Muhlenberg: Fetterman, Oz In Dead Heat

Oz and Fetterman

With less than a week remaining in the chase for Pennsylvania’s open U.S. Senate seat, Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz are deadlocked.

The latest poll from the Morning Call/Muhlenberg College shows the pair are even at 47 percent in a survey of 460 likely voters from October 24-28.

Fetterman held a five-point advantage – 49-44% – in the group’s last poll in September.

“This is a very competitive race,” said pollster Chris Borick, a Muhlenberg College political science professor. “From September it looks like it has been closed to the place where we have found it. It probably explains the incredible amount of attention being paid by both parties as they believe they can make this campaign ultimately successful in the end.”

According to PoliticsPA’s poll tracker, the average of the five most recent polls shows Fetterman ahead of Oz by just 0.3 percentage points.

In the Pennsylvania gubernatorial race, Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro has maintained his double-digit lead over Republican state Sen. Doug Mastriano. He has a 14-point margin, 54-40%. Last month, Shapiro’s lead was 11 points, 53-42%.

PoliticsPA’s poll tracker shows the average of the five most recent polls gives Shapiro a commanding double-digit (11.6) percentage point margin.

As has been a tradition in U.S. politics, the party not holding the White House usually makes gains in the midterm elections.

“It’s following the cyclical pattern that we so often see, and especially at the end of a race,” Borick said. “Our poll suggests that Republicans on the whole are gaining momentum in the state and I think there’s some indication that’s happening nationally.”

What that means for the 7th Congressional District seat in the Lehigh Valley is tough to say, Borick said, as he didn’t ask about individual districts for this poll. An October Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll showed U.S. Rep. Susan Wild and Republican challenger Lisa Scheller in a tight race.

“We didn’t do this at the district level,” he said, “so I can’t apply it to the 7th or 8th congressional districts, but that broader environment is really going to make the work of Democrats in these swing districts hard. They’re fighting that head wind and the head wind seems to be intensifying for Democrats to cut through right now.”

The survey has a margin of error of +/- 6 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

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