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Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Poll: Biden 48, Trump 44

Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a slight edge over President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, according to this latest poll. 

The latest Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll of likely voters in the Keystone State shows Biden leading Trump by 4 points, 48-to-44. When “leaners” were taken into consideration, Biden still held a 4 point edge, 49-to-45. The results fall within the poll’s margin of error. 

According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Muhlenberg College favors Republicans by an average of 0.2% and has an overall A+ grade. 

Just over half of voters, 53%, said that Trump does not deserve reelection, while 44% said that he does deserve a second term, and 3% are not sure. 

Trump’s job approval rating is also under water in this latest poll. 43% approve of Trump’s handling of the presidency, while 51% disapprove, and 6% are not sure.

Something Biden and Trump have in common in this poll is that both have unfavorability ratings higher than their favorability ratings. 51% have an unfavorable view of Trump, while 42% have a favorable view of him, and 8% have a neutral/not sure opinion on the matter. 46% have an unfavorable view of Biden, while 39% have a favorable view of him, and 15% have a neutral/not sure opinion on the matter. 

The economy is the most important issue in deciding likely voters’ presidential vote in the state. 20% said that the economy is the most important issue in deciding their vote in the upcoming presidential election, while none of the other 21 options surpassed double digits. The next highest issue was 7% saying COVID-19, followed by 6% saying healthcare, and 6% saying character.

Trump receives “solid ratings” on his handling of the most important issue, the economy, while he receives poor grades for his response to the second most important issue, COVID-19. 40% say that their financial situation is better since Trump took office in 2017, while 47% say it’s about the same, 10% say it’s worse, and 2% say they aren’t sure. 51% said that Trump has done a poor job handling the coronavirus outbreak, while 21% said that he’s done a good job, 17% said he did an excellent job, 9% said he’s done a fair job on the matter, and 3% aren’t sure. 

10% said that Gov. Tom Wolf has done an excellent job handling the coronavirus outbreak, while 32% said the governor has done a good job on the matter, and 25% said that Wolf has done a fair job on the issue. 31% said Wolf has done a poor job handling the coronavirus outbreak and 3% aren’t sure. 

Democrats have the edge over Republicans in regards to likely voters selection in their congressional district. 45% said that if the election were held today that they’d vote for the Democratic candidate in their congressional district, while 38% said they’d vote for the Republican candidate, and 17% said they aren’t sure. 

Something that unites voters in the state is the way they plan to vote for the election in November. 64% said that they plan to vote in person at a polling station, while 26% said that they’ll vote by mail, and 10% aren’t sure. 

A majority, 55%, said that they think the state is either very prepared or prepared to keep this November’s election safe and secure, while 20% said they think the state is either not very prepared or not prepared at all, and 25% said they aren’t sure. 

39% consider voter fraud the biggest threat to the state having a safe, secure, and accurate election in November, while 30% said that suppression of individuals from voting is the biggest threat. 14% said that foreign interference in the election should be considered the biggest threat to Pennsylvania having a safe, secure, and accurate election in November, followed by 7% saying voting machines malfunctioning, 4% saying other, and 7% who aren’t sure. 

The matchup between Biden and Trump has moved quite a bit when looking at the three most recent surveys from Muhlenberg College. The Morning Call reports that the survey from December showed Biden leading Trump by 9 points, while February’s survey showed the two tied.

This latest poll showing Biden leading Trump by 4 points in the state shows a bit of a tighter matchup in comparison to some other recent polls. 

The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 5.7 points in Pennsylvania. 

This poll, surveying 416 likely voters in Pennsylvania, collected data between August 11-17, has a margin of error of +/- 5.5%. 

The full survey can be found here.

101 Responses

  1. I am a conservative who supports strong enforcement of our borders, but I am appalled at the actions of Trump campaign officials and Trump associates like Steve Bannon. Stealing money from people who wanted to support conservative values.
    Just today, in a newly-discovered video clip from a 2019 We Build the Wall telethon, Steve Bannon jokingly brags about being on a “million dollar yacht” with Brian Kolfage, who Bannon quips paid for the yacht with “all that money” from donors.

    Both men were arrested yesterday – Bannon was actually on a yacht — and charged with fraud and money laundering.

  2. Rumor is the FBI is investigating Ray Zaborney and his multiple lobbying and non profit firms. Check out the story on spotlightpa

  3. In 46 years, Biden managed to run for President yet dropped out twice , he was caught lying saying he was at the top of his law class . Wrong .

    He managed to write a bill and pass it that put thousands in jail , both poor white last and blacks . he said the bill was “great”. Trump reversed this bill and released thousands who have found jobs . Prove me wrong .

    Joe managed to be friendly Ukraine political leaders and got Hunter a job making 800,000 dollars , Pelosi and Schumer did nothing .

    Joe voted to release 150 billion dollars to Iran

    .Joe plagiarized tons of speech’s , that’s why he dropped out in 1987 .Joe said he ranked 75 out of 85 , CBS found he wax at the bottom at 586 out of 650 , prove me wrong .

    Joe and Obama ran up the tab flying John Kerry to Iran payed by the US tax payers . Joe doesn’t golf , he spends his time in his basement

  4. In 46 years, Biden managed to avoid declaring bankruptcy six times. He managed to avoid having more than a dozen key staff members he said were “great” when he hired them be called by him “dumb” when they left in disgust. He managed to be friendly with political opponents whereas Drumpf can’t even speak civilly to Pelosi or Schumer. He didn’t take a $90 million tax loss. Yes, he partially plagiarized one speech, but he didn’t pay someone to cheat on his behalf and take his college entrance exam for him. And he didn’t finish last in his class as Trump did at Penn (prove me wrong). He didn’t run up nearly $200 million in taxpayer expenses jus so he could play and cheat at golf.

  5. Biden’s speech stirs up sense of déjà vu – same old lies disguised as new promises, little more than a wolf in sheep’s clothing

  6. Biden gave an Arm Chair Quarter Back plan last night by telling us what he would have done different than Trump yet he hasn’t really done anything in his 43 years in government other than put poor black and white Americans away in jail for years . It was TDS
    displayed all week with Sleepy Joe nailing the coffin on
    a dead party .

  7. One way to describe Biden last night..
    “Two-Hour Trump Derangement Syndrome Imfomercial.”

  8. Bannon is a small fish compared to the Clinton’s Foundation and Hunter Biden’s 800,000 a year gig in Ukraine . Then you have the Obama’s who flooded
    his administration with Muslim Brotherhood thugs . You never see or hear this on the news .

    Bannon is too small , go after the Clinton’s , the Biden’s and the Obama’s !

  9. The FBI is investigating Ray Zaborney and his multiple lobbying and non profit firms.

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