A pair of Pennsylvania Democratic statewide incumbents hold several point leads over their GOP challengers, while the race for the Auditor General open seat is in a dead heat.
A Monmouth University poll released on Wednesday morning of registered voters in the state shows Attorney General Josh Shapiro and Treasurer Joe Torsella leading in their reelection bids, while Democrat Nina Ahmad and Republican Tim DeFoor are neck and neck for the Auditor General race.
Shapiro leads Heather Heidelbaugh, a former Allegheny County Councilwoman and Pittsburgh-area attorney, by 10 points, 51-to-41, in the race for Attorney General among registered voters in the state, while 7% remain undecided. Torsella leads Stacy Garrity, an Iraq War veteran and businesswoman, by 5 points, 45-to-40, among registered voters in the state in the race for Treasurer, while 13% are undecided. In the race for Auditor General, 43% of registered voters said that they would vote for Ahmad, a former Deputy Mayor of Philadelphia, while 41% said that they’d vote for DeFoor, a Dauphin County Controller, and 12% that said they are undecided.
— MonmouthPoll (@MonmouthPoll) September 2, 2020
All three Democrats maintain their leads in the high likely voter turnout model and the low likely voter turnout model, although the margins do shift a bit in each race.
Shapiro leads Heidelbaugh by 11 points, 52-to-41, among likely voters in the high turnout model, while 6% remain undecided. The margin narrows again just slightly among likely voters in the low turnout model with Shapiro leading Heidelbaugh by 9 points, 51-to-42, with 6% remaining undecided. Shapiro’s lead in all three models are beyond the poll’s margin of error.
Torsella also holds a 5 point lead over Garrity, 46-to-41, among likely voters in the high turnout model, while 12% remain undecided. Torsella leads Garrity by just 3 points, 45-to-42, among likely voters in the low turnout model. The incumbent Treasurer’s lead over the GOP challenger is within the margin of error in the likely voter low turnout model.
Ahmad leads DeFoor by 3 points, 45-to-42, among likely voters in the high turnout model and the low turnout model. 11% remain undecided in the likely voters in the high turnout model, while 12% are undecided in the likely voter low turnout model. Ahmad’s lead in each poll are within the poll’s margin of error.
While each candidate has overwhelming support within their party, two of the Republican candidates have the edge with Independent voters polled.
Starting with Treasurer, Garrity leads Torsella by 7 points, 42-to-35, among Independent voters polled. However, Torsella has more support within his party in comparison to Garrity in the GOP. 82% of Democrats polled said that they will vote for Torsella, while 10% of Republicans said that they’d back the incumbent Democrat. 79% of Republicans polled said that they will vote for Garrity, while only 6% of Democrats said they’d vote for the GOP challenger.
In the race for Auditor General, DeFoor leads Ahmad by 10 points, 44-to-34, among Independent voters polled. 81% of Democrats said that they will vote for Ahmad, while 6% of Republicans said that they’d back the Democratic candidate for Auditor General. 84% of Republicans said they’d vote for DeFoor, while just 4% of Democrats said that they’d back the GOP candidate for Auditor General.
Shapiro was the lone Democrat polled of the three to lead among Independent voters as well. Shapiro leads Heidelbaugh by 7 points, 46-to-39, among Independent voters. 87% of Democrats said that they will vote for Shapiro, while 12% of Republicans said they will vote for the incumbent Democrat for Attorney General. 83% of Republicans said they will vote for Heidelbaugh, while 6% of Democrats said they will back the GOP candidate for Attorney General.
In 2016, Shapiro bested Republican John Rafferty by about 2.5 points for the open AG seat. Torsella defeated Republican Otto Voit by 6 points in the 2016 election for the open Treasurer seat. Auditor General Eugene DePasquale (D) secured two terms as AG and fended off a challenge from GOP candidate John Brown by 5 points in 2016.
Monmouth surveyed 400 Pennsylvania registered voters from Aug 28 to 31. The poll has a margin of error of +/-4.9%. FiveThirtyEight gives Monmouth an “A+” rating, although the poll does slightly leans towards Democrats.
The full crosstabs for the Monmouth University Poll can be found here.