One Pennsylvania Republican held seat remains on the National Journal’s 20 most vulnerable House seats in the country.
NJ Hotline’s Kirk A. Bado, Leah Askarinam, and Josh Kraushaar placed Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District held by Rep. Scott Perry (R-York) as the 15th most likely House seat to flip in 2020.
While there are three current GOP held seats that rank higher on the list as more vulnerable than Perry’s seat, the York County Republican is the highest rated Republican incumbent seeking reelection in 2020. The three Republican seats rated as more likely to flip, Georgia’s 7th District, plus Texas’s 23rd and 24th are all seats represented by Republicans that are retiring at the end of this current term.
In NJ Hotline’s most recent ratings released last week, they cite former Vice President Joe Biden’s emergence as the front-runner for the Democratic Party presidential nomination as beneficial to Perry’s likely opponent in the fall, Auditor General Eugene DePasquale (D). NJ describes DePasquale as a “moderate” candidate who won the district with nearly 51% of the vote during his successful 2016 bid for Auditor General, while Trump was also on the ballot. Their analysis also points out that Democratic voter registration in two counties within the 10th District has “ticked up” that has resulted in a “narrowing gap” for DePasquale to make up.
While DePasquale has emerged as the frontrunner for the seat, he still does face Tom Brier, an attorney and author, for the Democratic Party nod.
Although NJ Hotline’s most recent ratings depict trouble for Perry’s reelection chances, it is a minor improvement from their previous ratings in late September, when they had Perry’s race listed as the 9th most likely seat to flip in 2020.
A number of other national ratings outlets have Perry’s race on their radar as well.
The Washington Post’s Amber Phillips placed Perry as the seventh most likely House seat to flip in the 2020 election in their first rankings this cycle released in late August. The Cook Political Report moved Perry’s race in early August from Leans Republican to Toss Up, which it still remains today. In late November, Politico introduced their first House ratings and placed Perry’s race as a Toss Up. Roll Call currently has Perry’s race as Tilt Republican.
On the other hand, the most recent ratings from NJ Hotline did provide welcoming news for another Pennsylvania Republican – Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Bucks). In NJ’s previous ratings from September, Fitzpatrick’s seat was labeled as the 17th most likely to flip in 2020, while the latest ratings didn’t have him on the list.
The full National Journal rankings can be found here.