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NBC News/Marist Poll: Casey and Wolf Hold Double Digit Leads; Trump Sees Negative Numbers

A good sign for Democratic incumbents in PA?

A new NBC News/Marist Poll released this evening that polled registered voters and adults shows Democratic incumbents Gov. Tom Wolf and Sen. Bob Casey holding double digit leads over their GOP challengers, Scott Wagner and Rep. Lou Barletta. This same poll shows a majority of Pennsylvanians are at odds with President Trump over his job performance and his administration’s policy on tariffs.  

In regards to the races for Governor and Senate, this polling is a significant contrast from a poll released a couple days ago from the Commonwealth Leaders Fund, a conservative group, that showed Wagner and Barletta trailing by 3 points or less.

Wolf leads Wagner 54% to 40% among registered voters with 6% polled currently undecided. 51% polled have a favorable view of Wolf, while 39% viewed him unfavorably, and 10% falling in the “unsure-never heard” column.   

Wagner had a favorable view with 36% polled, while 34% held an unfavorable view of him. 30% polled for Wagner fell into the category of “unsure-never heard.”  

Casey leads Barletta 53% to 38% among registered voters with 8% undecided. 48% polled have a favorable view of Casey, with 34% viewing him unfavorably, and 18% were in the “unsure-never heard” column.   

30% polled have a favorable view of Barletta, while 24% view him unfavorably, and 45% polled fell in the “unsure-never heard” column.  

The poll, surveying 825 adults (713 registered voters) was conducted August 12-16, 2018. The margin of error for all adults is +/- 3.9 percentage points, while the margin of error for registered voters is +/- 4.2 percentage points.  

Polls of registered voters tend to lean more in the Democrats favor as opposed to likely voter polls.

The article references a significant gap in name identification between Casey and Barletta and cited ad spending as a factor. Casey’s campaign spent more than $1.5 million on the air thus far in the cycle, according to Advertising Analytics, while Barletta’s campaign has spent just shy of $60,000.

Barletta released his first television ad this week discussing school safety, while Casey has been on television for a longer period of time.

The poll also showed Pennsylvanians favoring a Democratic controlled house over the current Republican house.

47% of registered voters polled prefered that Democrats take control of Congress, while 41% want Republicans to maintain in the majority. When asked if the registered voters plan to support the Democrat in their congressional district, 51% plan to support the Democrat, with 39% set to support the Republican.

The most important factors in deciding the vote for registered voters for November’s Congressional races were “the economy and jobs” at 24% and “healthcare” being the most important for 23%. The next closest issue was “immigration” at 13%.  

Trump’s net job approval rating among registered voters was at -16%, (37% approving, while 53% disapprove). The last NBC/Marist poll in Pennsylvania was conducted last August had Trump with a -19% net approval rating.

The polled were asked specifically about Trump’s tariff policies and if they believed it was helping to protect American jobs and help the U.S. economy. 28% believed it would benefit the U.S. economy, while 46% believe it will “raise the costs of consumer good and hurt the U.S. economy.” 14% polled believe it will not have much impact either way.

The article cited which groups Trump performs most well with and what groups he has his lowest approval rating.

Trump remained popular with Republicans in Pennsylvania with an 80% approval rating. White evangelicals approve of Trump with 59%, rural adults with 58%, and whites without college degrees approving 49%.  

Trump’s highest disapproval rating was with African American at 90%, adults between the ages of 18-29 at 66%, white college graduates at 60%, and women at 59%.

Trump’s highest support is in central and western PA, while only 10% of Philadelphians approve and 30% support of Trump in the suburbs.

See the full data here.

25 Responses

  1. What the Private Corporate Main Stream Media Money Makers have not seem to grasp is that POTUS Trump is running rings around them when it comes to using small words, with easier and bigger relationships with the American Public understanding them, as MSM condemns and mocks the POTUS.

    When the Media Opinion Pundits mocks POTUS many Americans see it as they are mocking America, and when they grow angry over it more and more, they look unhinged, emotionally enraged, and are ignored!

    POTUS Trump does not attract Great Crowds wherever he goes because he is hated, he attracts such Crowds because they support him what he has been saying and more importantly what he has been doing!

