Monmouth Poll: Clinton 48% Trump 40%

Hillary-Clinton HappyHillary Clinton holds a single-digit but significant lead in Pennsylvania over Donald Trump.

That’s the finding of the new Monmouth University Poll, which has Clinton at 48% and Trump at 40%. Gary Johnson received 6% and Jill Stein 1%.

This is the first Monmouth survey of PA, which is regarded by FiveThirtyEight as one of the best pollsters in the nation.

Demographics

In an interesting though expected development, Trump took independents (39/36) while Clinton took moderates (50/35). Polls typically show those on the right prefer to be called conservatives rather than Republicans, and those on the left prefer to be called Democrats rather than liberals.

Of course, Trump finished ahead with Republicans (81/9) and conservatives (67/21) while Clinton lead Democrats (86/9) and liberals (83/9). Note the discrepancy between Hillary’s support on the left and Donald’s on the right.

There was a wide gender gap in this contest. Trump is ahead with males 44% to 40% and females go with Clinton by a 55% to 37% margin.

Additionally, Clinton is +22 (53/31) with 18-49 year olds and Trump is +6 (49/43) with those over 50.

Hillary is ahead both with those who have a college degree, 49% to 35%, and even those that don’t, 47% to 45%.

When it comes to income, Clinton leads among those making less than $50,000 (54/35) and those making more than $100,000 (50/38). Trump is the favorite of those making between $50,000 and $100,000 (46/42).

Finally, the biggest gap is racial. Among black, Hispanic and Asian voters Clinton holds a mammoth 85-point advantage (90/5). Trump holds a smaller lead among whites (48/39).

Favorables

Both candidates have terrible favorability ratings.

In fact, a majority have unfavorable opinions about Clinton and Trump. Hillary’s split (36/51), however, is still slightly better than Donald’s (31/54).

The Democrat does a lot better, though, when the question is whether they’ll be “looking out for the little guy”. 45% believe Clinton will do a good job on that front, against 48% who think she’ll do a bad job. Just 37% think Trump would do a good job while 54% believe he’d do a bad job.

Geographics

Clinton’s strength lies in the Southeastern part of the state (62/29), including Philadelphia and its suburbs.

Meanwhile Trump is strongest (58/28) in the Northeastern and Central parts of the commonwealth. Somewhat surprisingly, Trump’s advantage in the West is rather low (47/40), considering how well he should be doing in Appalachia. Perhaps Pittsburgh and Erie are holding his margins down.

“It looks like Clinton’s got a friend in Pennsylvania, particularly in the Philly suburbs,” observed Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. “A key factor boosting Clinton’s support there is that about half of white voters in this region have a college degree, compared to just over one-third in the rest of the state.”

The Monmouth University Polling Institute conducted this survey from August 26th to 29th. They contacted 402 likely voters. Interviews were conducted by a live caller in English, including 351 drawn from a list of registered voters (200 landline/151 cell phone) and a random digit dial supplement of 51 cell phone interviews. The margin of error is +/- 4.9%.

August 30th, 2016 | Posted in Features, Front Page Stories, Presidential, Top Stories | 8 Comments

8 thoughts on “Monmouth Poll: Clinton 48% Trump 40%”

  1. Marie says:

    Hey Tim. Your stupidity is surging.

    Trump still has no path to victory. He is succeeding in angering and misleading scores of uneducated people.

    So – there’s that ….

  2. @Isaac L. says:

    Yup it’s not just the 100% of the millennial generation anymore. Many families don’t use or even have landlines anymore. A ton only communicate through cell phone. If not cell, then through email on a computer or a text on a cell phone. I only call and talk with my parents and siblings through cell. We don’t even answer the landlines anymore so not sure why we even have them

  3. @Tim says:

    You are even using the anointed nickname. How cute!

  4. Tim says:

    Trump is now surging. These numbers will shift rapidly in September as voters realize what a fraud Crooked Hillary really is and come to the realization that she is not up to the rigors of the job.

  5. G says:

    There is a good reason she should invest in PA. The senate!

  6. Isaac L. says:

    . – it’s a funny concept, isn’t it? My parents got rid of their landlines years ago. I haven’t had a landline in close to 10 years. Most kids these days have never had one. I really enjoy the contrast of a poll coming out with a rather poor and antiquated methodology followed by one the very next day that is an example par excellence.

    PA Progressive – you’re probably spot on. Maybe not 20, but within spitting distance. No sense in wasting the money running up the score just for bragging rights when states like Georgia and Arizona (!) might be in play.

  7. PA Progressive says:

    If HRC decided to invest the resources, she would win by 20 points. But she knows PA is a W for her, so she will invest elsewhere.

  8. . says:

    That is what happens when you poll to include these things called cell-phones which are pretty popular today unless you live under a rock.

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