Monmouth Poll: Shapiro, Torsella Lead Reelection Bids, Auditor General Race A Dead Heat

A pair of Pennsylvania Democratic statewide incumbents hold several point leads over their GOP challengers, while the race for the Auditor General open seat is in a dead heat. 

A Monmouth University poll released on Wednesday morning of registered voters in the state shows Attorney General Josh Shapiro and Treasurer Joe Torsella leading in their reelection bids, while Democrat Nina Ahmad and Republican Tim DeFoor are neck and neck for the Auditor General race. 

Shapiro leads Heather Heidelbaugh, a former Allegheny County Councilwoman and Pittsburgh-area attorney, by 10 points, 51-to-41, in the race for Attorney General among registered voters in the state, while 7% remain undecided. Torsella leads Stacy Garrity, an Iraq War veteran and businesswoman, by 5 points, 45-to-40, among registered voters in the state in the race for Treasurer, while 13% are undecided. In the race for Auditor General, 43% of registered voters said that they would vote for Ahmad, a former Deputy Mayor of Philadelphia, while 41% said that they’d vote for DeFoor, a Dauphin County Controller, and 12% that said they are undecided.

 

 

All three Democrats maintain their leads in the high likely voter turnout model and the low likely voter turnout model, although the margins do shift a bit in each race. 

Shapiro leads Heidelbaugh by 11 points, 52-to-41, among likely voters in the high turnout model, while 6% remain undecided. The margin narrows again just slightly among likely voters in the low turnout model with Shapiro leading Heidelbaugh by 9 points, 51-to-42, with 6% remaining undecided. Shapiro’s lead in all three models are beyond  the poll’s margin of error. 

Torsella also holds a 5 point lead over Garrity, 46-to-41, among likely voters in the high turnout model, while 12% remain undecided. Torsella leads Garrity by just 3 points, 45-to-42, among likely voters in the low turnout model. The incumbent Treasurer’s lead over the GOP challenger is within the margin of error in the likely voter low turnout model. 

Ahmad leads DeFoor by 3 points, 45-to-42, among likely voters in the high turnout model and the low turnout model. 11% remain undecided in the likely voters in the high turnout model, while 12% are undecided in the likely voter low turnout model. Ahmad’s lead in each poll are within the poll’s margin of error. 

While each candidate has overwhelming support within their party, two of the Republican candidates have the edge with Independent voters polled. 

Starting with Treasurer, Garrity leads Torsella by 7 points, 42-to-35, among Independent voters polled. However, Torsella has more support within his party in comparison to Garrity in the GOP. 82% of Democrats polled said that they will vote for Torsella, while 10% of Republicans said that they’d back the incumbent Democrat. 79% of Republicans polled said that they will vote for Garrity, while only 6% of Democrats said they’d vote for the GOP challenger. 

In the race for Auditor General, DeFoor leads Ahmad by 10 points, 44-to-34, among Independent voters polled. 81% of Democrats said that they will vote for Ahmad, while 6% of Republicans said that they’d back the Democratic candidate for Auditor General. 84% of Republicans said they’d vote for DeFoor, while just 4% of Democrats said that they’d back the GOP candidate for Auditor General. 

Shapiro was the lone Democrat polled of the three to lead among Independent voters as well. Shapiro leads Heidelbaugh by 7 points, 46-to-39, among Independent voters. 87% of Democrats said that they will vote for Shapiro, while 12% of Republicans said they will vote for the incumbent Democrat for Attorney General. 83% of Republicans said they will vote for Heidelbaugh, while 6% of Democrats said they will back the GOP candidate for Attorney General. 

In 2016, Shapiro bested Republican John Rafferty by about 2.5 points for the open AG seat. Torsella defeated Republican Otto Voit by 6 points in the 2016 election for the open Treasurer seat. Auditor General Eugene DePasquale (D) secured two terms as AG and fended off a challenge from GOP candidate John Brown by 5 points in 2016. 

Monmouth surveyed 400 Pennsylvania registered voters from Aug 28 to 31. The poll has a margin of error of +/-4.9%. FiveThirtyEight gives Monmouth an “A+” rating, although the poll does slightly leans towards Democrats. 

The full crosstabs for the Monmouth University Poll can be found here.

September 3rd, 2020 | Posted in Front Page Stories, Harrisburg, Top Stories | 5 Comments

5 thoughts on “Monmouth Poll: Shapiro, Torsella Lead Reelection Bids, Auditor General Race A Dead Heat”

  1. Chris Paradine says:

    Voting all Republican except for state treasurer. I’m curious how this study was conducted. Polls are such a small sample so it’s anyone’s chance.

  2. PA Focused says:

    This Tim DeFoor bio is being circulated around the state…after reading this…this guy should win Auditor General race in a walk…can’t understand why the Dems fielded someone so underqualified against him…

    Timothy L. DeFoor
    Republican Candidate for PA Auditor General

    Current Position:
    • Dauphin County Controller, first Elected November 2015, first and only African American to be elected as a Row Officer in the history of Dauphin County, Re-elected November 2019 with no opposition.

