One Pennsylvania incumbent congressman finds themselves on the National Journal’s final 2020 most vulnerable House list.
NJ Hotline’s Kirk A. Bado, Leah Askarinam, and Josh Kraushaar placed Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District held by Rep. Scott Perry (R-York) as the 18th most likely House seat to flip in 2020.
There are 11 GOP held seats ranked higher on the list as more vulnerable than Perry’s seat, although the York County Republican is the sixth highest rated incumbent Republican seeking reelection in danger of losing his seat.
Perry’s race moved down one spot on the most vulnerable list from 17th to 18th in comparison to the previous rankings released in July, although he’s been on the top 20 list from their first ratings in September 2019.
NJ Hotline’s most recent ratings cite House Democrats optimism from “outsized national attention” from the presidential candidates to have a positive impact for down ballot candidates in the commonwealth, “especially in south-central Pennsylvania.”
“State Auditor General Eugene DePasquale is facing Rep. Scott Perry, and the district is a mostly blue-collar mix of medium-sized cities, suburbs, and rural areas,” Bado, Askarinam, and Kraushaar write in the ranking. “Partisan polls have shown conflicting results for the race, but Biden’s coattails may be enough to push DePasquale over the edge against an incumbent facing criticism for his response to the pandemic.”
A trio of national ratings outlets have this currently rated as the tightest congressional race this fall. Inside Elections, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report all have the race listed as a Toss-Up.
The Final Top 20 National Journal rankings can be found here.