    All past POTUS were just Public Relations Campaigns using clever words and phrases so has not to offend anyone and Americans got used to quit listening and attending their visits but, POTUS Trump doesn’t just talk but walks his talk, and they love seeing a POTUS that does what he said he would do, even if it comes out causing some descension and derision.

    No one in the Media or Entertainment can bring out the Crowds that Candidate and POTUS does and he has been doing it for 3 years now? The MSM still does not take Trump seriously and it is at their own demise.

    1. There could an October Surprise by POTUS Trump if he decides to release all Information on the FBI-Clinton-FISA Non-Investigations of Hillary’s Email Destructions and start of dubious Investigations on Trump Campaign based upon even more Dubious Dossiers.

      There are Two Campaign Promises still need to be kept that Trump made but is only push one to date. Merit Based Immigration and building a Wall is still mentioned at every Campaign Rally that attracts thousands. This should be a concern for Democrats once again seeing such crowds and changes in registrations as well in many communities.

      The other Campaign Promise was to Investigate Hillary and Clinton Foundation and better known with the slogan Lock Her Up! If POTUS Trump releases all Classified Information and he Trump keeps hinting he may have to get involve and do just that, it will bring out a New Investigation on Re-opening the Obstruction of Justice Destruction of Servers.

      Once such information leads to new allegations that must investigated on the Clinton Foundation, it is that kind of October Surprise that could impact on every election to keep the GOP or have DNC win the Congress in my view.

      I say so, only because POTUS like Candidate Trump does not mention things ever so slightly and then mistakes are made by his distractors that underestimate Trump’s Words and Clues that embolden his base and makes Trump critics go off the rails, that makes the Public laugh at them in the end.

  2. “Polls of registered voters tend to lean more in the Democrats favor as opposed to likely voter polls.”


    1. Or there are more registered Democrats than Republicans in Pennsylvania. Just a thought. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

    2. Actually, polls that call landline skew Republican because they bypass young voters.

    3. Three responses are apt:

      Neither this article nor the parent-piece corroborate the assumption made by d2 that a landline-contact was employed.

      Regardless of party registration, the preferable approach is to focus on likely-voters.

      It’s not yet Labor Day, and Barletta is now starting to work on name-recognition.

  3. Mike Nesmith’s record “Infinite Rider On the Big Dogma” sums up the partisan chatter when it comes to these polls. In other words, you can believe what you want and disregard the rest but the reality still remains the same which is that solid reliable polling has and has had since the Fall 2018 race for Gov started Wolf beating Scott Wagner by a considerable margin. Wagner is a lousy candidate who has mastered putting his foot in his mouth to a fine art. He also has revealed himself to have clearly not thought out his race much beforehand. This year’s GOP candidates are ideologues and lacked the smarts of a Tom Ridge or Gov Scranton or Bill Scranton, III. The polling numbers show this lack of political smarts as Wagner blunders his way through the Gov’s race. Believe whatever you wish but the reality will be Gov Wolf by at least 14 points on Nov 6th.


    1. Paul-

      The Russians aren’t helping Wagner and Barletta. Putin doesn’t have pee-tapes of them, so no reason for Russians to work on it to gain an advantage.

      1. Russians wtf are are talking about? You don’t actually belive all of that mainstream garbage do you? Oh dear…

        1. In the end, all the right wing nutters will be left with is their conspiracy theories and a growing sense of time having passed them by.

        2. Steph-

          Mainstream garbage? Do you mean the UNANIMOUS assessment of every US intelligence organization and law enforcement agency that the Russians interfered in the 2016 election, and are continuing efforts to interfere?

      2. David, your tears are as delicious today as they were on Election Night in 2016. I just can’t get enough of them.

        1. Lol. I hated to lose in 2016, but DD’s tears almost made up for it. Enjoyment of DD’s tears is non-partisan

    2. All of the final 2016 polls were in the single digits and most were in the margin of error. Why lie about something that is so easy to look up?

  5. Margin of error is much higher, these clowns didn’t include the Libertarian candidates.

    1. Only dummies vote libertarian or Green Party at this point. It’s a vote for the other side. No Jill Stein = no Donald Trump

      The “statement” the Jill Stein voters made pushed the Supreme Court to the right for the next 40 years. I hope it was with it.

  • Reader Poll: Should President Joe Biden Step Aside?

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