    Achievements as Dauphin County Controller:
    • Created Dauphin County’s first Audit Division.
    • Recovered and saved Dauphin County taxpayer’s over $1 million since taking office in January 2016.
    • Changed how Dauphin County reports it finances from an Independent Audit to a more detailed and transparent Comprehensive Annual Financial Report.
    • Started Dauphin County Controller’s Financial Literacy Initiative with Harrisburg University (HU) of Science and Technology.
    • Created the first internship program within the Controller’s Office
    • Prepared Dauphin County’s first ever Annual Retirement Fund Report
    • Lead the efforts make it mandatory for investment managers to disclose all management and investment fees.

    Professional Awards as Dauphin County Controller
    • 2017 – Received Dauphin County’s first Certificate of Achievement for Excellence in Financial Reporting from the Government Finance Officers Association for our Comprehensive Annual Financial Report for fiscal year 2016. Received subsequent awards for fiscal years 2017 and 2018. 2019 is being prepared.
    • 2017 – Received Dauphin County’s first Outstanding Achievement in Popular Annual Financial Reporting certificate from the Government Finance Officers Association for our Popular Annual Financial Report for fiscal year 2016. Received subsequent awards for fiscal years 2017 and 2018. 2019 is being prepared.

    Past Professional Background over +25 years of Auditing Experience:
    • Retired Special Agent – Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, Office of Attorney General. Investigated alleged violations of the Medicaid Fraud Control Act and prescription drug diversion, along with violations of the Drug Devise and Cosmetic Act
    • Former Special Investigator – Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, Office of Inspector General. Investigated allegations of fraud, waste, and abuse in state departments under the Governor’s jurisdiction. Investigated and audited state contractors to determine if Small Diverse Business minority-owned business, woman-owned business, veteran-owned business, service-disabled veteran-owned, disability-owned, were given a fair opportunity to bid with prime contractors during the Request for Proposal (RFP) process.
    • Former Internal Auditor, Quality Manager and Fraud Investigator for University of Pittsburgh Medical Center – Health Plan (UPMC) and various federal contractors. Investigated allegations of healthcare fraud, waste and abuse within Medicare, Medicaid, and commercial insurance products (UPMC-Health Plan). Also audited subject matter experts to assure they, and their personnel met the professional qualifications to do the work they were contracted, such as ISO 9001-2008 standards.

    Education:
    • Master of Science, Project Management, Harrisburg University of Science and Technology (HU), Harrisburg, PA,
    • Bachelor of Arts, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA
    • Associates of Arts, Para Legal Studies, Harrisburg Area Community College (HACC), Harrisburg, PA,
    • Susquehanna Township High School, Harrisburg, PA

    Current Community Service:
    • Chair, HACC Foundation Board of Directors (July 2018 – March 2020 Resigned as Chair to run for Auditor General)
    • Board Member, HACC Foundation Board of Directors
    • Co-Chair, HU, Financial Literacy Education Conference
    • Board Member, Chris “Handles’ Franklin (Harlem Globetrotters) Foundation Board
    • State YMCA of Pennsylvania Board of Directors
    • Life Member Greater Harrisburg Area National Association for the Advancement of Colored People
    • Member, Pennsylvania State Fraternal Order of Police and Greater Harrisburg FOP Criminal Investigators Lodge #78

    Prior Community Service (Since 2002):
    • Board Member, Susquehanna Township High School Alumni Association, 2012 to 2016
    • Trustee, Hanna Educational Foundation, 2013 to 2016
    • Chairman, STHS Alumni Annual Golf Tournament, 2011 to 2015 (which raised funds for the Susquehanna Township Vietnam Veterans Memorial and the Alumni Scholarship fund)
    • Chair, HACC Multicultural Advisory Committee, 2002 to 2005

    Awards for Community Service:
    • Law Enforcement Officer of the Year, National Organization of Black Law Enforcement Executives Central PA Chapter, November 1991
    • Honored by Harrisburg Camp Curtain Branch YMCA Black Achievers Program, 1999
    • HACC Outstanding Alumni Award, 2003
    • HACC Distinguished Alumni Award, 2005
    • Named to the HACC Circle of Distinction, 2005
    • Perseverance Award presented by the Pennsylvania Diversity Coalition, January 2016
    • Harrisburg University, Alumni Spotlight Award, March 2019
    • Bro2Go “2020 Trailblazer Award” for my social impact and contribution to Dauphin County. Award will be given on October 24th, 2020

  3. Bono says:

    C’mon people Nobody knows anything about Stacy Garrity, Tim DeFoor or even Nina Ahmed. No commercials, no newspaper interviews – Nothing and the polling is showing these results. It’s a crock. Shapiro crushes Heather when it’s all over..

  4. gulag Pittsburgh says:

    Most GOP candidates these days are riding Trump coattails and aligning themselves with this pathological liar and moronic traitor, so they deserve to lose.

  5. Thomas Paine says:

    Josh Shapiro has been exemplary as Atty Gen and been fearless in taking on the big wigs in politics and in the public in defense of the people of the State of Pa so why would the voters change Atty General? There is no reason to do so. Torsella has been fine too. The Auditor General has two unknowns which is a race. If Biden brings out voters, then Dems down ballot will win.

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