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NYT Analyzes Trump’s Support in PA

trumpThe rise of Donald Trump was the most unexpected political phenomenon of 2015.

Even now we don’t know exactly who his supporters are and where they are most likely located.

Nate Cohn of the New York Times’ Upshot blog sought to answer this question.

Cohn used data from Civis Analytics, a Democratic data firm, to chart Trump’s likely support by congressional district. Civis arrived at their estimates by taking 11,000 interviews with Republican-leaning respondents over the last five months and putting them through their statistical model.

What they found is that Trump’s largest areas of support are in the Deep South, Appalachia and his home state of New York. Western states, which along with the South have been part of the Republican coalition since the 1980 Reagan Revolution, don’t seem enthusiastic about him.

From their map, I’ve compiled below the percentage of likely Trump supporters in each PA congressional district along with that seat’s incumbent and their party. One note: Cohn states that this model applies to Republican general election voters and has a fairly large 8.7% margin of error.

PA-1: 31% (Bob Brady-D)

PA-2: 35% (Chaka Fattah-D)

PA-3: 38% (Mike Kelly-R)

PA-4: 34% (Scott Perry-R)

PA-5: 37% (Glenn Thompson-R)

PA-6: 41% (Ryan Costello-R)

PA-7: 41% (Pat Meehan-R)

PA-8: 36% (Mike Fitzpatrick-R)

PA-9: 33% (Bill Shuster-R)

PA-10: 39% (Tom Marino-R)

PA-11: 39% (Lou Barletta-R)

PA-12: 37% (Keith Rothfus-R)

PA-13: 34% (Brendan Boyle-D)

PA-14: 28% (Mike Doyle-D)

PA-15: 38% (Charlie Dent-R)

PA-16: 40% (Joe Pitts-R)

PA-17: 35% (Matt Cartwright-D)

PA-18: 37% (Tim Murphy-R)

An interesting revelation is that Trump doesn’t run strongest in the western Appalachian part of the state but in the eastern section. Recently, I analyzed how the western half of Pennsylvania is trending Republican while the eastern half is going Democratic.

For instance, his worst district by far is the western seat of PA-14 (the district, however, only contains Pittsburgh, a progressive city in a conservative area). Meanwhile, his best districts are the Southeastern duo of PA-6 and PA-7, seats that are thought to be fairly competitive.

How does Cohn explain this?

He points out that Trump is particularly strong with weak and/or former Democrats.

“Mr. Trump appears to hold his greatest strength among people like these — registered Democrats who identify as Republican leaners — with 43 percent of their support, according to the Civis data,” he writes.

Cohn goes on to point out that this could be a problem for the outspoken New Yorker.

“Mr. Trump’s strength among traditionally Democratic voters could pose some problems for his campaign. Many states bar voters registered with the other party from participating in partisan primaries,” he explained. “Other states go further, not allowing unaffiliated voters to vote in a primary; in the G.O.P. race, for example, that would mean restricting the electorate to those registered as Republicans — one of Mr. Trump’s weakest groups. This group of states includes many favorable to Mr. Trump, like Florida, Pennsylvania and New York.”

Trump’s biggest problem, though, is that the people most likely to support him are the people most likely to stay home on Election Day.

“Another turnout challenge for Mr. Trump is that he commands the support of many people who are unlikely to vote,” Cohn continues. “Civis found him winning 40 percent of the vote among those it gave less than a 20 percent chance of participating in the general election — let alone in the primary. He held 29 percent among those who had greater than an 80 percent chance of voting in the November election.”

Thus the conundrum for Pennsylvania’s Congressmen. What are the costs and benefits of appealing to a group of passionate yet controversial voters, who may ultimately decide not to cast their ballots anyway?

23 Responses

  1. Those who don’t want Trump as our next President obviously wish to remain tied to the ‘whipping post’ for another “4”.

  2. Time will tell. For now – I am still PRAYING that the Repervlican FOXtards are dumb enough to make The Donald their nominee.

  3. How does this help in the Republican primary other than to show that Donald Trump can beat Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania?

    FTA He points out that Trump is particularly strong with weak and/or former Democrats.

