Muhlenberg/MCall Poll: Wolf 38, Schwartz 13

Wolf
Wolf

A poll commissioned by the Morning Call and executed by the Muhlenberg Polling Institute shows Wolf’s lead remains wide in the last weeks of the primary.

He took 38%, Allyson Schwartz came in second with 13%, Rob McCord in third with 11% and Katie McGinty in fourth with 2%.

When undecided respondents were asked in which direction they were leaning, Wolf’s lead expanded; Wolf won 42%, Schwartz took 16%, McCord at 14% and McGinty at 4%.

None of the competitors really gained an edge on Wolf in the last month as the last Franklin & Marshall poll showed Wolf with 33 percent of the vote to Schwartz’s 7 percent, McCord’s 6 percent and McGinty’s 4 percent, with 46 percent of voters still undecided.

In that time, Schwartz began her ad campaign and both she and McCord began attacking Wolf in appearances and on television.

The Muhlenberg College poll of 417 likely Democratic voters has a margin of error of +/-5 percentage points.

There are fewer than three weeks until the gubernatorial primary, and certainly time for movement in these results as many political analysts point to the case of the 2007 Philadelphia mayoral race where the polling mere weeks out was drastically different than the result. For those who have forgotten, Michael Nutter beat out popular Democratic congressmen Chaka Fattah and Bob Brady, State Rep. Dwight Evans as well as businessman Tom Knox for the nomination.

22 Responses

  1. Good insights Nate. Undecideds are not likely voters. While I cut my political teeth as a union member, unions have not done a good job making their members a political force to be reckoned with on Election Day. Many are Republicans and many others do not vote. They may come out in the General Election, but not the Primary Election. As long as Wolf has a decent GOTV effort, he is the hands down winner in the primary!

  2. @SEPA Dem The reason no one is concerned is because the polls were completed by different companies. The 52% poll was designed in a way to keep undecideds low, it effectively forced voters to make a decision while this poll allows people to claim to be undecided and doesn’t push them to make a final decision. There are arguments for and against each style. The first poll also focused on likely voters which will substantially alter the results as unlikely voters are more likely to be undecided (Less engaged). In all polls released to this point focusing only on those likely to vote only increases Wolf’s lead. Not all polls are created equal or use the same methodology.

    People aren’t concerned about Wolf dropping from 52% to 38% because in all likelihood he probably hasn’t actually dropped. If the other company were to do a poll today I would bet the results would be the exact same.

  3. Ron-
    Not sure of source of your 455,000 union members, but few of them are going to vote at all, and not all are registered voters (or even democrats).

    Total dem vote will be about 1 million. Less than 30%. So, I’d estimate union vote somewhere north of 100,000. I doubt most members even know who is endorsed, or adhere. Given Wolf’s projected lead (over 200,000) votes, there aren’t enough union votes to catch him.

  4. I can’t see a substantive difference between them, and no one is giving one. McCord’s plan to take the biggest cut for us from the Marcellus action is appealing. They are all excellent, and any would do a fine job getting PA turned around.

    I’ll probably still write in John Hanger, then support whoever wins as #AnyoneButCorbett.

  5. Just a question to the sages here who post: Does a poll pick up the 455,000 union members whose unions are supporting McCord? If even 35% of them vote, along with their spouses adding to that vote number, and if 70-80% of them vote with their union, it seems McCord may actually end up with 35% ?? Assuming Wolf slides down a bit, don’t we have a close race. Disclosure: I support McCord. But my question is sincere.

  6. Wolf opened up a 25 point lead in a 4 way race. He didn’t “peak.” He “peaked” when the others went on TV. This primary is over and with a 25 point lead in a 4 way race, the party seems pretty unified on this election.

  7. PAINDY1 on May 2, 2014 at 12:05 am said:
    Bob Guzzardi has become the JOHN BROWN’S BODY of the conservative movement and all those Pennsylvanians who don’t want 4 more years of necrophilia by the Republican consulting class. GUZZARDI’S TRUTH WILL GO MARCHING ON! Neither Corbett, Brabender, Gleason nor the Bakers and Nutts can stop the truth spoken by Guzzardi from being heard! http://youtu.be/bSSn3NddwFQ

  8. Is this registered voters or likely voters? I think voter turnout will be low which makes the polls somewhat less reliable.

  9. zero-
    “the next poll will be the one to watch for.The other candidates just started going negative.”

    “Zero” is the difference the ads will make in the outcome. There simple isn’t enough time (short of a major scandal) to turn this around.

    Wolf resonates and is likable. The other candidates aren’t shattering that image.

  10. A GOTV effort matched with good endorsements, matched with well placed and frequent media matched with a message of accomplishment. Two candidates fit that bill most.

    One of those two has to step on the gas and get by or stay ahead of the other. Those two are Wolf and McCord.

    If Schwartz wins, the Republicans will celebrate in the streets. If Wolf wins they’ll look at Dems stunningly, shrug and celebrate in the streets. McCord wins…crickets.

    Then we’ll all have the donneybrook of a general election we’ve all really wanted deep down…

  11. As a Wolf supporter, it looks like he peaks at 41% – 42%. I am somewhat surprised that number is so low.

  12. the next poll will be the one to watch for.The other candidates just started going negative.

  13. Like I said, it’s a sinking ship over at McCord HQ. McCord made a very bad decision by going negative. I think he’ll end up in a distant 3rd place on primary day now. Pennsylvanian’s have seen his poor character, lack of integrity, anger and arrogance. PA Dems are tired of this type of politics, we’re focused on the fall and defeating Corbett. I wouldn’t be surprised if endorsements start to jump off the titanic (the McCord campaign) in the coming weeks. It’s great that Pennsylvanian’s now see the real Rob McCord: arrogant, a liar, someone who outsourced jobs when he was in the private sector and someone who wants to divide our party.

  14. R’s should consider writing in Tom Wolf for gov. Very capable fellow and it is a positive vote as opposed to a “protest” vote for Bob G. who is a nice fellow I’m sure but won’t be a candidate in the general election.

  15. I’m waiting for the cheering and applause from the Corbett supporters.

    If you read the article people think he is someone he is not. A lot can change in a short window of time.

    However, I’m not and never was discounting the ability to purchase an election. If you win Wolf supporters here can be very proud of that.

  16. @desperate and pathetic i mean political hack robbie.This race has just started, so go put some more signs up, your gonna need them.

  17. I’m waiting for the whining and excuses from McCord and Schwartz supporters.

  18. I don’t see anyway for McCord and Schwartz to catch up with Wolf unless Wolf is found in a hotel room with Toronto Mayor Rob Ford and a dead hooker.

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