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November 3: Polling


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Top Story

1. Monmouth/Suffolk Polls: Fetterman With Edge But Within Margin

A pair of polls from Monmouth University and Suffolk University both showed Democrat John Fetterman in front in his race against Republican Mehmet Oz for Pennsylvania’s open U.S. Senate seat.

Monmouth’s survey of 608 registered voters showed Fetterman with a 4-percentage point edge over Oz, 48-44, in a poll with a 4.5 percent margin of error.

Suffolk’s poll of 500 likely voters showed the lieutenant governor up by two points, 47-45, over the celebrity doctor in a survey with a margin of error of +/- 4.4. (PoliticsPA)


Rocky Debate Erodes Fetterman’s Lead Over Oz. “The contest is up for grabs, the survey shows, with an unusually high 19% of independents undecided, even as early voting has opened.” (USA TODAY)


Fetterman’s Stroke Might Not Have a Huge Impact On The Race, But It Has Shaped His Political Identity. “In the homestretch of an extremely tight race, Fetterman is hoping surviving a stroke becomes a way to bolster his relatability — and not his kryptonite.” (Philadelphia Inquirer)

Oz Takes Risk vs. Fetterman With Trump Rally. “Former President Trump is seeking to put his imprint on the Pennsylvania Senate race with a rally in Latrobe on Saturday with Senate candidate Mehmet Oz, a risky move given Oz’s efforts to distance himself from Trump’s debunked election fraud claims.” (The Hill)

Oz Tells Supporters That Crime, Border, Inflation Are GOP’s Winning Messages. “With fewer than six full days to go before next week’s election, Republican Senate candidate Mehmet Oz rallied supporters in Elizabethtown on Wednesday, instructing them to press home a specific slate of issues that have become GOP rallying points for the crucial 2022 midterms.” (PennLive)

  • Republicans Are Going All In On Crime – And It’s Working. (Vox)
  • ‘Our Patients Will Suffer’: PA Doctors and Elected Officials Criticize Oz’s Abortion Comments. (WHYY)


Where Are They? Here is a quick look at where the candidates are today, based upon their public announcements.

  • John Fetterman: Wilkes-Barre (w/Bob Casey), Collegeville
  • Mehmet Oz: South Abington Twp.



2. Shapiro vs. Mastriano. Will The Jewish Democrat Become PA’s Next Governor?

“According to the polls, Josh Shapiro should win the Pennsylvania gubernatorial race.

The Jewish Democrat leads Republican opponent Doug Mastriano by an average of more than 10 points. As FiveThirtyEight’s aggregation tool shows, recent polls from Suffolk University, Emerson College and others got the same result: Shapiro is ahead by between 10 and 15 percentage points.

But “according to the polls” has become a loaded phrase in American politics in recent years.” (Pittsburgh Jewish Chronicle)


The Stakes: In Some Ways, Our Choices For This Governor’s Race Go Beyond The Candidates Themselves. “The difference between Gov. Doug Mastriano and Gov. Josh Shapiro will not only determine what kinds of policies get debated under that gilded dome in Harrisburg, but how.” (PennLive)

University Makes New Review of Mastriano’s Doctoral Research. “A Canadian university that granted a doctorate in history to Doug Mastriano nearly a decade before he became the Republican nominee for governor of Pennsylvania is investigating a fresh complaint about his work that makes multiple allegations of academic fraud in his recent public dissertation.” (AP)

Doug Mastriano’s Proposed Voter Roll Purge Addresses a Non-Existent Problem and Targets Vulnerable Voters, Experts Say. “If elected governor, Republican Doug Mastriano said he’d reset Pennsylvania’s voter rolls — meaning eligible voters would have to re-register.” (WHYY)

‘Don’t Go Down That Hole’: DelRosso Plays Down Abortion In Race’s Final Days. “Republican gains in next week’s midterm elections may depend in part on whether they can play down the significance of abortion rights. And it’s not just pollsters and pundits who think so, judging from remarks recorded at a meet-and-greet event last weekend in Crawford County that featured GOP lieutenant governor candidate Carrie Lewis DelRosso. ” (WESA)

Where Are They? Here is a quick look at where the candidates are today, based upon their public announcements.

  • Josh Shapiro/Austin Davis: Williamsport, Bloomsburg, Pottsville, Harrisburg
  • Doug Mastriano: W. Brandywine Twp.



