Democrat John Fetterman has better favorability and trust numbers than Republican Mehmet Oz and holds a 10-point lead according to the latest poll from Monmouth University.
Fetterman, the Pennsylvania lieutenant governor, has a 49-39 lead over Oz, the heart surgeon turned TV personality. Thirty-two percent of the respondents indicated that they would “definitely” vote for the Democrat and 17 percent said “probably.” Those numbers were 23 and 16 for the GOP candidate.
It does not look like third-party candidates will impact the race. Respondents were asked if they heard of Erik Gerhardt (Libertarian), Richard Weiss (Green) and Daniel Wassmer (Keystone) and 4 of 5 indicated that they had definitely not heard of them and only 3-4% had favorable ratings of any of the trio.
Oz has a net negative personal rating (minus-16) with 36 percent favorable and 52 percent unfavorable. Fetterman, on the other hand, is a plus-5 with 47 percent favorable and 42 percent unfavorable.
“Fetterman has the edge when you look at basic candidate preferences. Oz will need to overcome his personal negatives or shift the issue picture to stay competitive,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
The respondents identified the country’s top issues as inflation (31%) and the economy (30%) with immigration (14%) and abortion (13%) coming in third and fourth. When asked about the issues that will affect their vote for Senator, Republicans said the economy was No. 1 (72%), while Democrats opted for reproductive rights (59%).
“The economy is an issue which could help Oz, but Fetterman currently has enough crossover appeal to negate it. In fact, the poll shows Fetterman is running stronger than the Democratic fundamentals in Pennsylvania would suggest,” said Murray.
The PoliticsPA moving average of polls for the Pennsylvania Senate seat shows Fetterman with a +9.7 lead over Oz with the Democrat leading all 16 polls.
Other poll highlights include:
- 70% believe that the country is on the wrong track
- Respondents were split on who they would rather see in control of Congress – Republicans 47%, Democrats 46%
- President Joe Biden is still underwater with a minus-13 favorability rating (43 favorable, 56 unfavorable)
- Compared to past elections for Senate, 42% are more enthusiastic than usual, while nearly half (48%) remain about the same
- Just 3 in 5 (62%) of respondents feel that Biden won the 2020 election “fair and square”
The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from September 8 to 12, 2022 with a probability-based random sample of 605 Pennsylvania voters drawn from a list of active registered voters who participated in at least one general election since 2016 or have newly registered since the 2020 election. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design).