A pair of polls commissioned by a national liberal group shows two Pa. Republican congressmen losing ground over the government shutdown.
The wide poll release is an effort by MoveOn.Org to add to the pressure on Reps. Mike Fitzpatrick (R-Bucks) and Pat Meehan (R-Delaware).
Though the won re-election by 13% and 19% in 2012, respectively, the surveys released Sunday suggest the shutdown could make them more vulnerable in 2014.
Fitzpatrick, PA-8
Public Policy Polling surveyed 809 registered voters in PA-8 from October 3-4. 42% identified as Republicans, 39% as Democrats.
Respondents said they disapprove Fitzpatrick’s job performance by a narrow margin, 43% to 42%. In a head to head matchup, a generic Democratic challenger edged him 46% to 44%.
64% to 32%, respondents said they oppose, “Congress shutting down major activities of the federal government as a way to stop the health care law from being put into place.”
54% of respondents said they would be less likely to vote for Fitzpatrick is he supported a shutdown. 33% said they would be more likely.
57% to 31%, respondents said they oppose, “Congress holding back on increasing the nation’s borrowing limit, which could result in a default, as a way to stop the health care law from being put into place.”
The Tea Party is viewed unfavorably 58% to 29%.
Finally, the pollster repeated the head to head matchup question “Now that you know Congressman Fitzpatrick supported the government shutdown”. The numbers moved 6 points in the generic Democrats’ favor, 50% to 42%.
Meehan, PA-7
Public Policy Polling surveyed 672 registered voters in PA-7 from October 3-4. 48% identified as Republicans, 35% as Democrats.
Respondents said they disapprove Meehan’s job performance by a double-digit margin, 39% to 28%. In a head to head matchup, a generic Democratic challenger edged him 43% to 40%.
62% to 31%, respondents said they oppose, “Congress shutting down major activities of the federal government as a way to stop the health care law from being put into place.”
55% of respondents said they would be less likely to vote for Meehan is he supported a shutdown. 30% said they would be more likely.
55% to 32%, respondents said they oppose, “Congress holding back on increasing the nation’s borrowing limit, which could result in a default, as a way to stop the health care law from being put into place.”
The Tea Party is viewed unfavorably 54% to 35%.
Finally, the pollster repeated the head to head matchup question “Now that you know Congressman Meehan supported the government shutdown”. The numbers moved 3 points in the generic Democrats’ favor, 47% to 41%.
Messaging battle
Fitzpatrick and Meehan are 2 of 24 GOP Congressmen around the country tested by this series of MoveOn.org/PPP polls.
As with any poll commissioned by an interest group, the results should be taken with a grain of salt. When a group pays for a poll, in this case MoveOn.org, they get the final say about the wording of questions.
Case in point: the question about the “borrowing limit.” Almost any voter who has heard of this knows it by another term, the “debt ceiling.” Using the word “borrowing” instead of “debt” affects the poll outcome in a way that doesn’t mirror the actual public debate.
PPP is a Democratic polling firm, although it was credited with highly accurate polling in 2012.
Additionally, the performance of a “generic” Democratic doesn’t necessarily correspond with the party’s chances in any given race (especially in Meehan’s case; he has not declared opponent). Plus polls of “registered voters” versus “likely voters” tend to advantage Democrats.
All of that said, the poll results make clear that Democrats will try to repeat their experience with the 1995 and 1996 shutdowns, which helped lead to the re-election of President Clinton and modest gains in the House.
Both of Fitzpatrick’s declared challengers have already hit him over the shutdown. Kevin Strouse pointed out that Fitzpatrick has voted for the attempts to repeal Obamacare which precipitated the shudown.
“Talk is cheap, he said he wouldn’t take votes that would lead to a shutdown. Well now it’s time to put his money where his mouth is,” Strouse said.
Shaughnessy Naughton linked Fitzpatrick to the Tea Party, saying, “He is a hypocrite. He refused to vote for the clean spending bill that was negotiated last night and he hasn’t signed a discharge petition.”
The incumbents are clearly concerned. Both are among a small group of so-called moderate Republicans calling for a detente and a “clean” continuing resolution that would reopen the government and defer the Obamacare battle.
Fitzpatrick, Meehan, and 5 other representatives co-wrote an op-ed in the Philadelphia Inquirer to that effect on Sunday.
“We’re writing amid the first government shutdown in 17 years. This is an extraordinary time, and as a regional group of Republicans, we wanted to make clear what we’re doing and why. None of us wanted this shutdown,” they wrote. “We worked tirelessly to stop it and to keep the government funded. And that continues today.”
Of the 7 co-authors, only Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Lehigh) has voted against the GOP majority at any point during the shutdown showdown.
Keegan Gibson contributed to this report.
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10 Responses
Bob Guzzardi,
Your typical “faux Tea Bagger” who is just another rich, white main liner who doesn’t want to be taxed. I hope Bob knows that the roads he drives on were paid for by tax dollars.
