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NYT/Sienna Poll: Trump, Dem Front Runners in Dead Heat

President Donald Trump’s one point victory over Sec. Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania helped put him over the top in 2016. A new New York Times/Siena College poll shows a close race shaping up between Trump and the three Democratic presidential front runners in the keystone state for 2020. 

Former Vice President Joe Biden polls the best among the top three Democratic presidential hopefuls, besting Trump in a hypothetical head to head matchup by 3 points among registered voters in the state. Sen. Bernie Sanders has a one point advantage over Trump in the hypothetical race among registered voters, while Trump and Warren are tied with registered voters in Pennsylvania. 

When the polling surveyed likely voters in the state, the numbers slightly improved for Trump. Biden still gets the best of Trump in a hypothetical matchup by 1 point among this group. Trump leads Sanders by 1 point among likely voters and leads Warren by 2 points. 

This poll surveying 661 registered voters in Pennsylvania, collected data from Oct. 13 to Oct. 25, has a margin of error of +/-4.4 percent. 

All results between registered and likely voters are within the margin of error. 

A noteworthy difference in the poll is support among African American voters in the state. Biden captures 91%, while Warren earns 78%, and Sanders with 75%. 

Another key takeaway from the polling showed the difference in support between Southeastern Pennsylvania, which has been trending more blue, and Northeast Pennsylvania, which has been trending red. Sec. Hillary Clinton won Philadelphia and the collar counties in 2016 and this new poll shows that support for the Democratic nominee remains strong in the city with 81%, plus the neighboring suburbs with 51% saying they will definitely or probably vote against Trump in 2020. Trump, who successfully flipped Luzerne County and made significant gains in Lackawanna County, continues to poll well with 57% in Northeast PA saying they will definitely or probably vote for Trump. 

This poll paints a much brighter picture for Trump in comparison to previous hypothetical head to head matchups with Democrats in the state. In May, Quinnipiac University released a poll showing Biden leading Trump in the state by 11 points, while Sanders ahead of Trump by 7 points. Various other Democrats were neck and neck with Trump in that poll as well, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren with a 3 point lead over Trump and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg with a 1 point advantage over Trump.

This New York Times/Siena College poll also surveyed voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona and North Carolina, all states that Trump carried in 2016. 

The full story from the New York Times can be found here.

  • Reader Poll: Should President Joe Biden Step Aside?

    • Yes. He should step aside because of his age, declining ability to do the job. (45%)
    • No. He should not step aside. (39%)
    • Yes. He should step aside because he can't beat Donald Trump. (15%)

    Total Voters: 231

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