That’s the finding of the new Monmouth University Poll, which has Clinton at 48% and Trump at 40%. Gary Johnson received 6% and Jill Stein 1%.
This is the first Monmouth survey of PA, which is regarded by FiveThirtyEight as one of the best pollsters in the nation.
In an interesting though expected development, Trump took independents (39/36) while Clinton took moderates (50/35). Polls typically show those on the right prefer to be called conservatives rather than Republicans, and those on the left prefer to be called Democrats rather than liberals.
Of course, Trump finished ahead with Republicans (81/9) and conservatives (67/21) while Clinton lead Democrats (86/9) and liberals (83/9). Note the discrepancy between Hillary’s support on the left and Donald’s on the right.
There was a wide gender gap in this contest. Trump is ahead with males 44% to 40% and females go with Clinton by a 55% to 37% margin.
Additionally, Clinton is +22 (53/31) with 18-49 year olds and Trump is +6 (49/43) with those over 50.
Hillary is ahead both with those who have a college degree, 49% to 35%, and even those that don’t, 47% to 45%.
When it comes to income, Clinton leads among those making less than $50,000 (54/35) and those making more than $100,000 (50/38). Trump is the favorite of those making between $50,000 and $100,000 (46/42).
Finally, the biggest gap is racial. Among black, Hispanic and Asian voters Clinton holds a mammoth 85-point advantage (90/5). Trump holds a smaller lead among whites (48/39).
Both candidates have terrible favorability ratings.
In fact, a majority have unfavorable opinions about Clinton and Trump. Hillary’s split (36/51), however, is still slightly better than Donald’s (31/54).
The Democrat does a lot better, though, when the question is whether they’ll be “looking out for the little guy”. 45% believe Clinton will do a good job on that front, against 48% who think she’ll do a bad job. Just 37% think Trump would do a good job while 54% believe he’d do a bad job.
Clinton’s strength lies in the Southeastern part of the state (62/29), including Philadelphia and its suburbs.
Meanwhile Trump is strongest (58/28) in the Northeastern and Central parts of the commonwealth. Somewhat surprisingly, Trump’s advantage in the West is rather low (47/40), considering how well he should be doing in Appalachia. Perhaps Pittsburgh and Erie are holding his margins down.
“It looks like Clinton’s got a friend in Pennsylvania, particularly in the Philly suburbs,” observed Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. “A key factor boosting Clinton’s support there is that about half of white voters in this region have a college degree, compared to just over one-third in the rest of the state.”
The Monmouth University Polling Institute conducted this survey from August 26th to 29th. They contacted 402 likely voters. Interviews were conducted by a live caller in English, including 351 drawn from a list of registered voters (200 landline/151 cell phone) and a random digit dial supplement of 51 cell phone interviews. The margin of error is +/- 4.9%.