Obama Opens Big Pa. Lead in Quinnipiac, F&M Polls
Two independent polls released Wednesday morning paint a sunny picture for President Obama in Pennsylvania. He leads Republican Mitt Romney 54 percent to 42 percent among likely voters according to Quinnipiac, and 50 percent to 39 percent among registered voters according to Franklin and Marshall.
Romney does slightly better among likely voters in the F&M poll, trailing only by 9 points: 52 percent to 43.
Those numbers virtually unchanged from the most recent Quinnipiac survey on August 1st which showed Obama with an 11 point lead in Pa.
But it’s a jump for Obama according to F&M’s Center for Applied Politics. Their most recent survey, two weeks ago, showed Obama leading by a narrower 44 percent to 38 margin – making today’s a 5 point improvement for the President.
Quinnipiac also polled Florida and Ohio and found similar margins (53 percent to 44 in FL, 53 percent to 43 in OH).
“Gov. Mitt Romney had a bad week in the media and it shows in these key swing states,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “The furor over his 47 percent remark almost certainly is a major factor in the roughly double-digit leads President Barack Obama has in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. The debates may be Romney’s best chance to reverse the trend in his favor.”
Franklin and Marshall has a regional breakdown:
- Southwest: Obama 28, Romney 60
- Central: Obama 38, Romney 49
- Northwest: Obama 54, Romney 37
- Southeast: Obama 54, Romney 36
- Allegheny: Obama 57, Romney 35
- Northeast: Obama 61, Romney 26
- Philadelphia: Obama 75, Romney 16
Some more tidbits from Franklin and Marshall:
- Obama is viewed favorably by 50 percent of respondents to Romney’s 34 percent.
- However, the the President’s job performance rating is more negative (47 percent) than positive (52 percent).
- Obama is more prepared to fix our economic problems, 47 percent to 43 percent.
- Obama wins on foreign policy issues, 56 percent to 33 percent.
- Obama is better able to understand the concerns of ordinary Americans, 59 percent to 32 percent.
- Obama is better able to handle the job as military chief, 53 percent to 38 percent.
- Obama is closest to voters’ views on abortion and gay marriage, 48 percent to 39 percent.
Other tidbits from Quinnipiac:
- Obama’s job approval rating is positive, 51 percent to 45 percent.
- His favorability is also positive, 54 percent to 43 percent.
- Romney’s favorability is 50 percent negative to to 41 positive.
- 86 percent of likely PA voters say they plan on watching the debate
- Pennsylvania women back Obama 58 percent to 37.
- Men back Romney by one point, 49 percent to 48 percent.
- The economy is the most important issue for 48 percent of Pennsylvania voters, while 20 percent list health care; 11 percent list the budget deficit and 7 percent list national security.
- The president would do a better job on health care, voters say 54 to 41 percent and do a better job on Medicare, voters say 55 to 39 percent. Voters over 55 say Obama would do a better job on Medicare 52 to 43 percent and back the president 50 – 46 percent.
- Romney would do a better job on the budget deficit, voters say 48 to 45.
- A total of 57 percent of Pennsylvania voters are “very confident” or “somewhat confident” in Obama’s ability to make the right decisions about events in the Middle East, compared to 44 percent for Romney.
- Obama cares about their needs and problems, voters say 60 to 37 percent, while Romney doesn’t care, voters say 57 to 38 percent.
- If re-elected, Obama policies would treat everyone the same, 29 percent of voters say, while 30 percent say he would favor the middle class; 26 percent say he would favor the poor and 9 percent say he would favor the rich.
- Romney policies would favor the rich, 59 percent of voters say; 29 percent say he would treat all the same, while 9 percent say he would favor the middle class and less than 1 percent say he would favor the poor.
Quinnipiac surveyed 1,180 likely Pa. voters via land lines and cell phones from Sept. 18 to 24. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.9 percent. The poll was produced in conjunction with CBS and the New York Times.
Franklin and Marshall polled 632 Pennsylvania voters, including 392 likely voters, from September 18 to 23. The margin of error for registred voters is plus or minus 3.9 percent; the margin of error for likely voters is plus or minus 4.9 percent. The poll sample includes 50 percent Democrats, 37 percent Republicans and 11 percent independents. The poll was produced in conjunction with the Philadelphia Daily News, WGAL-TV (South Central PA), Pittsburgh Tribune Review, WTAE-TV (Pittsburgh), WPVI-TV6/ABC (Philadelphia), Times-Shamrock Newspapers, Harrisburg Patriot-News, and Lancaster Newspapers.