NYT/Siena College Poll: Biden 49, Trump 40
Former Vice President Joe Biden maintains a several point advantage over President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, according to this latest poll.
A New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters in the Keystone State released on Monday evening shows Biden leading Trump by 9 points, 49-to-40. Biden’s lead is steady in comparison to June polling from the NYT/Siena College that showed Biden with a 10 point lead, 50-to-40.
According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Siena College/The New York Times Upshot polling favors Republicans by an average of 0.3% and has an overall A+ grade.
Trump’s job approval rating is under water in this latest poll as well. 44% said they either strongly or somewhat approve of Trump’s handling of the presidency, while 54% said that they either strongly or somewhat disapprove of his job performance.
When likely voters were asked who they would trust on the following issues, Biden has an advantage over Trump on the coronavirus pandemic (55-to-38), maintaining law and order (50-to-44), choosing a Supreme Court Justice (51-to-44), and national security (50-to-45). The lone issue of the five asked in the poll that voters sided with the president was on the economy, with Trump leading Biden (49-to-47).
Although Biden has the advantage over Trump in this poll on several matters, Trump has a slight edge on who likely voters think will win the presidential debate on Tuesday. 41% think that Trump will win the debate, while 39% think Biden will win the debate, and 20% said they don’t know.
65% of likely voters in the state said that they planned to vote in person on Election Day for the November general election, while 27% said they intend to vote-by-mail, and 4% that said they plan to vote in person before Election Day.
Numerous polls released since last week show Biden leading Trump in the state, although this poll shows the biggest advantage for the former VP.
A Trafalgar Group poll of likely voters released last weekend showed Biden leading Trump by just over 2 points, 47.3%-to-44.9%, in the state. A Reuters-Ipsos poll released last Monday showed Biden leading Trump by 3 points, 49-to-46. A Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakers Poll, in partnership with Oakland University and Ohio Northern University, shows Biden leading Trump by just under 3 points, 47.3%-to-44.6%, in the state. A CNBC/Change Research poll of likely Pennsylvania voters released on Wednesday shows Biden with a 4 point advantage, 49-to-45. Polling from the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison conducted by YouGov in collaboration with the Wisconsin State Journal of likely voters in the state also shows Biden with a 4 point lead over Trump, 49-to-45. A Franklin & Marshall College poll released on Thursday morning has Biden leading Trump by 6 points among likely voters, 48-to-42, and 9 points, 49-to-40, among registered voters in the state. Biden held a 7 point lead over Trump, 51-to-44, among likely voters in the state according to a Fox News poll. A poll commissioned by Restoration PAC, a conservative super PAC, commissioned by Trafalgar Group, released a few days ago showed Biden leading by just over 2 points, 48.1%-to-45.9%, with likely voters in the state.
The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 5.3 points in Pennsylvania.
This poll surveyed 711 likely voters, which collected data between September 25-27, has a +/-4.3% margin of error.
The full crosstabs can be found here.