  4. Pennsyltuckians are so made they will come out and vote, just like they voted in all the redneck Republicans to the legislature

  5. What an idiotic column. Pollsters who measure the horse race on the GOP side sample registered Republicans only, not Democrats who vote Republican once in a while. So if Rasmussen or Gravis, for example, say Trump is polling at 35 percent in Iowa in the GOP primary, that means Trump is polling at 35 percent among registered Republicans. It’s amazing what qualifies for journalism and political analysis these days.

  6. Oh, so “Dixiecrats” – that makes perfect sense.

    Can’t you hear the (dog) whistle blowing?
    It’s Southern Strategy 2.0!

  7. @Tim
    You sound like a well adjusted and smart person. Not that I’m voting for him but why doesn’t Rubio qualify?

  8. Trumps The Man! Who else are you going to vote for? The old bat ready to have a coronary or a stroke or those 2 cubans who don’t qualify under the Constitution. The choice is very clear. Oh, you can vote for that old old Socialist from Vermont, Hee, Hee!

  9. I am a democrat and have been my entire adult life. If trump is the republican candidate, for president, I will be voting for him. And there is a lot of cross democrat voters who will support him.

  10. If the R’s want him out, just have the Leadership Committee of the party support him. They don’t win elections.

  11. Our fate is in the voter’s hands and I, with many of my friends believed we have judged right and Donald Trump should be our new President? Haven’t we had enough of either political party, who are more interested in their own future, than arising to what the people yearn for?

    Lately, have you not tried to buy a shirt, jeans, or shoes manufactured in America? As Donald Trump stated when confronted by the enormous crowds he attracts; he has seen the massive container ships entering our ports, which is just part of the massive fleets of vessels importing cars, trucks, and auto parts from Japan, China. What do the American people get from these products–certainly cheaper products? The importation of goods under the banner of Free Trade has been some of the worst policies our delegates have negotiated. Yes! From the country of origin, it is (FTAs) FREE TRADE, but for the United States of America, we get zero in tariffs. While on the other side of the coin ‘WE ARE STILL PAYING TARIFFS’ to foreign custom authorities for all our goods.

    Trumps narration covers this extremely important point that we are overwhelmed with cheap goods from across the world, but we fail to consider our own manufacturers. Some years back after leaving services, I entered the world of commercial shipping. While In Kobe, Japan I never saw any American cars making a difference in other foreign countries. Although in Tokyo I recognized British Bentleys, Rolls Royse of the super rich. Any importer will describe our hard it is to introduce products or food stuffs into Japan? Yet, we import so much, because we have the highest concentration of consumers in the world, so we have a powerful advantage over Japan, China, and India, South Korea and a whole index of other nations, including Mexico.

    In our Nation it makes absolute commonsense to lower taxes on businesses, cut down on the red tape and shred the rules and regulations raining down on any company that is trying to build a foundation; its unwelcoming environment of state and federal codes, building laws and the bureaucratic nightmare. Trumps answer is to lower corporate and business taxes, so we have revitalization of small entry level entrepreneurs, franchises and new business.

    This Liberal President has signed onto numerous executive orders that can be thankfully undone, thus creating a thriving and exceptional America first and for its population. However, the two main parties are too timid and without courage other than Senator Ted Cruz who voices a piece of his mind from his seat in Congress.

    The winners every time are the affluent, the powerful and scoreboard of the special interests. The Slims, the George Soros and the Koch brothers will do anything to topple Donald Trump. They are the investors and bankers that own our politicians. As I said, the king of deals has his own power grid of advisors, who can “Make America Great Again” Its that promise that I trust, The multinational companies that are carefully positioned just outside the US border, will play by the rules of Fair Trade or be charged 56 % on anything imported into our land. China will have genuflected to the Trump in the White House, for the prior manipulation of its currency. Those who have entertained moving their businesses to a foreign nation will hesitate and think and unable to buy the ‘Donald’ will return with their tail between their legs.

