A new Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll shows the Democratic candidate with a 7 point lead in the race for the open seat in the newly drawn 7th Congressional district. The poll shows Democratic candidate Susan Wild leading GOP candidate Marty Nothstein 48-41, with the Libertarian candidate Tim Silfies bringing in 5% of the vote “when voters who are less certain but leaning toward a particular candidate are included.”
The Morning Call describes the lead for Wild as a “significant, but not insurmountable edge” over Nothstein. 411 likely voters in the district were interviewed for this poll conducted Oct 14-18. The margin of error is +/- 5.5%.
The candidates share identical numbers on being viewed unfavorably, but the Democrat holds a significant favorable rating advantage.
Wild holds a 41% favorable view, with 32% viewing her unfavorably, 15% unsure, and 12% haven’t heard of her. Nothstein holds a 29% favorable rating, with 32% viewing him unfavorably, 19% unsure, and 21% haven’t heard of him. The Morning Call reports that the Libertarian candidate’s support is evenly distributed among Democratic, Republican, and Independent voters, but most polled haven’t heard of him. 57% polled said they have never heard of Silfies, while 7% view him favorably, 9% unfavorably, and 27% are unsure.
A majority of the newly drawn district was represented by former GOP Rep. Charlie Dent. The article cites Dent as a “rare moderate” who “remains popular among district voters.” 38% polled want the next Congressional representative to have similar political ideology to Dent, while 25% would like the next representative to be more conservative and 25% would like the next representative to be more liberal than the retired Congressman.
The newly drawn district went to Sec. Hillary Clinton by a slim margin in 2016, although those polled were split evenly 44-44 on voting for Clinton and Trump in the Presidential election.
In this poll, Trump is viewed favorably by 42% of those polled, while 54% view him unfavorably.
Out of six options of what is most important to likely voters in the district, economic issues/jobs and healthcare led by a significant margin. 20% polled said economic issues/jobs was the top issue driving congressional voters, with 19% saying healthcare as the top issue. Stopping Trump/electing Democrats and taxes were tied up a 8% each for most important issue, while 5% each selected helping Trump/Republicans and education as the top issue.
45% polled said their Congressional vote is a message that more Democrats are needed to oppose Trump, while 36% said that more Republicans are needed in Congress to support Trump’s agenda.
The full data/story with additional statistics can be found here.
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9 Responses
How many big races is Cold Spark gonna blow this cycle?
They lucked into a victory in 2010 when Toomey was able to ride the Tea Party wave to victory, and Cold Spark are gonna keep on riding that donkey ’til it collapses. There’s a sucker born every minute and plenty of credulous candidates to be milked.
Bet they’re gonna be surprised when Silfies wins this thing.
Who?
You mean Rick Santorum was allowed to reproduce??? OMG!!!
Who is he taking about? The 3rd party guy?
She definitely is in the driver’s seat. However, it is far from over. I have to say that the Dems always had the rep as having the better GOTV. I no longer think that is accurate. Where I live, PA 6, the R’s are all over the place. The D’s are not to be seen. Now, I expect that Chrissy will easily win. The R’s may save some downticket races with all the activity. I just shake my head. The R’s were also active around here in 16 while the D’s were silent.
The D’s got complacent in 2016, both in GOTV and voters who sat it out. For the 3 elections in PA since (Primary/General 2017 and Primary 2018), Dem turnout is up and GOP turnout appears flat, when compared to similar prior off-year elections.
In terms of PA registration, as of Oct 1st, 46% of new registrations were Dem and only 26% were Republican, with the remaining 27% Indy/3rd party.
The bulk of the registrations are young people under 30.
I hear you and I do think the Democrats will have a good night in PA. However, it could be better and I would love to see more activity. Frankly, we all know that people under 30 are not reliable voters.