A new poll from MoveOn.org and Public Policy Polling reveals the government shutdown may be threatening the re-election chances of Rep. Jim Gerlach. According to their survey, the Congressman’s approval rating currently stands at 34% while 43% of respondents disapprove.
When asked to chose between Rep. Gerlach or a Democratic opponent, Gerlach trails the Democrat 46%-41%. When those polled are informed that the Congressman supported the shutdown, he trails a generic Democrat 48%-41%.
Only 31% and 33% of respondents respectively support a government shutdown or refusing to lift the debt ceiling in order to prevent the implementation of Obamacare.
The survey polled 821 registered voters from Pennsylvania’s 6th district.
Additionally, 56% of those polled have an unfavorable opinion of the Tea Party while only 34% have a favorable opinion. When asked if they would be more or less likely to support Rep. Gerlach because of the shutdown, 56% of respondents said they would be less likely compared to just 30% would said they would be more likely to support him.
This poll comes just a few days after surveys from the same organizations showed that other southeast PA Republicans Pat Meehan (R-Delaware) and Mike Fitzpatrick (R-Bucks) were on worse ground thanks to the shutdown.
As with any poll commissioned by an interest group, the results should be taken with a grain of salt. PPP is a Democratic polling firm. Although it has received criticism about its methods, its 2012 results were highly accurate.
The performance of a “generic” Democrat doesn’t necessarily correspond with the election outcomes in any given race. The party will have to nominate an actual candidate with advantages and flaws that will affect the voter’s ultimate choice.
In Gerlach’s case, this week PoliticsPA took a deep look at the past decade of election results in his district. The results show why no Democrat has yet announced interest in a bid in PA-6.
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11 Responses
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Gerlach should feel vulnerable, rightfully so.
His support of the process and mechanism that caused the stupid shutdown cost us money and lost opportunities.
Trivedi should be considered- in terms of how he would have acted, in place of Gerlach. Rightfully so.
Trivedi would certainly have served district-6 far better, in this case.
If Gerlach has experience in DC, he needs to be able to utilize it to provide leadership in the right direction, not get us into such stupidly hazardous situations. Otherwise, his claims for potential capabilities are pointless and utterly useless, like a limp, wet teabag
This shutdown is doing serious damage to the economy and those in our our district who provide services to the federal government services who cannot get paid during this shutdown!! That includes me and people who work with me. I’m an R and voted for Gerlach, but I will not be voting for him again. What, specifically, has he done with his R colleagues in Congress to get us past this silly mess – other than taking positions and posturing. It is truly kid’s stuff. I would like to hear specifically what he has done. I will not be voting for him again!!!! I plan to tell everyone I know NOT to vote for him again – and why!!!
Gerlach is a good Congressman. He is certainly not a Tea Party candidate. He serves the 6th well and will get re-elected.
No doubt Jim Gerlach is feeling heat over shut down and debt ceiling but his vulnerability is greatly exaggerated.
Jim Gerlach is a smart, experienced, decent man with solid values. Jim Gerlach is an American nationalist who is grateful for being born American inheriting America’s exceptional and uniques Constitution from the 56 signers of the Declaration of Independence and 39 signers of the Constitution. Like me, Jim is grateful he won the geographic lottery. No Democrat is a match for him.
If Trivedi was such a poor candidate, why did they run him a second time? I would think a surgeon from the Iraq War would be a more marketable candidate than a NARAL president. If it’s the case that Trivedi was a horrible candidate, then it only proves how thin the Democratic bench is in the 6th.
Some people who post on here build there case based on one poor candidate. How close was Gerlachs wins against Lois Murphy and Dan Wofford, KSJW??
I see very little chance of Gerlach losing in ’14.
@Observer, Gerlach had 14 point wins prior to redistricting into an more Republican district. Keep drinking the Koolaid.
PPP was THE most accurate polling shop last year – go look it up, tea drinkers. So take it with a grain of salt, Jimmy – and you will end up where Karl Rove took Mittens Romney. Whatever your “analysis” shows – Gerlach has survived time and again only by the narrowest of margins. By refusing to sign the discharge petition, he has just submitted his retirement papers as an elected politician. Buh-bye, Jimmy!
Time to retread Manan Trivedi for another run? Bwahahahahaa.