
A reason Trump has narrowed the gap in the state can be attributed to him gaining momentum in the ten counties where the vote margins were closest in the 2016 presidential election, which Monmouth dubbed as the “swing counties.” 46% of registered voters in the swing counties said they support Trump, while 44% said they support Biden. The counties included in this category are Berks, Bucks, Centre, Chester, Dauphin, Erie, Lackawanna, Lehigh, Monroe, and Northampton.
In mid-July’s poll, Biden held a 19 point lead over Trump, 54-to-35, in these swing counties.
Both Biden and Trump made gains in their favorability rating, although the president’s rating still remains underwater. 48% have a favorable opinion of Biden, while 46% have an unfavorable view of him. 44% have a favorable opinion of Trump, while just over half, 51%, have an unfavorable one.
In mid-July, Biden’s rating was under water with 45% saying that they had a favorable opinion of the former VP, and 47% saying they had an unfavorable opinion of him. In that same poll from July, 40% had a favorable view of Trump, while 54% held an unfavorable view of him.
A Morning Consult poll of likely voters in the state released on Tuesday showed identical numbers – Biden leading 49-to-45 over Trump. The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 3.4 points in Pennsylvania.
Monmouth surveyed 400 Pennsylvania registered voters from Aug 28 to 31. The poll has a margin of error of +/-4.9%. FiveThirtyEight gives Monmouth an “A+” rating, although the poll does slightly leans towards Democrats.
The full crosstabs for the Monmouth University Poll can be found here.