3. Thwarted In Primary, PAC Launches a Million-Dollar Campaign To Defeat Lee

“The United Democracy Project, which spent more than $2 million in an unsuccessful bid to beat Congressional candidate Summer Lee in the Democratic primary, has put down another $1 million for TV ads and mailings in the final 10 days before the Nov. 8 election itself.” (WESA)



PA-07: In Final Stretch, Democrats In 7th Reverse Trend, Gain More Voters Than GOP. “Voter registration in the 7th Congressional District grew to 524,021 as of Oct. 31 –  an increase of 14,448 since Aug. 1 in a district where incumbent Democrat Susan Wild and Republican Lisa Scheller are in a dead heat in the polls and every vote counts.” (Armchair Lehigh Valley)

PA-16: Kelly Outraises, Outspends Pastore In Congressional Race. “Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Kelly, who is seeking a seventh term in Congress on Nov. 8, reported more than $1 million in his campaign coffers heading into the last stretch of the election as the resources of his Democratic challenger Dan Pastore dipped below $10,000.” (Erie Times-News)

PA-17: Q and A With Deluzio, Shaffer. “Beaver County voters will play a pivotal role in deciding the winner of Pennsylvania’s hotly contested 17th Congressional District race this year, as Democrat Chris Deluzio and Republican Jeremy Shaffer jockey for the seat now held by U.S. Rep. Conor Lamb.” (Beaver County Times)

Rep. Conor Lamb Makes His Case Against ‘The Two Extremes.’He has no regrets — at least, not about the decision to abandon his House seat for a shot at the Senate. He does rue leaving without helping to reverse what he sees as Congress’ cultural decline.” (Roll Call)


Around The Commonwealth

The Daily Mail Ballot Report. As of November 2, over 1.43 million Pennsylvanians applied for a mail-in ballot – 984,000 Dems, 302,000 Republicans and 149,000 others. Of that total, nearly 964,000 ballots have been returned or 67.4 percent.

PA Elections Likely To Generate a New Round of Lawsuits Over Mail-In Ballots, Retired Judges Say. “The Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s evenly divided result in the latest case seeking clarity on vote-by-mail rules is a set up for “utter chaos” after polls close in the midterm elections next week, retired federal Judge John E. Jones said.” (Pennsylvania Capital-Star)


937 Luzerne County Voters Received Or Will Receive Duplicate Mail-In Ballots; Computer Glitch Blamed.More than 900 Luzerne County voters have received or will receive two ballots in the mail this week because of a data entry error, acting Election Director Beth Gilbert McBride said Wednesday.” (Times-Tribune)

The Pittsburgh Symphony Orchestra Paid $15K To Take Two PA Lawmakers To Europe. “The Republican lawmakers’ European excursion is the type of job perk that a gift ban would make impossible for elected officials and others in government, but the legislature has failed to pass one.” (Spotlight PA)

Kenyatta Johnson Acquitted At Federal Bribery Trial. “A federal jury acquitted Philadelphia City Councilmember Kenyatta Johnson on federal bribery charges Wednesday, rejecting what his lawyers described as an overreaching prosecution that threatened to end his political career.” (Philadelphia Inquirer)

York County Reaches Agreement Over Bilingual Poll Workers, Sample Ballots. “York County agreed to make bilingual sample ballots available at every precinct and provide additional interpreters for the Nov. 8 election, thus lifting — at least for now — the threat of a preliminary injunction by several voting rights groups.” (York Dispatch)

Aliquippa Voters Asked Whether To Create a Home Rule Charter Commission. “A referendum appears on Tuesday’s election ballot for city residents proposing the creation of a group to investigate whether Aliquippa should move to home-rule governance.” (Beaver County Times)



  • Fetterman Or Oz: Whom Do You Choose? Last Chance, Pa. (John Baer)
  • With Democracy On The Line, Voters Must Reject The Threat Posed By Election Deniers On The Ballot. (Philadelphia Inquirer
  • Voters Beware: Double-Check Your Mail-In Ballot Envelope (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)
  • Minimum Wage Is a Poverty Wage. Raise It. (Holly Sklar)
  • Hasn’t This Undated Ballot Court Ruling Happened Before? (Tribune-Review)
  • Targeting Fetterman’s Stroke Is an Ableist Red Herring. (Maggie Riegel)
  • RINO or Realist? Members of Franklin County GOP Should Think Hard About Their Positions. (Bill Gindlesperger)
  • Fetterman’s Desire To Eliminate Cash Bail Would Hurt Pennsylvanians. (Bill McSwain)

2 Responses

  1. Your article about the allegations of academic fraud in Mastriano’s dissertation is serious stuff. Not good.


  • Does the NYC Verdict Make You More or Less Likely to Vote For Trump in 2024?

    • Less Likely (36%)
    • More Likely (34%)
    • Makes No Difference (30%)

    Total Voters: 112

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