New York Times/Siena College Poll: Cartwright 52 Chrin 40

The New York Times/Siena College completed their live poll for the race in the newly drawn 8th Congressional District between incumbent Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Lackawanna) and Republican challenger John Chrin. Their poll shows Cartwright leading Chrin 52-40 with 8% undecided after 506 people responded, although 20,465 calls were made. The New York Times described the race as a “new challenge for a Democratic incumbent” courtesy of the new district lines. The margin of error +/- 4.7%.

The Democratic incumbent holds a significant advantage in favorability rating over the GOP challenger, despite President Trump holding positive numbers in his job approval rating.

53% view Cartwright favorably, 29% view him unfavorably, while 19% don’t know. Chrin has a 33% favorable rating, with 41% view him unfavorably and 27% don’t know.

The newly drawn 8th district was one of the areas Trump made significant gains in the 2016 election, compared to the GOP nominee, Gov. Mitt Romney in 2012. The new lines went for President Trump by 10 points in 2016. President Barack Obama won this area in 2012 by 12 points.   

48% polled approve of Trump’s job performance, while 46% disapprove and 6% don’t know. These numbers are nearly identical to the numbers when those polled were asked if they’d prefer to see the Republican party maintain control of the House of Representatives over the Democratic party. 48% polled would like to see the GOP remain the party in the majority in the House, while 47% want the Democrats to take control and 5% don’t know.

The New York Times describes the district of having a “mix of suburban and rural communities, mostly white and middle class.” The article also states that even though Trump won this area by double digits in 2016 and Cartwright by 8 points in the same year, it is “consistent with a shift toward Republicans in old industrial areas of the Northeast and Midwest with traditionally Democratic roots.

The full data can be found here.

6 Responses

  1. I’ll put my bank account out to say this is not a 12 point race. These live polls are absolute garbage. Every single one I’ve seen has dramatized the lead for democrats. This race is dead even.

    BTW, Chrin is born and raised in NEPA rightttttt around the time that Cartwright lived in Canada…who is the real carpet bagger here?

  2. This is not and I repeat NOT a Republican congressional district. Most political junkies will recall that the legendary Dan Flood represented a large part of the district for decades. As did Paul Kanjorski. The district went for Trump for the simple reason that: (1) they liked Trump and (2) the really DISLIKED Hillary. It’s that simple. Sure, if Alabama can elect the very able Doug Jones to the Senate then this district can elect an R but it is not an easy task. Just be wise that pundits and political consultants will talk of “base” and “new voters” and “core issues” and so on but let us always remember the maxim–“it is not who people are voting for but who they are voting against.”

  3. Well, hate to say this but if Trump was running for Congress, he would probably win this race. He now polls much higher than the R party. He is at, incredibly, 44% approval while the R’s are at 35%. That is why we are all of a sudden seeing him out on the road. My source is Daily Kos for those numbers btw. I know people will freak out on that but the numbers are what they are. I expect Cartwright to hold serve on this CD but it is something to watch in future races.

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