That’s according to a poll from the New York Times and Siena College, which has the Democrat ahead seven points, 49% to 42%, in a two-way race.
When Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein are included the lead remains seven points, 46% to 39%.
The NYT/Siena poll found large educational and racial gaps in their results. For instance, Trump leads whites 45% to 40% but trails among blacks by a mammoth 90% to 1% margin.
Among whites without a college degree, Trump is actually ahead of Mitt Romney’s pace with a 51% to 34% advantage. The problem for him is that Clinton leads 47% to 38% with whites who do have a college degree.
Furthermore, Trump actually is bringing in working-class whites in the Northeast area around Scranton and Wilkes-Barre. Nate Cohn writes that he has a sixteen-point lead up there. This is a section of the state where Romney won by just four.
Yet just 76% of Republicans are supporting the nominee. That’s a dangerously low number for Trump and suggests that GOP women in the Philly suburbs are abandoning him. She leads by twelve points, 48% to 36%, in those suburbs. Clinton is also likely to get a big margin out of the City of Brotherly Love as it currently stands at 77% to 9%.
One silver lining for Donald Trump, though, is that he leads among those most likely to vote. Respondents who said they are 91-100% likely to vote prefer him 49% to 48%. The complete breakdown is below:
0-10%: Clinton 79 Trump 21
11-20%: Clinton 65 Trump 29
21-30%: Clinton 62 Trump 31
31-40%: Clinton 55 Trump 39
41-50%: Clinton 62 Trump 30
51-60%: Clinton 56 Trump 38
61-70%: Clinton 61 Trump 33
71-80%: Clinton 51 Trump 45
81-90%: Clinton 51 Trump 44
91-100%: Trump 49 Clinton 48
Nonetheless, new voters aren’t coming out for Trump.
Clinton leads by nine among registered voters and by eighteen with voters who didn’t participate in 2012. In fact, the New York Times calculates that she is up sixteen points among newly registered voters and even fares better with whites who didn’t vote in 2012.
The New York Times Upshot/Siena College poll surveyed 824 likely voters in Pennsylvania and was conducted on landline and cellular telephones with live interviews from October 23th to 25th. The margin of error is +/- 3.4%.
The full crosstabs for this poll are presented below: