A pair of polls from Monmouth University and Suffolk University both showed Democrat John Fetterman in front in his race against Republican Mehmet Oz for Pennsylvania’s open U.S. Senate seat.
Monmouth’s survey of 608 registered voters showed Fetterman with a 4-percentage point edge over Oz, 48-44, in a poll with a 4.5 percent margin of error.
Suffolk’s poll of 500 likely voters showed the lieutenant governor up by two points, 47-45, over the celebrity doctor in a survey with a margin of error of +/- 4.4.
Nearly half of the electorate will either definitely (39%) or probably (9%) vote for Fetterman, which is similar to his support levels in prior Monmouth polls (48% total compared with 48% in early October and 49% in September). Oz, on the other hand, continues to make small but steady gains in support, with 32% definitely supporting him and 12% probably supporting. His combined 44% support level is about the same as 43% in early October and up from 39% in September.
“The month-to-month shifts in support for Oz are not statistically significant. The overall trend suggests he has been chipping away with some voters who have not been completely comfortable with him, but that mainly happened prior to the debate. Fetterman’s performance may have had an impact on the margins but we don’t see any evidence of a wholesale shift in the race,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
According to the Suffolk numbers, seven percent of those now supporting other Senate candidates or undecided in the race say they would have voted for Fetterman if he hadn’t had a stroke.
“That 7% is the difference between an easy win and an all-out scramble to win this seat,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.
Fetterman says he knew the debate “wasn’t going to be easy” but defended his decision to participate in it. “I thought it was important that I show up, and I did,” he said on CNN Tuesday.
Asked which candidate is more moderate, 42% now choose Fetterman, and 40% choose Oz. The GOP nominee now leads the former mayor of Braddock by 11 points among independents (43-32%), although nearly 1 in 5 are still undecided.
Elsewhere, Oz leads among men by 16 points, while Fetterman counters with an 18-point edge among women. The Republican holds a 7-point advantage among white voters, while the Democrat has a commanding 63-point split among Black voters.
According to the PoliticsPA poll tracker, Fetterman has a 1.6 percentage point lead over Oz in the average of the five most recent polls.