You don’t need a comma before every set of quotations – that creates an unnecessary (and, for this grammar fascist, decidedly distracting) break in the intended flow of the sentence, presumably a holdover from seeing it used appropriately to offset spoken quotations, particularly after use of the verb “to say” (e.g. He said, “how’s it going?”).
While more stylistic, and I might be mistaken, but I believe AP style dictates that numbers should be spelled out when beginning a sentence, except when it’s a year. “Percent” should also be spelled out.
Content-wise, great article! Please pardon my pedantry.
@ Alec
Perhaps you might wish to supplant diatribe with an effort to defend specific policies you appear to endorse [c/o the dems].
The Tea Party of the Koch Brothers are still kicking. Every time they open their mouths an angel cries. Their control of Congress these 3 years has been a disaster for the country,along with their take over of the GOP. I have news for them. The country is rapidly changing. Their own NeoConservative policies(Bush 2 ) led to this. Politics is about compromise. Always was,always will be. Along with the GOP,your GOING DOWN.
color-commentary:
In my view, public opinion is trending towards Cruz because, despite the best efforts of the dems and the media, people are recognizing that the “shutdown”/slowdown isn’t noticeable, while the negative-impact of ObamaCare is hitting a lot of people…HARD.
Therefore, it is desirable to encourage Mike to respond favorably to the tough-love he has been bestowed [per this Press Release]. Those revel in push-polling [and its sister-nudge, the skewed-misquote] will want to know that Mike won’t sign a discharge-petition [which presumably is behavior that others will emulate].
This is Armageddon, an epic struggle, historic, and a key-event that cannot be forestalled by political rhetoric or administrative petulance; as long as Boehner remains firmly committed to Article I Section 7, ObamaCare won’t be funded.
In my view [and, per an interview aired today by Tom Sullivan of David Stockman], all that need be done by the GOP is…NOTHING! The debt-ceiling is a mirage for, if nothing else, unspent monies collected as taxation due to ObamaCare during the past three years can be spent elsewhere [rather than being squirreled-away for subsidy-candy, to be meted-out (without necessary documentation) starting on 1/1/2014].
We feel MIke’s heart is in the right place [and well-connected to his brain], but that he occasionally requires the provision of a reminder of why his “base” has remained so loyal to him…over the years.
The following was generated yesterday following another conjoint meeting of all groups comprising the TEA [Taxed Enough Already] Party Movement in Pennsylvania’s Eighth Congressional District
P R E S S R E L E A S E
October 5, 2013
We urge Congressman Fitzpatrick do everything possible to support funding the government without voting for a Continuing Resolution that funds ObamaCare.
******************
Jaime Faucette
President, Citizens for Constitutional Government
Republican Committeewoman, Sellersville 1
267-374-6201
Anastasia Przybylski
Co-Founder, Kitchen Table Patriots
Coordinator [Pennsylvania], FreedomWorks
Republican Committeewoman, Doylestown 3-2
215-534-1851
Linda Rosen
912 Patriot of Lower Bucks
215-262-3115
Rob and Lil Boysen
Coordinators [Lower Bucks], Philadelphia Tea Party Patriots
215-547-6136 [Rob & Lil Home], 267-278-0827 [Rob’s Cell], 267-278-1656 [Lil’s Cell]
Bill Harper
Co-coordinator [Lower Bucks], Philadelphia Tea Party Patriots
215-431-8438
Jim Devlin
Coordinator [Harleysville/Souderton], Philadelphia Tea Party Patriots
Republican Committeeman, Lower Salford
610-717-6978
Robert B. Sklaroff, M.D.
Republican Committeeman Abington 7-2
215-333-4900
When is move on going to do as their name says and move the hell on and die?
This explains a lot. Mike Fitzpatrick and Pat Meehan are acting like Democrats because they think need to act like Democrats to get elected. If they want to get elected by voting like Democrats, perhaps, they should consider switching parties like Pat Meehan’s political patron and mentor, Arlen Specter.
What is the point of the Tea Party supporting someone who votes with the Democrats? Let Mike Fitzpatrick run, honestly, as a Democrat and if that is what the voters of BucksCo want, then they will get it. Every House member votes on legislation that affects us all.
In my view, the issue is Obamacare and what it does to the Constitution, to The Forgotten Taxpayer who is forced to fund something he does not want, and the fundamental transformation of America. We, the people, have to decide whom we want to represent us; personnel is policy.
Fitzpatrick and Meehan can’t have it both ways — against it but voted for it. When their loyalty to their constituents was tested, they were found wanting.
F & M aren’t bad guys, they just aren’t the men of courage that our times require.
The problem is getting the DCCC to help a candidate who will tag Meehan and Fitzpatrick as the Teahadist flunkies they are.