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Obama Opens Big Pa. Lead in Quinnipiac, F&M Polls

Hopes by Republicans (and political press, eager for an exciting race) took a hit today along with the odds that Pa. will regain its battleground status this year.

Two independent polls released Wednesday morning paint a sunny picture for President Obama in Pennsylvania. He leads Republican Mitt Romney 54 percent to 42 percent among likely voters according to Quinnipiac, and 50 percent to 39 percent among registered voters according to Franklin and Marshall.

Romney does slightly better among likely voters in the F&M poll, trailing only by 9 points: 52 percent to 43.

Those numbers virtually unchanged from the most recent Quinnipiac survey on August 1st which showed Obama with an 11 point lead in Pa.

But it’s a jump for Obama according to F&M’s Center for Applied Politics. Their most recent survey, two weeks ago, showed Obama leading by a narrower 44 percent to 38 margin – making today’s a 5 point improvement for the President.

Quinnipiac also polled Florida and Ohio and found similar margins (53 percent to 44 in FL, 53 percent to 43 in OH).

“Gov. Mitt Romney had a bad week in the media and it shows in these key swing states,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “The furor over his 47 percent remark almost certainly is a major factor in the roughly double-digit leads President Barack Obama has in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. The debates may be Romney’s best chance to reverse the trend in his favor.”

Franklin and Marshall has a regional breakdown:

  • Southwest: Obama 28, Romney 60
  • Central: Obama 38, Romney 49
  • Northwest: Obama 54, Romney 37
  • Southeast: Obama 54, Romney 36
  • Allegheny: Obama 57, Romney 35
  • Northeast: Obama 61, Romney 26
  • Philadelphia: Obama 75, Romney 16

Some more tidbits from Franklin and Marshall:

  • Obama is viewed favorably by 50 percent of respondents to Romney’s 34 percent.
  • However, the the President’s job performance rating is more negative (47 percent) than positive (52 percent).
  • Obama is more prepared to fix our economic problems, 47 percent to 43 percent.
  • Obama wins on foreign policy issues, 56 percent to 33 percent.
  • Obama is better able to understand the concerns of ordinary Americans, 59 percent to 32 percent.
  • Obama is better able to handle the job as military chief, 53 percent to 38 percent.
  • Obama is closest to voters’ views on abortion and gay marriage, 48 percent to 39 percent.

Other tidbits from Quinnipiac:

  • Obama’s job approval rating is positive, 51 percent to 45 percent.
  • His favorability is also positive, 54 percent to 43 percent.
  • Romney’s favorability is 50 percent negative to to 41 positive.
  • 86 percent of likely PA voters say they plan on watching the debate
  • Pennsylvania women back Obama 58 percent to 37.
  • Men back Romney by one point, 49 percent to 48 percent.
  • The economy is the most important issue for 48 percent of Pennsylvania voters, while 20 percent list health care; 11 percent list the budget deficit and 7 percent list national security.
  • The president would do a better job on health care, voters say 54 to 41 percent and do a better job on Medicare, voters say 55 to 39 percent. Voters over 55 say Obama would do a better job on Medicare 52 to 43 percent and back the president 50 – 46 percent.
  • Romney would do a better job on the budget deficit, voters say 48 to 45.
  • A total of 57 percent of Pennsylvania voters are “very confident” or “somewhat confident” in Obama’s ability to make the right decisions about events in the Middle East, compared to 44 percent for Romney.
  • Obama cares about their needs and problems, voters say 60 to 37 percent, while Romney doesn’t care, voters say 57 to 38 percent.
  • If re-elected, Obama policies would treat everyone the same, 29 percent of voters say, while 30 percent say he would favor the middle class; 26 percent say he would favor the poor and 9 percent say he would favor the rich.
  • Romney policies would favor the rich, 59 percent of voters say; 29 percent say he would treat all the same, while 9 percent say he would favor the middle class and less than 1 percent say he would favor the poor.

Quinnipiac surveyed 1,180 likely Pa. voters via land lines and cell phones from Sept. 18 to 24. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.9 percent. The poll was produced in conjunction with CBS and the New York Times.

