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NBC Moves PA to “Toss-Up”

NBC Map 7-1-2016NBC News is out with their latest electoral battleground map.

There are quite a few changes from May, the biggest being the move of Pennsylvania from “Lean Dem” to “Toss-Up”.

The other moves are as follows: New Jersey from “Lean Dem” to “Likely Dem”; Florida from “Toss-Up” to “Lean Dem”; Maine’s 2nd Congressional District (Maine and Nebraska split electoral votes by statewide and congressional district winners) from “Lean Dem” to “Toss-Up”; Nevada from “Lean Dem” to “Toss-Up”; Utah from “Likely GOP” to “Lean GOP”; Mississippi from “Lean GOP” to “Likely GOP”; Montana from “Lean GOP” to “Likely GOP”.

Despite seeing Pennsylvania, Nevada and Maine’s 2nd drift away, Clinton still holds a larger electoral lead now (255-190) than back in May (253-190) because of Florida.

“Like in May, our Tossup designations are very (small c) conservative; we’ll be more aggressive after the conventions,” NBC First Read’s Chuck Todd, Mark Murray and Carrie Dann write. “But for now, anything that appears to be a 5-point state or less sits in the toss-up column. Two forces seem to be at play here. First, Clinton is over-performing in diverse states like Florida and North Carolina — or to put another way, Trump is VASTLY underperforming in these states. The exception, however, is Nevada, where both private and public polling shows a close contest that actually leans Trump’s way right now. (Trump’s strength is Reno, by the way).”

“The second force at play is that Trump is holding his own and even slightly over-performing in states with large white working-class populations like Pennsylvania,” they continue. “(Yes, most public polls show Clinton ahead in the Keystone State, but note that Clinton’s Super PAC is now on the air there, and that Vice President Biden will campaign there with Clinton next week.) But Trump is also faring worse in more upscale white states like Utah.”

NBC is correct that Clinton has made a number of moves to shore up the Keystone State, including indications that her campaign and her main Super PAC will be running ads here soon. Also, Vice President Biden will join her on the trail in Scranton on July 8th.

In the last week, though, three separate polls have showed her with a significant lead against Trump in PA.

14 Responses

  1. Considering the KKK is a terrorist organization, I suppose one could say that Trump actually is palling around with terrorists. My how the tables have turned.

  2. Gotta Love that Common Advocate guy he says what’s on his mind and speaks the truth.

  3. Tim-

    Did you see the latest Trump tweet where he had a picture of Hillary as corrupt with money and with a Jewish Star of David? The graphic was from a White Supremacist Nazi site that was posted two weeks ago. Why is Trump reposting stuff from a “Heil Hitler” fan site?

    I’m sure you’d be more interested in the link to the site so you could have another “news” source.

  4. Hey Common, if you don’t like what the man has to say then ignore it. I mean what do you think you can do to make Diano stop? I see stuff from yourself and TIMMY, and I usually just move on.

  5. Tim- there is a reason I don’t make wild political predictions. You will eventually have to walk them back

  6. No, you’re right Dave – Crooked Hllary makes her money by giving speeches for $250k a pop, got her brother the mining permit in Haiti while she was Sec. of State, gave inside information to her son-in-law, sold uranium rights to Russian billionaire and okayed massive weapons sales to Saudi Arabia despite their dismal human rights record. In turn these people donated millions to the Clinton foundation and she lives like the 1%! Sure Dave, delude yourself into thing she will be the next president.

  7. PoliticallyActive-

    Tim –

    Trump made money by not paying his workers and contractors for the work/services they performed (causing some small companies to become bankrupt or go out of business). He’s also good at hiring illegal immigrants to save construction costs.

    So, you should be happy that Hillary doesn’t do any of that. She’s going to be the next president.

  8. Obama has done NOTHING to crate jobs! This state is hemorrhaging jobs out the wazoo! Crooked Hillary has no clue about jobs except expand government to create more jobs. The Trumpmeister is a private businessman who has been on construction sites and knows how to make a buck! This is way more than Clinton has ever done!
    Trump will win Pennsylvania and when he is elected President, you Dems will go ape and riot as you can’t believe Clinton lost! Tough luck suckers!

  9. The state map continues to look solid for Hillary. She has so many avenues to pick up 15 extra electoral votes. My guess is the decision Spend in PA is also a strategic move for senate control by increasing democratic turnout to help McGinty. The benefit for the dems in all these toss up states (except VA) is that there is a possibility that mobilizing Hillary voters will help win the senate. The question will be if the campaign sees an opening in MO and AZ with and decides to invest possibly helping senate candidates there as well.

  10. Common Advocate-

    Why “or”? Both seem likely.

    You sure seem upset for someone who doesn’t care. Are you off your meds again?

  11. Common Advocate, lay off, alright. At least two people care: Davey’s mom and Davey’s pop, and all he has to do is yell upstairs from the basement to prove it.

  12. Hey Diano – shut up. Either you are a genius or can tell the future. Neither seems likely. So stop commenting, no one care. LITERALLY NO ONE.

  13. NBC will move it back to Leans Dem. Then Likely Dem. And, election night, call it for Hillary before 10pm.

  • Does the NYC Verdict Make You More or Less Likely to Vote For Trump in 2024?

    • Less Likely (36%)
    • More Likely (34%)
    • Makes No Difference (30%)

    Total Voters: 112

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