Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Poll: Biden 48, Trump 44
Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a slight edge over President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, according to this latest poll.
The latest Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll of likely voters in the Keystone State shows Biden leading Trump by 4 points, 48-to-44. When “leaners” were taken into consideration, Biden still held a 4 point edge, 49-to-45. The results fall within the poll’s margin of error.
According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Muhlenberg College favors Republicans by an average of 0.2% and has an overall A+ grade.
Just over half of voters, 53%, said that Trump does not deserve reelection, while 44% said that he does deserve a second term, and 3% are not sure.
Trump’s job approval rating is also under water in this latest poll. 43% approve of Trump’s handling of the presidency, while 51% disapprove, and 6% are not sure.
Something Biden and Trump have in common in this poll is that both have unfavorability ratings higher than their favorability ratings. 51% have an unfavorable view of Trump, while 42% have a favorable view of him, and 8% have a neutral/not sure opinion on the matter. 46% have an unfavorable view of Biden, while 39% have a favorable view of him, and 15% have a neutral/not sure opinion on the matter.
The economy is the most important issue in deciding likely voters’ presidential vote in the state. 20% said that the economy is the most important issue in deciding their vote in the upcoming presidential election, while none of the other 21 options surpassed double digits. The next highest issue was 7% saying COVID-19, followed by 6% saying healthcare, and 6% saying character.
Trump receives “solid ratings” on his handling of the most important issue, the economy, while he receives poor grades for his response to the second most important issue, COVID-19. 40% say that their financial situation is better since Trump took office in 2017, while 47% say it’s about the same, 10% say it’s worse, and 2% say they aren’t sure. 51% said that Trump has done a poor job handling the coronavirus outbreak, while 21% said that he’s done a good job, 17% said he did an excellent job, 9% said he’s done a fair job on the matter, and 3% aren’t sure.
10% said that Gov. Tom Wolf has done an excellent job handling the coronavirus outbreak, while 32% said the governor has done a good job on the matter, and 25% said that Wolf has done a fair job on the issue. 31% said Wolf has done a poor job handling the coronavirus outbreak and 3% aren’t sure.
Democrats have the edge over Republicans in regards to likely voters selection in their congressional district. 45% said that if the election were held today that they’d vote for the Democratic candidate in their congressional district, while 38% said they’d vote for the Republican candidate, and 17% said they aren’t sure.
Something that unites voters in the state is the way they plan to vote for the election in November. 64% said that they plan to vote in person at a polling station, while 26% said that they’ll vote by mail, and 10% aren’t sure.
A majority, 55%, said that they think the state is either very prepared or prepared to keep this November’s election safe and secure, while 20% said they think the state is either not very prepared or not prepared at all, and 25% said they aren’t sure.
39% consider voter fraud the biggest threat to the state having a safe, secure, and accurate election in November, while 30% said that suppression of individuals from voting is the biggest threat. 14% said that foreign interference in the election should be considered the biggest threat to Pennsylvania having a safe, secure, and accurate election in November, followed by 7% saying voting machines malfunctioning, 4% saying other, and 7% who aren’t sure.
The matchup between Biden and Trump has moved quite a bit when looking at the three most recent surveys from Muhlenberg College. The Morning Call reports that the survey from December showed Biden leading Trump by 9 points, while February’s survey showed the two tied.
This latest poll showing Biden leading Trump by 4 points in the state shows a bit of a tighter matchup in comparison to some other recent polls.
The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 5.7 points in Pennsylvania.
This poll, surveying 416 likely voters in Pennsylvania, collected data between August 11-17, has a margin of error of +/- 5.5%.
The full survey can be found here.