One Pennsylvania congressional race remains in National Journal’s 20 most vulnerable House seats in the county.
NJ Hotline’s Kirk A. Bado, Leah Askarinam and Josh Kraushaar placed Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District held by Rep. Scott Perry (R-York) as the 17th most likely House seat to flip in 2020.
There are eight GOP held seats that rank higher on the list as more vulnerable than Perry’s seat, although the York County Republican is the third highest rated incumbent Republican seeking reelection in danger of losing his seat.
Perry’s race did move down the list two spots in comparison to the previous ranking that had him as the 15th most vulnerable House incumbent and the highest rated incumbent Republican seeking reelection in a vulnerable district.
NJ Hotline’s most recent ratings released on July 22 cited Democrats being “thrilled” about challenger Euguene DePasquale being their candidate, although there should “probably be” more excitement behind former Vice President Joe Biden’s candidacy in the state.
“Democrats are thrilled about their candidate, Eugene DePasquale,” noted in the ranking. “But they should probably be more thrilled about Biden’s candidacy in Pennsylvania. According to DePasquale’s internal polling from late May, Perry led 50-47 percent. But the national environment has improved for Democrats since then, and DePasquale also enjoyed an edge in Q2 fundraising.”
“In the end, Perry’s fate, like so much of the rest of the country’s, may come down to Pennsylvania suburbs,” the rating concludes with.
Previous rankings have cited DePasquale, the state’s Democratic Auditor General, success in the district by carrying nearly 51% of the vote during his successful 2016 bid for Auditor General, while Trump was also on the ballot.
The race in the 10th Congressional District appears to be the closest House race to watch in Pennsylvania this fall, according to several national ratings outlets.
The Cook Political Report moved Perry’s race in early August from Leans Republican to Toss Up, which it still remains today. In late November, Politico introduced their first House ratings and placed Perry’s race as a Toss Up, which it still remains today. Roll Call currently has Perry’s race as Tilt Republican.
Although Perry is the lone Pennsylvania incumbent on the top 20 list, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Bucks) was on NJ Hotline’s “First Four Out” of races that didn’t quite qualify for the top 20, but still warranted recognition.
Bado wrote for NJ Hotline that Biden’s coattails in the Bucks County suburban district “should lift any generic Democrat over a generic Republican in a district Hillary Clinton carried in 2016,” although Fitzpatrick’s family history in the district coupled with his “reputation for bipartisanship” makes it a tougher flip for Democrats. He also cited internal polls on both sides; GOP polls showing Fitzpatrick leading Democratic challenger Christina Finello by double digits and Democratic backed polls showing a neck and neck race in PA1. One common denominator of all polling shows Biden leading Trump in the district, although Bado writes “the question for now is how far ahead of the president Fitzpatrick has to run to defend his seat.”
The Top 20 National Journal rankings can be found here.
The First Four Out National Journal rankings can be found here.