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NBC News Exit Poll: Women Driving Force Behind Casey, Wolf Victories

Both Gov. Tom Wolf and Sen. Bob Casey coasted to double digit re-election victories on Tuesday, but exit polls from NBC gives us a look into who specifically took them over the top. Women.  

Casey was elected a third term in the U.S. Senate by carrying 55.5% of the total vote to GOP challenger Rep. Lou Barletta’s 42.8% with 99% of the votes counted in according to NBC. Wolf won by a slightly larger margin bringing in 57.6% of the total vote to GOP candidate Scott Wagner’s 40.9% with 99% of the votes counted according to NBC.

Despite both races being called relatively quickly after the polls closed, men appeared to be split on the candidates, specifically in the Senate race. Casey and Barletta were locked in with 49% of the men vote each in the NBC exit poll. Wolf won the men vote by by just 5, with 52% voting for Wolf and 47% voting for Wagner. 49% of those in the exit poll were men.

Here’s where the gaps significantly widen.

Wolf took home 65% of the women vote, while Wagner only carried 35%. Casey won just shy of the same amount garnering 63% of the women vote, when 35% of women voted for Barletta. 51% of the exit poll were women voters. 95% of black women voted for Casey, while 96% voted for Wolf.

Another key factor that can be attributed to Casey and Wolf’s decisive reelection bids were the results in Philadelphia and their surrounding counties. As expected, Philadelphia came up big for both Democratic statewide candidates. Casey carried the city of Philadelphia by nearly 400,000 vote margin over Barletta with 100% of the votes in. Wolf collected just over 400,000 more votes than Wagner in the city.

The collar counties, key bellwethers in past statewide campaigns, tell the story of where Casey and Wolf pulled away.   

Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery counties all voted for Casey and Wolf by double digits. Casey and Wolf won Delaware and Montgomery Counties by the largest margins out of these suburbs, for Casey both hovering around a 32 point margin and Wolf winning them by approximately 35 points.

Bucks County had the tightest margins of these suburbs, with Casey winning by 14 points and Wolf by 18. This comes at the same time that Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Bucks) won re-election in the 1st Congressional District, largely based in Bucks County.

The Democrats in the Philadelphia suburbs also made significant gains in the state House and Senate Tuesday.

The NBC exit polls show that President Trump’s unpopularity may be attributed to the victories for Casey and Wolf. Trump holds a -10 net approval rating in this exit poll, with 45% of voters saying they approve of his job performance, while 55% disapprove.

35% in this exit poll stated their vote for the U.S. Senate was to express opposition to President Trump, while 33% say their vote was in support of Trump and 30% say Trump did not play a factor in this race.

The full data can be found here.

5 Responses

  1. Big part of the problem is that Harrisburg lobbying firms are all good ole boy networks, run by men who only put women in junior roles or fundraising roles, not in big strategy roles. There aren’t too many women even out there who are big campaign strategists on the GOP side but those few who are, always kept under the thumb of the boys. What is so intimidating about women who think? Until this gets fixed, statewide losses with women a factor will keep happening. Testosterone laden lobbyist egos need to make room for the sake of the party.

  2. Wow. “45% of voters saying they approve of [TheRumps] job performance.” Please say this is some other state than my own PA. Unbelievable.

    1. There are large pockets of the state that worship him. Ironically, most of it is evangelical. The same people who pass judgement on everyone else’s behavior but give him a free pass. Gosh, I wonder why? We all know the real answer.

      They won in 16 because of outsized turnout in those pockets and because certain Dems fell for the divide and conquer tactics. Sadly, I see a lot of Dems who are still being easily fooled. He can win again if enough Dems sit at home or decide to vote for the idiotic Green Party.

  3. No! The Trumpers are saying that it is all Val’s fault and if only someone else was in charge and they had candidates that would embrace Trump, then they would win everywhere. I pray they go with that strategy in 20.

  4. First of all and most importantly, good reporting! Secondly, this statistic of the decisive direction women went on this campaign cycle bodes VERY VERY VERY BADLY for Republicans in Pennsylvania. Let’s lay it on the line here–Trump is not suddenly changing so what does that mean??? Means that what happened in 2018 seems to be a direction that is not going to be good for Republicans. This along with other factors is charting a grim immediate future for R’s. It should be noted as well that Wolf winning by 17 points is no easy feat. This is hard to do and shows that if Dems attract candidates who can speak to women that it will work out well for them on election day.

  • Reader Poll: Should President Joe Biden Step Aside?

    • Yes. He should step aside because of his age, declining ability to do the job. (45%)
    • No. He should not step aside. (39%)
    • Yes. He should step aside because he can't beat Donald Trump. (15%)

    Total Voters: 231

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