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Monmouth Poll: Biden 53, Trump 40

A new poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by double digits among registered voters in Pennsylvania. 

A Monmouth University Poll released on Wednesday morning shows Biden leading Trump by 13 points, 53-to-40, among registered voters in the Keystone State. 

Biden’s lead dwindles a bit among likely voters, but remains beyond the margin of error. 

Biden leads Trump by 10 points, 52-to-42, among likely voters in a high turnout election. The former VP also leads the current president by 7 points, 51-to-44, among likely voters in a low turnout election in the state. 

Both Biden and Trump register strong numbers within their respective party, but Biden holds the advantage with independent voters. 54% of Independent voters said they’d support Biden for president, while 33% said they’d support Trump. 

Biden holds a similar lead in the ten counties where the vote margins were closest in the 2016 presidential election, which Monmouth dubbed as the “swing counties” in Pennsylvania. 54% of registered voters in the swing counties said they support Biden, while 35% said they support Trump. The counties included in this category are Berks, Bucks, Centre, Chester, Dauphin, Erie, Lackawanna, Lehigh, Monroe, and Northampton. 

Both presidential candidates have favorability ratings that are under water, although slightly over half of registered voters in the state have an unfavorable view of Trump. 

40% have a favorable opinion of Trump, while 54% have an unfavorable view. Nearly half, 47%, responded that they have a “very unfavorable” view of the president. 45% have a favorable view of Biden, while 47% have an unfavorable view. Nearly one-third, 32%, have a “very unfavorable” view of the former VP. 

Although Biden holds a several point advantage in this poll, voters are split on who they think will win the state, in large part because they believe there’s a significant amount of “secret Trump voters.” 

57% believe there are a number of “secret voters” in their communities who support Trump, but won’t tell anyone about it. Only 27% believe there are “secret voters” who support Biden’s bid for the White House. 

Despite Biden’s double digit lead among registered voters, 46% polled said they think Trump will win Pennsylvania, while 45% said that they think Biden will carry the state, and 9% said that they don’t know. 
Coronavirus Response Ratings: Wolf 67-29, Trump 42-56. 

Another area in which the president is under water is his handling of the coronavirus outbreak, while Gov. Tom Wolf received high marks on the matter. 

42% of registered voters say that Trump has done a good job handling the coronavirus outbreak, while 56% say that he’s done a bad job, leaving the president with a -14 point net approval rating on the matter.

67% say that Wolf has done a good job handling the coronavirus outbreak, while 29% say he’s done a bad job, leaving the governor with a 38 point net approval rating on the matter. 

Monmouth surveyed 401 Pennsylvania registered voters from July 9 to 13. The poll has a margin of error of +/-4.9%. FiveThirtyEight gives Monmouth an “A+” rating, although the poll does slightly leans towards Democrats. 

The full crosstabs for the Monmouth University Poll can be found here.

8 Responses

  1. Then why did Wolf and Cuomo keeping up the scare tactics over the virus if their boy Joe Scranton is so far ahead?

    They have already made it impossible for Trump to hold his huge rallies, the media is scaring the heck out of people.

    Their job to use the virus as a political weapon has worked, so far.

    1. Maybe – and I’m just spitballing here – maybe they’re genuinely listening to the experts and trying to prevent more people from needlessly dying. The evidence is piling up that we could open the economy more if people would just put on their big boy pants and wear a mask in public like a responsible adult.

      But yeah, some vast conspiracy that literally everyone but Republicans are in on makes sense too.


  3. Look at Fitzpatrick wanting all those debates and tell me he is not running scared of defeat. He can read the tea leaves like us all and as the spread continues between Trump and Biden and the political tsunami comes to shore Dems in Bucks County will oust Fitzpatrick and Dems in other areas of Pa will keep Cartwright and put in DePasquale.

  4. What the hell is up with these scrawled CAPTCHA codes that are piled on top of each other and run together, so that it takes 3 tries to get what they are supposedly meant to be?

  5. GOP has long been a negative influence of America. Trump has pushed it to extremes that make it evident to even the dumbest people, but some refuse to see what is in front of their eyes. They are called the Trump base.

  6. Trump is toast. Republican rats are going to start distancing themselves soon.

    We cannot let people forget how modern day Republicans supported the lies and the corruption of the Trump Administration. The GOP sold their souls for tax cuts for the super rich. Pathetic.

  • Who are you voting for in the PA Supreme Court race?

    • Dan McCaffery (61%)
    • Carolyn Carluccio (37%)
    • Still undecided (2%)

    Total Voters: 344

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