It’s fair to say a consensus has emerged.
This week, CNN and Cook Political Report both rated Pennsylvania as a “Lean Democratic” state in a Clinton/Trump contest.
Now, NBC News is piling on by painting Pennsylvania (light) blue.
Their complete state-by-state classifications are included below:
Likely Dem: CA, CT, DC, DE, HI, IL, ME (3 EVs), MD, MA, MN, NM, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (186 electoral votes)
Lean Dem: ME (1EV), MI, NV, NJ, PA, WI (67)
Tossup: CO, FL, IA, NE (1 EV), NH, NC, OH, VA (95)
Lean GOP: AZ, GA, MS, MO, MT (46)
Likely GOP: AL, AK, AR, ID, IN KS, KY, LA, NE (4 EVs), ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (144)
Altogether, this leaves Democrats with 253 electoral votes while the GOP has 190. Ninety-five electoral votes are classified as toss-ups. It takes 270 to win the White House.
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I agree with Mike Lavanga, especially in the case of GA. I know that GA has been trending more Dem over the years with Dems putting lot of effort put into robust Field programs in GA that has helped to turnout Dems.
In a year where the we might see large parts of the Republican electorate stay home these states will be in play more so than in other years. The point is we can’t assume anything with the dysfunction and uncertainty in the GOP these days.
Colorado and VA are clearly lean Dem
MS, GA and SC will be the biggest surprises when they go for Hillary in the fall. If you look at Obamas numbers in 2008, he did very well in these states compared to the perceived perception that these are overwhelmingly deep red. The significant African-American population who which will come out in droves to oppose a racist coupled with thousands of religious conservatives who will stay home will make these states blue, at least just for this election.
Colorado/Virginia are lean Dem, Mississippi is solid Rep, and how the hell is NJ lean Dem? Easy Democrat.