In a new Monmouth University poll Democratic candidate Conor Lamb holds a six point lead over Republican Rick Saccone.
Based off their model of high Democratic turnout, similar to what has happened in other special elections this year, Lamb holds a 51% to 45% lead. Across all three of the models, Lamb holds a lead over Saccone.
Part of the lead for Lamb comes from his favorability over Saccone’s. Lamb has a 53 favorable 33 unfavorable rating, versus Saccone’s 47-43 favorable-unfavorable rating.
“This district has voted overwhelmingly Republican in recent elections, but a large number of these voters have blue-collar Democratic roots. Lamb seems to have connected with them,” director of Monmouth University Polling Institute Patrick Murray said.
The poll, taken ahead of President Trump’s visit to the district Saturday, shows that his decision to place a tariff on steel and aluminum imports didn’t change the way 96% of the district plans to vote.
The respondents were evenly split, 42-42, on whether they want Republicans or Democrats to control Congress.
The poll was conducted from March 8th to 11th of 503 people using telephone calls. The poll’s margin of error is 5.1%.