NYT/Siena College Poll: Biden 49, Trump 43

Former Vice President Joe Biden maintains a several point advantage over President Donald Trump in the Keystone State, according to this latest poll. 

A New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters in Pennsylvania released on Saturday shows Biden leading Trump by 6 points, 49%-to-43%. These numbers are a minor improvement for the president in comparison to their polling released on Oct. 5 that showed Biden with a 7 point lead, 49%-to-42%. 

According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Siena College/The New York Times Upshot polling favors Republicans by an average of 0.3% and has an overall A+ grade.

Trump’s job approval and favorability rating made minor improvements, but both remain under water, while a narrow majority of voters have a favorable impression of Biden. 45% said they either strongly or somewhat approve of Trump’s handling of the presidency, while 51% said that they either strongly or somewhat disapprove of his job performance. 51% have either a very favorable or somewhat favorable impression of Biden, while 44% said they have an either very unfavorable or somewhat unfavorable view of him. 

A majority of voters said that they support fracking as well. 52% of likely voters said that they support “the underground oil or natural gas extraction process known as fracking,” while 27% said that they opposed it, and 20% said that they didn’t know or refused to answer. 

This poll surveyed 1,862 likely voters, which collected data between Oct. 26-31, has a +/-2.4% margin of error. 

The full crosstabs can be found here.

A majority of polling conducted in October has consistently shown Biden leading Trump in the state, while this poll shows Biden’s lead is 2 points larger than the Real Clear Politics average. 

A previous New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters released in early-October showed Biden carrying a 7 point lead over Trump, 49-to-42. A CBS poll conducted by YouGov released one day after the NYT/Siena College poll also shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51-to-44, among likely voters. A Monmouth University shows the former VP leading the president by 12 points, 54-to-42, among registered voters in the state. An Emerson College poll of likely voters showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50-to-45, in the state. A Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes poll, in partnership with Oakland University and Ohio Northern University, shows Biden leading Trump by just over 5 points, 49.6%-to-44.5%. 51% of likely voters in the state back Biden in the state, while 46% support Trump, according to The Hill/HarrisX polling. A Rasmussen Reports survey of likely votersshows Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%, in the state. A Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters in the state released on Oct. 21, showed Biden leading Trump by 8 points, 51%-to-43%. A CNN/SSRS poll of likely voters also released on Oct. 21 showed Biden leading Trump by 10 points, 53%-to-43%. A Fox News poll of likely voters in the state showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%. A CNBC/Change Research poll shows Biden leading by just 2 points, 49%-to-47%, among likely voters in the state. A Morning Consult poll of likely voters in the state showed Biden leading Trump by 9 points, 52%-to-43%. A Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll of likely voters released on Oct. 23 showed Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51%-to-44%, in the state. A Gravis marketing poll of likely voters in the state showed Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51%-to-44%, in the state. Polling also released on Monday from the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison conducted by YouGov in collaboration with the Wisconsin State Journal of likely voters in the state showed Biden leading Trump by 8 points, 52%-to-44%. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Monday shows Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%, among likely voters in the state. A Trafalgar Group poll showed Trump leading Biden by less than 1 point, 48.4%-to-47.6%, among likely voters in the state. A Civiqs/DailyKos poll of likely voters shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 52%-to-45%, among likely voters in the state. A Franklin & Marshall College poll released on Oct. 28 showed Biden carrying a 6 point lead over Trump, 50%-to-44%, among likely voters in the state. A third Quinnipiac University poll released this month on Oct. 28 showed Biden leading Trump among likely voters in the state by 7 points, 51%-to-44%. Biden holds a 5 point lead over Trump, 50%-to-45%, among registered voters in the state, according to a Univision/University of Houston poll. A PoliticalIQ poll conducted by Scott Rasmussen showed Biden leading Trump by 6 points, 51%-to-45%, among likely voters in the state. A second The Hill/Harris polling released in late-October showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 51%-to-46%, among likely voters in the state. A second Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll released on Oct. 31 showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 49%-to-44%, in the state. A Washington Post/ABC News poll released on Sunday showed Biden with a 7 point advantage, 51%-to-44%, among likely voters in the state. 

Biden’s largest lead in October public polling comes from the Quinnipiac University poll released on Oct. 7 that showed the former VP leading the president by 13 points, 54-to-41, among likely voters in the state. An AtlasIntel poll of likely voters in the state released on Oct. 31 showed Trump with a 1 point lead over Biden, 49.6%-to-48.5%. 

One other poll from a conservative website showed Trump in the lead, while another GOP friendly poll and two Democratic backed polls released this month showed Biden with an advantage in the state, although the margin varied by the pollster. 

An Insider Advantage phone poll commissioned by the Center for American Greatness, a conservative website, of likely voters in the state released this week shows Trump leading Biden by just under 3 points, 48.4%-to-45.5%. A Trafalgar Group poll commissioned by Restoration PAC, a conservative super PAC founded by Doug Traux, a one time GOP Senate hopeful in Illinois, showed Biden leading Trump by 1 point, 47.5%-to-46.4%, among likely voters in the state. A Public Policy Polling survey commissioned by American Bridge, a Democratic super PAC, showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 51%-to-46%, in the state. A Public Policy Polling survey commissioned by Climate Power 2020 shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 52%-to-45%, in the state.

The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 4 points in Pennsylvania.

November 1st, 2020 | Posted in Front Page Stories, Poll, Presidential, Top Stories | No Comments

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