The big headline out of Obama guru David Plouffe’s Meet the Press interview was his claim that Donald Trump is a “psychopath”.
If you only focused on that, however, you missed a bold prediction Plouffe made about the Keystone State.
The statement came when Plouffe and host Chuck Todd discussed the electoral landscape.
“I think Hillary Clinton is guaranteed at least 269 electoral votes, think about that, because Virginia and Colorado both campaigns I believe are put away,” Plouffe stated.
“Earlier this week you compared it to ‘84, you basically said this race is over we just don’t know the margin,” Todd interjected.
Plouffe responded that there was a 20% that it would be close but that the result would likely be a landslide.
“You look at every state. So in Pennsylvania, Donald Trump has less than zero percent chance of winning Pennsylvania,” Plouffe asserted.
He also noted that Clinton is leading in New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio and Nevada.
Plouffe, the 2008 Obama Campaign Manager and a former Senior Advisor to the President, has long maintained that Pennsylvania is not a swing state.
https://twitter.com/davidplouffe/status/743121567903715328?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
https://twitter.com/davidplouffe/status/745239504143847424?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
https://twitter.com/davidplouffe/status/747871632904044544?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
At the moment, FiveThirtyEight has Clinton with a 6.1% lead in the commonwealth while RealClearPolitics shows a 9.2% advantage for the Democrat (FiveThirtyEight includes Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson while RealClearPolitics does not).
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10 Responses
Hey Misha, might wanna rethink Scranton, Wilkes barre would go for him but not Scranton and immediate area around.
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Misha Bear-
Studying President Santorum? Senator Santorum?
Casey beat Santorum by 10? 12? points.
Clinton will win PA by at least 10 points. She will crush Trump in the Philly metro. Win by ten points in places like the Lehigh Valley and Pittsburgh. And because of her local roots will squeeze out a win in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Only two battleground states are competitive – IA and OH. But Clinton can afford to lose those two states and still crush Trump. It’s OVER.
Nice try, Misha.
Trump is going to get CRUSHED in PA.
There just aren’t enough retards, morons, and bigots to carry the day for him in this great state.
Further, Trump has literally tailor made his campaign to compete in OH and PA and IA. His populism and anti-immigrant tone was crafted after studying Santorum’s career and his pivot to populism light in the 2008 and 2012 primaries. Trump took that message and combined it with socially liberal history and his immigration policies. Trump is going to throw everything he’s got at PA because it’s his only real path to 270. He’s not going to win VA (too black) or CO (too urbane/progressive). He’s got to win PA, OH, IA, NC, and FL to win the election. To say that he has a “less than 0 chance” to carry this state when you look at the primary results and the energy for him in coal country and Scranton and the Pittsburgh areas is absurd. He will get throttled in Philly but that alone isn’t enough to put Hillary over the top.
I don’t see how this statement holds water. Obama only won Pennsylvania by 308,000 votes out of over 5,500,000 votes cast. Hillary Clinton is not nearly the candidate that Obama is and Trump is a far more appealing GOP candidate to PA voters than Romney was.
Hillary may carry Pennsylvania, but I’d be shocked if she wins it by more than Obama won it in 2012.
Anybody who votes for Trump is an idiot.
Plouffe is almost certainly correct: sure, you could spend millions of dollars and run up the score in Pennsylvania so that Dems consistently pump out double-digit leads, but why? Whether it’s half a percent or 20, you still get the same number of Electoral College votes. It’s a zero-sum game and scarce resources are often better allocated elsewhere.