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NBC News/Marist Poll: Biden 53, Trump 44

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, according to this latest poll. 

According to a new NBC News/Marist poll released on Wednesday morning, Biden leads Trump by 9 points, 53-to-44, among likely voters in the state, while just 2% are undecided and 1% said other. Biden’s lead only goes down 1 point, 52-to-44, among all adults polled in the state. Biden’s lead among likely voters and adults are both beyond the poll’s margin of error.

According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Marist College favors Republicans by an average of 0.3% and has an overall A+ grade. 

Both Trump’s job approval and favorability rating are under water in this latest poll of likely voters. 45% of likely voters say that they approve of Trump’s job performance as president, while 52% disapprove. 44% of likely voters have a favorable impression of Trump, while 54% have a negative impression. 

50% of likely voters have a favorable view of Biden, while 46% view him negatively. 

Sen. Kamala Harris, Biden’s running mate, has a slight edge over Vice President Mike Pence in favorability ratings as well. 46% of likely voters have a favorable impression of Harris, while 42% have a negative impression of her, and 11% aren’t sure or never heard of her. 46% have a favorable view of Pence, while 47% view him negatively, and 7% say they aren’t sure or never heard of him. 

On four issues polled, Trump has the advantage over Biden on which candidate would better handle the economy, while the two are tied on who would better handle crime. However, the former VP opens up a double digit advantage over the president on the matters of the coronavirus pandemic and race relations. 

51% of likely voters said that Trump would better handle the economy, while 41% said that Biden would be better to handle the matter. Likely voters are split 45-to-45 on which candidate would do a better job handling crime. 53% said that Biden would do a better job dealing with the coronavirus, while 38% said Trump. 56% said that Biden would be better when it comes to dealing with race relations, while 35% said that Trump would do a better job. 

Multiple polls released since last week show Biden with a lead over Trump in the state, although the margin varies by the pollster. A Monmouth University poll of registered voters and Morning Consult poll of likely voters both showed Biden leading Trump by 4 points, 49-to-45, in the state. A Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters has Biden with an 8 point advantage over Trump, 52-to-44. A poll released on Tuesday morning from Susquehanna Polling & Research showed Biden with just a 2 point edge over Trump with likely voters, 44-to-42, which is within the poll’s margin of error.

The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 4.3 points in Pennsylvania. 

NBC News/Marist surveyed 771 likely Pennsylvania voters by cellphone and landline between Aug. 31 to Sept. 7. That polling has a margin of error of +/-4.4%. The overall poll interviewed 1,147 Pennsylvania adults and has a margin of error of +/-3.6%.

The NBC News breakdown can be found here

The full crosstabs for the NBC News/Marist poll can be found here.

2 Responses

  1. This is not a partisan assessment. It’s just the reality. Trump is not running neck and neck with Biden in Pa and this 9% spread between Biden and Trump is the political equivalent of “bad sign” for Fitzpatrick as it means Bucks County will be fired up to vote and it most definitely will not be for Trump. It’s also great news for DePasquale. The higher the spread in Pa between Biden and Trump the more likely both Dems in those congress races will win. You get a 9% spread and both Dems will win.

  • Understanding that basic education funding should/will be first, what should be the next highest priority for the General Assembly?

    • Raising The Minimum Wage (25%)
    • Legalizing Adult-Use Marijuana (24%)
    • None of the above. Something Else. (20%)
    • Economic Development (14%)
    • Higher Education (8%)
    • Public Transportation (8%)
    • Workforce Opportunities and Innovation (2%)

    Total Voters: 51

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