    As Mr. Trump has said, we need to renegotiate our trade agreements, so we really have free trade, not the one-sided affair we have now? Trump has the best measurement of consultants possible and the means to pay for them. Trump wants businessmen as retired Investor Carl Icahn making the deals and not Civil Servants such as John Kerry, and all his cronies, who probably have their hand in the cookie jar. Mr. Trump has an insider knowledge and ultimate experience of the wheeling and dealing of contracting and government abuse.


  12. Why do you think the massive multinational companies restructure across the Southern border? It’s not just because of cheaper working conditions, but they are relieved of the highest taxes dumped on corporate and industrial complex here. This is why we need Donald Trump as he understands the cogs of businesses and how to grease them. A huge Ford auto plant is reestablishing itself in Mexico, costing over $2 billion plus dollars. There go thousands of more jobs and another plant is closing down. That’s not to forget the dollars spent in our economy in stores, supermarkets and every small business you can think of? Same with the Nabisco company multifaceted entities vanishing just inside the border of Mexico. These types of businesses have been re-established in not just Mexico, but thousands of other places outside our jurisdiction, where they are not governed by US law. Look at Detroit, where the streets are full of empty premises and padlocked factories.

    It’s no different from east coast to the western coastline. The consequences are unrest among the blue collar workers. Every citizen and lawful residence should apprehend that the homelessness, the poverty is all manmade. Why more food stamps; why are our Vets suffering? There should be no need for these military men and women, having to except assistance from charities for any degree of help. It should be available from the US government? Why is Obama spending billions of $$$$$ on foreign nationals, while our seniors and retirees suffer?

    What do we get in return–NOTHING! Cheap products! That’s fine if you are not looking for a job like multimillions of Americans and legal immigrants. This is been going on through former President George Bush and seven years of Obama. The answer food stamps and hundreds of billions of dollars out of the federal and state tills, via the taxpayer that manages to keep any job while this Liberal President welcomes unknown numbers of illegal aliens and supporting them with taxpayer’s funds.

    This is exactly why the Corporate CEO’s and the Democratic wealthy hate the chance that a ‘Peoples President” Donald Trump can discontinue the Status Que. Trump has disowned by the GOP establishment and the thought that this estate developer may just win the White House. Trump being elected instead of two legislatures that are strongly influenced by the money peddlers, supplied to them by billionaires and the rich who want absolutely no changes to any government agency in power.

    Personages as a team member of the GOP Syndicate Jeb Bush, John Kasich, Chris Christie are all tied to the same brush, and must fulfill their obligation to the special interests, the Super PAC’s; the money people and their pledges to supply on the floor of the senate or House what they demand? After all they paid for their loyalty in campaign funds, cheap mortgages, luxury trips, and who knows what else? My guess is bank accounts in the Cayman Islands Jersey of the British Islands or any place off limits to the IRS.

    Remember the brown paper bag incident filled with hundred dollar bills hidden in a House Representative fridge found by the oversight committee. You cannot tell me this is not rampant in Washington? The Quid pro Quo is alive and well, from the White house, State Department and Trump will dislodge them all.

    I really don’t have much to say about the Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton except that the State Department, Department of Justice excluding the heavyweights in the Federal Bureau of Investigation is good at covering up wrongdoings. This Clinton’s cannot escape their past and it will all be resurrected as the race for the Oval office moves forward. In my eyes at least she is a criminal and she will slime her way through, using whatever method is available to her. Trump is already getting a barrage of flak from the lady, but he will eat her up in a debate. I imagine radical Democrats and the Republican elitists are scratching their head, trying to dig up a little piece of dirt on Trump, but they are failing miserably.

    Bernie Sanders doesn’t even deserve any word; he has a Communist acumen of controlling the people, in a different way to the Democrats. But even the GOP Syndicate have there own method to control us. Sanders backers like the something for nothing, free higher education, an open border and without enforcement bringing into the country more uneducated, more carriers of diseases, free health care, free food stamps and welfare programs; much the same as the Democrats and Liberals.


  • Who are you voting for in the PA Supreme Court race?

    • Dan McCaffery (61%)
    • Carolyn Carluccio (37%)
    • Still undecided (2%)

    Total Voters: 344

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