The New York Times/Siena College completed their live poll for the race in the newly drawn 8th Congressional District between incumbent Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Lackawanna) and Republican challenger John Chrin. Their poll shows Cartwright leading Chrin 52-40 with 8% undecided after 506 people responded, although 20,465 calls were made. The New York Times described the race as a “new challenge for a Democratic incumbent” courtesy of the new district lines. The margin of error +/- 4.7%.
The Democratic incumbent holds a significant advantage in favorability rating over the GOP challenger, despite President Trump holding positive numbers in his job approval rating.
53% view Cartwright favorably, 29% view him unfavorably, while 19% don’t know. Chrin has a 33% favorable rating, with 41% view him unfavorably and 27% don’t know.
The newly drawn 8th district was one of the areas Trump made significant gains in the 2016 election, compared to the GOP nominee, Gov. Mitt Romney in 2012. The new lines went for President Trump by 10 points in 2016. President Barack Obama won this area in 2012 by 12 points.
48% polled approve of Trump’s job performance, while 46% disapprove and 6% don’t know. These numbers are nearly identical to the numbers when those polled were asked if they’d prefer to see the Republican party maintain control of the House of Representatives over the Democratic party. 48% polled would like to see the GOP remain the party in the majority in the House, while 47% want the Democrats to take control and 5% don’t know.
The New York Times describes the district of having a “mix of suburban and rural communities, mostly white and middle class.” The article also states that even though Trump won this area by double digits in 2016 and Cartwright by 8 points in the same year, it is “consistent with a shift toward Republicans in old industrial areas of the Northeast and Midwest with traditionally Democratic roots.
The full data can be found here.