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NYT/Siena College Poll: Biden 50, Trump 40

Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a double digit lead over President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, according to the latest New York Times/Siena College poll

50% of registered voters said that they would vote for Biden if the election were held today, while 40% said that they would vote for Trump. 

Biden leads among both males and females in this poll and is at least tied or bests Trump in each of the four age categories. Biden leads Trump 54-to-36 among female registered voters polled in Pennsylvania, while he holds a narrow edge of 3 points, 47-to-44, among male registered voters. 

Registered voters between 18-29 years old are Biden’s strongest age group of voters with the former VP leading the current president by 41 points, 66-to-25. Biden’s second strongest age group is with registered voters that are 65 years and older: 55-to-37. Biden also holds a similar double digit lead among voters between 30-44 years old: 53-to-37. Biden and Trump are deadlocked at 48% each among registered voters between 45-64 years old. 

Trump’s job approval rating is also under water in this latest poll. 56% of voters in the state either strongly or somewhat disapprove of Trump’s handling of his job performance, while 41% either strongly or somewhat disapprove. 

Here are some other key takeaways from this latest poll. 

  • Biden leads in five of the six regions that the New York Times included in the polling, including Northeastern PA. Biden’s strongest numbers come in Philadelphia, where he holds a 75-to-15 advantage over Trump. Biden’s next strongest lead is in Allegheny County 63-to-29. Biden also holds double digit leads in the Philadelphia suburbs, 53-to-35, and Northeast PA, 48-to-35. Biden and Trump are neck and neck in the region polled as “Eastern PA” with the former VP leading 44-to-43. Trump holds a 20 point advantage, 59-to-39, in the “rest of PA” category. 
  • 76% of voters polled that are backing Trump said that their vote is more of a vote for Trump, while just 20% polled say their vote for Trump is more of a vote against Biden. The numbers among Biden voters are much different. 54% of Biden voters say that their vote is more of a vote against Trump, while 40% of Biden voters say that their vote is a vote for the former VP. 
  • A majority of voters say that they have an either very or somewhat unfavorable view of Trump, 56-to-42, while half of voters, 50-to-48, say that they have either a very or somewhat favorable of Biden. 
  • 79% of Black voters support Biden in this poll, while just 15% back Trump. This is relatively similar to CBS News exit polling in 2016, when 81% of Black voters in Pennsyvlania voted for Sec. Hillary Clinton and 16% of Black voters in the state voted for Trump. A notable difference is the shift among White voters in the latest New York Times poll. Biden leads Trump 48-to-43 among White voters, which is a significant difference from 2016 when Trump bested Clinton 56-to-40 among White voters. 
  • Biden leads with voters who have completed some college and above, while Trump has the advantage of voters who completed trade school or high school and less. Biden’s biggest margin of the four categories is his lead with voters with a graduate degree, 66-to-27 over Trump, while voters with a bachelors degree back Biden 61-to-30. The margins go within single digits in the last two categories with Biden besting Trump 49-to-44 among voters who completed some college, while Trump leads with voters who completed trade school and high school or less, 47-to-41. This is also a significant shift from 2016 exit polling. According to data pulled from CBS News, Trump bested Clinton by 13 points among voters with a high school degree of less, and also edged out the Democratic nominee by 3 and 4 points respectively with voters with some college/associates degree and college graduates. Clinton’s lone advantage in this voting bloc in 2016 was with voters with postgraduate study, 59-to-37. 
  • When voters were asked their opinions on which candidate would do a better job on eight different issues, Biden held the edge in a majority, although Trump bests the former VP on a few topics. Biden’s strongest numbers come when voters were asked who would be better on race relations, 57-to-36. Biden holds a nearly identical lead 55-to-37 when voters were asked which candidate would do better unifying America. The last category in which Biden holds a double digit advantage over Trump is on healthcare, 52-to-40. Biden also holds a 9 point edge over Trump on handling protests, a 6 point lead over the president on immigration, and a 5 point lead over Trump on who would do better job on the coronavirus. Trump leads Biden by double digits, 55-to-40, on the economy, and leads the former VP by 9 points, 50-to-41, on which candidate would do a better job handling China.
  • 85% of Pennsylvania voters believe that systematic racism in the United States is a very serious or somewhat serious problem. 

This overall poll, surveying 651 Pennsylvania registered voters, collected data between June 8 to June 16, has a margin of error of +/-4.2%. 

The full data can be found here.

9 Responses

  1. Jeez, Republicans losing even more ground. Scott Perry is going to be toast since he tied his reelection to Trump.

  2. The poll is horrible news for Fitzpatrick and great news for Cartwright and DePasquale. Biden may very well have such a landslide that countless marginal House and Senate candidates get swept into office on Biden’s coattails. He could conceivably get 400 electoral college votes. This has all the makings of a once in a century Democratic landslide.

    1. I’ve been around a while. Every four years “has all the makings of a once in a century Democratic landslide.” Get your jollies in now, Ernie.

  3. 85% of Pennsylvania voters believe that systematic racism in the United States is a very serious or somewhat serious problem.

    The other 15% are the systemic racists.

  • Reader Poll: Should President Joe Biden Step Aside?

    • Yes. He should step aside because of his age, declining ability to do the job. (45%)
    • No. He should not step aside. (39%)
    • Yes. He should step aside because he can't beat Donald Trump. (15%)

    Total Voters: 231

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