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Muhlenberg Poll: Biden, Trump In Statistical Dead Heat

Joe Biden, Donald Trump

In a telephone survey of 421 registered voters in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania between November 20 and December 13, 2023, the respondents have President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump in a statistical dead heat in the 2024 presidential race.

While the overall number has Biden with a 42-41 advantage with 16 percent unsure and a +/- 6.5% margin of error, other numbers produced by the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion were in opposition to that plus in the incumbent’s favor.

Sixty-five percent of those surveyed do not believe that Biden deserves another term in the White House, while 57% disapprove of the 46th president’s job in office. And 61 percent believe that Biden’s age works against him, deeming him “too old” to serve another term.

The numbers were not much better for 45, as nearly 7-in-10 (68%) believe that Trump does not have the right temperament to be president. Former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley would win a presidential matchup with Biden, 38-33, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis would fall, 41-39.

If that were not enough, in a mythical matchup with Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, the Keystone State boss would defeat the former president by 11 points, 48-37. Shapiro has a job approval rating of 51 percent.

Biden does so strength among women (48-36), voters 18-29 years of age (41-35), voters with a college degree (46-38) and persons of color (52-29).

Trump does better among men (47-36), voters without a college degree (45-38), Protestants (56-29) and Catholics (52-33).

Independents favored Trump by a slim 34-33 margin.

When queried about reproductive rights, 52 percent of respondents support the establishment of the right to an abortion in the state constitution, with 41% opposing this option. Most Pennsylvania voters (53%) believe the state should not allow a pregnant person to obtain a legal abortion fifteen weeks or more into a pregnancy.

The following report contains the results of a telephone survey of 421 registered voters in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania between November 20 and December 13, 2023. Respondents were interviewed in English on both landlines (84) and cell phones (337). With a randomly selected sample of respondents the margin of error for the surveys is +/- 6% at a 95% level of confidence. Margins of error for questions with smaller sample size will be larger.



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    Total Voters: 30

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