Although Joe Sestak still holds a lead over Pat Toomey in the Senate race in Pennsylvania, it is down to just 4.5 percentage points with 78 percent of precincts reporting. The issue is that most of Mr. Sestak’s strongest areas, particularly Philadelphia, where he gained a net of more than 250,000 votes on Mr. Toomey, have reported at a higher rate than the rest of the state. Sestak has performed reasonably well so far, however, in three counties to the north of Philadelphia: Berks, Lehigh, and Montgomery — and they still have a fair amount of their vote outstanding. It is these counties that may determine whether Mr. Sestak holds on to his lead as Mr. Toomey racks up votes in the rural parts of the state.

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