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NPR Moves PA From Toss-Up to Leans Dem for Presidential Race

Analysts at NPR believe the presidential race is moving in the Democrats favor in several states, including Pennsylvania. 

According to NPR’s latest Electoral Map ratings published on August 3, Pennsylvania shifts from a Toss-Up into the Lean Democratic category. NPR’s Domenico Montanaro cites former Vice President Joe Biden adding on to his lead over President Donald Trump in the Keystone State in recent months, plus the former VP’s ties to the state. 

“It’s a similar story to Florida in terms of polling,” Montanaro writes. “Biden had a narrow 48% to 45% lead in an average of the polls at the end of February. Now, Biden is ahead 50% to 43%.”

“Being at 50% in so many places is significant,” Montanaro continues. “This also had been a traditionally Democratic state, Biden’s campaign is headquartered there, and he’s been campaigning there in person.” 

“Again, this is one that could move back to toss-up, but for now, it’s leaning toward the Democratic candidate,” Montanaro wrote in conclusion. 

The latest ratings update included a total of six states shifting in the Democrats favor. 

Montanaro points to several factors, including Trump’s grades on the coronavirus pandemic, losing support in the suburbs and more as the reason for the overall national shift. 

“A record and widening majority of Americans disapprove of the job he’s doing when it comes to handling the coronavirus pandemic; he gets poor scores on race relations; he’s seen a suburban erosion despite efforts to win over suburban voters with fear; and all that has led to a worsened outlook for Trump against Democrat Joe Biden in the presidential election,” Montanaro writes. 

If the presidential election were held today, Biden would have the amount of electoral votes needed to defeat Trump according to these ratings. 

Biden has 297 electoral votes at least leaning to him, while Trump has 170, and 71 electoral votes that remain in the Toss-Up category. 

NPR isn’t the lone national outlet to change the rating into the Democrats favor this week alone; CNN changed the rating on Monday from Battleground to Leans Democratic. The Cook Political Report, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Politico, also have moved the race to Leans Democrat since June. 

The Real Clear Politics average shows Biden besting Trump by 6 points in Pennsylvania.

See the latest NPR Electoral Map ratings here.

11 Responses

  1. In 2016, Trump got his razor thin PA victory by carrying rural areas with over 70% of the vote. Now, he will still get big percentages in those areas on November 3rd, but not 72-75%, more like 65-68% this year combined with Biden getting more out of Scranton and those areas around Philly tells me Biden takes PA 53-47%. LIL DONNY FAILURE IS GOING ON THE SCRAPHEAP OF HISTORY.

  2. Trump Scranton victory will carry Bognet to victory. Cartwright will be rolled out of Scranton area on a poop log making Bognet on the winning end.

  3. Biden Scranton connection is too much for a Bognet victory. Cartwright will roll out of Scranton area with superior totals making Bognet on the losing end.

  4. maybe now we can get our disaster of a congressman danny meuser out of office. there may be opportunity since his staff probably can pull him away from his mistresses long enough to deflate his massive ego with voters turning against him. what an embarrassment to our district and his family.

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