Monmouth Poll: Biden 50, Trump 45

A new poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden holding a several point advantage over President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, although the race has tightened in the state. 

A Monmouth University poll released on Tuesday morning shows Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%, among registered voters in the Keystone State. This is a sizable improvement for the president in comparison to Monmouth’s most recent poll conducted in early-October that showed Biden ahead of Trump by 12 points, 54%-to-42%, among registered voters in the state. 

In this latest poll, Biden also leads among likely voters. Biden leads Trump by 7 points, 51%-to-44%, among likely voters in the high turnout model. Biden holds a 5 point advantage, 50%-to-45%, among likely voters in the low turnout model. 

In the previous poll conducted in early-October,  Biden led Trump by 11 and 8 points respectively among likely voters in the high turnout model and the low turnout model. 

FiveThirtyEight gives Monmouth an “A+” rating, although the poll favors Democrats by an average of 1.3%. 

Monmouth surveyed 502 Pennsylvania registered voters from Oct. 28 to Nov. 1. The poll has a margin of error of +/-4.4%. 

The full crosstabs for the Monmouth University Poll can be found here.

Biden’s lead in this latest poll is a few points larger than the current Real Clear Politics average. 

A New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters released in early-October showed Biden carrying a 7 point lead over Trump, 49-to-42. A CBS poll conducted by YouGov released one day after the NYT/Siena College poll also shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51-to-44, among likely voters. A Monmouth University shows the former VP leading the president by 12 points, 54-to-42, among registered voters in the state. An Emerson College poll of likely voters showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50-to-45, in the state. A Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes poll, in partnership with Oakland University and Ohio Northern University, shows Biden leading Trump by just over 5 points, 49.6%-to-44.5%. 51% of likely voters in the state back Biden in the state, while 46% support Trump, according to The Hill/HarrisX polling. A Rasmussen Reports survey of likely votersshows Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%, in the state. A Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters in the state released on Oct. 21, showed Biden leading Trump by 8 points, 51%-to-43%. A CNN/SSRS poll of likely voters also released on Oct. 21 showed Biden leading Trump by 10 points, 53%-to-43%. A Fox News poll of likely voters in the state showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%. A CNBC/Change Research poll shows Biden leading by just 2 points, 49%-to-47%, among likely voters in the state. A Morning Consult poll of likely voters in the state showed Biden leading Trump by 9 points, 52%-to-43%. A Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll of likely voters released on Oct. 23 showed Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51%-to-44%, in the state. A Gravis marketing poll of likely voters in the state showed Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51%-to-44%, in the state. Polling also released on Monday from the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison conducted by YouGov in collaboration with the Wisconsin State Journal of likely voters in the state showed Biden leading Trump by 8 points, 52%-to-44%. A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%, among likely voters in the state. A Trafalgar Group poll showed Trump leading Biden by less than 1 point, 48.4%-to-47.6%, among likely voters in the state. A Civiqs/DailyKos poll of likely voters shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 52%-to-45%, among likely voters in the state. A Franklin & Marshall College poll released on Oct. 28 showed Biden carrying a 6 point lead over Trump, 50%-to-44%, among likely voters in the state. A third Quinnipiac University poll released this month on Oct. 28 showed Biden leading Trump among likely voters in the state by 7 points, 51%-to-44%. Biden holds a 5 point lead over Trump, 50%-to-45%, among registered voters in the state, according to a Univision/University of Houston poll. A PoliticalIQ poll conducted by Scott Rasmussen showed Biden leading Trump by 6 points, 51%-to-45%, among likely voters in the state. A second The Hill/Harris polling released in late-October showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 51%-to-46%, among likely voters in the state. A second Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll released on Oct. 31 showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 49%-to-44%, in the state. A Washington Post/ABC News poll released on Sunday showed Biden with a 7 point advantage, 51%-to-44%, among likely voters in the state. A New York Times/Siena College poll released on Sunday shows Biden ahead of Trump by 6 points, 49%-to-43%, among likely voters in the state. An Emerson College poll released on Sunday shows Biden leading Trump by 4 points, 50%-to-46%, among likely voters in the state. A Reuters-Ipsos poll of likely voters in the state released on Sunday showed Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51%-to-44%. 

Biden’s largest lead in October public polling comes from the Quinnipiac University poll released on Oct. 7 that showed the former VP leading the president by 13 points, 54-to-41, among likely voters in the state. An AtlasIntel poll of likely voters in the state released on Oct. 31 showed Trump with a 1 point lead over Biden, 49.6%-to-48.5%. 

Two other polls from a conservative website showed Trump in the lead, while another GOP friendly poll and two Democratic backed polls released this month showed Biden with an advantage in the state, although the margin varied by the pollster. 

An Insider Advantage phone poll commissioned by the Center for American Greatness, a conservative website, of likely voters in the state released on Oct. 26 showed Trump leading Biden by just under 3 points, 48.4%-to-45.5%. Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness released another poll on Nov. 1 that showed Trump only leading Biden by just over 1 point, 48.7%-to-47.4%, in the state. 

A Trafalgar Group poll commissioned by Restoration PAC, a conservative super PAC founded by Doug Traux, a one time GOP Senate hopeful in Illinois, showed Biden leading Trump by 1 point, 47.5%-to-46.4%, among likely voters in the state. A Public Policy Polling survey commissioned by American Bridge, a Democratic super PAC, showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 51%-to-46%, in the state. A Public Policy Polling survey commissioned by Climate Power 2020 shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 52%-to-45%, in the state.

The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 2.5 points in Pennsylvania.

November 2nd, 2020 | Posted in Front Page Stories, Poll, Presidential, Top Stories | 1 Comment

One thought on “Monmouth Poll: Biden 50, Trump 45”

  1. gulag Pittsburgh says:

    Trump will be weeping in his pill-induced sleep tonight. LOSER!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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