Franklin and Marshall polled 632 Pennsylvania voters, including 392 likely voters, from September 18 to 23. The margin of error for registred voters is plus or minus 3.9 percent; the margin of error for likely voters is plus or minus 4.9 percent. The poll sample includes 50 percent Democrats, 37 percent Republicans and 11 percent independents. The poll was produced in conjunction with the Philadelphia Daily News, WGAL-TV (South Central PA), Pittsburgh Tribune Review, WTAE-TV (Pittsburgh), WPVI-TV6/ABC (Philadelphia), Times-Shamrock Newspapers, Harrisburg Patriot-News, and Lancaster Newspapers.

12 Responses

  1. Kathleen3 is right! Wait a minute, kathleen3…R2D2is that you? CP3O? You geeks have the wrong room. You don’t really like Romney do you? Tell the truth who would you have preferred be your nominee (other than princess Leah of course)

  2. Only those who read fiction and watch reality shows accept poll numbers from Qunnipiac, F&M, WaPo, NBC, and others of their ilk. The above are nothing more than an arm of the DNC that have long ago been exposed and discredited.

  3. Thank you for your apology. This is more like what respectful discourse sounds like.
    I question how facts can be partisan, though. The President was still talking about the video even in front of the UN when everyone knows its not about a video.
    Frankly, if anyone learned history anymore, they would know that this did not just originate with Bush, or Clinton, or even Carter. This is a hundreds of years old threat, I do not blame the man for the threat, but note that he is unwilling or unable to respond properly to it. He may want this country brought down to Indonesian size, but that is not what is good for the world.
    Who brought this country, and the world, peace, Carter or Reagan? Nonpartisan answer: Reagan.
    There will not be any group of kindly nations looking after the world if not for us. Next in line? China and Russia with Arab wealth following closely behind. I don’t care to see it, Obama seems convinced that leveling the playing field applies to this piece of the puzzle.
    That’s not gonna work.

  4. So you just simply dismiss any and all polls that contain information that you don’t like. But if this poll said the opposite then right now you’d be beating your chest and talking all sorts of trash. What a joke, this is the reason why arguing with a conservative is pointless because you people live in a bubble that is based upon a false reality. Its going to be funny to see you crying and complaining on November 10th after President Obama gets re-elected. 4 MORE YEARS!

  5. Another joke. based on 2008 turnout models. Obama doesn’t have same wind at his back and won’t. Romney does and will. more media trying to demoralize. its a joke

  6. Well then I agree with you on what you just said about Bush. But don’t you also think that the reason why Al-Queda was able to execute a successful attack in NY and DC is due to failures on the part of the Bush Administration? So given that in addition to Bush lying about Iraq in order to start a war then its safe to say that President Bush was a total failure on foreign policy. And now you have a Republican Presidential candidate who has basically said that he’ll take the same reckless approach to foreign policy as Bush and that he’d go as far as to bring back his old cronies such as former UN Ambassador John Bolton (who by the way was an utter disaster). Now I understand that you may not agree with everything that President Obama has done and some of your criticisms may be warranted but he’s definitely better than on that front than President Bush just sheerly on that fact that there have been no terrorist attacks under his watch and the fact that he’s ended wars rather than lie to start them. And if that’s the case then by default President Obama is the stronger candidate on foreign policy over Mitt Romney who said that he’d adopt the Bush doctrine which we all know is a failure.

    Now as far as the attacks on the embassies are concerned, there is a minimal US security detail at all of our embassies across the globe but not enough to take on an angry mob; the host country is the one responsible for ensuring security at embassy. For example if there was an attack on the Japanese Embassy in Washington DC then it would be the responsibility of the US government to prevent and thwart the attack. So to blame President Obama because an embassy was attacked is just flat out wrong. Besides its not like the US embassies were the only target of these lunatics over in these Middle East countries, British Embassies along with the embassies of other Western nations were attacked as well. So the failure is on the host country who didn’t provide the needed security to combat these mobs. Any reasonable person would tell you that those who blame President Obama for the acts of an angry mob on foreign soil is just politicizing this tragedy.

    I apologize for calling you an idiot but lets just take off the partisan shades for a minute and lets stand together as Americans because its not anbody’s fault in this country that these people in Middle East acted the way they did and killed people over a movie that was disgusting and inflammatory. Furthermore, the American President is not responsible for the behavior of these people who acted like savages; place the blame on them and the host country that failed to provide an adequate amount of security. If you don’t like the President then you’ll have the chance to make your feelings known on Nov.9 but in regards to this situation then you should be standing with him as the leader of our country. Let’s try to exhibit some patriotic spirit for a change.

  7. I do have some criticism for Bush. When he found out that he was lied to about weapons of mass destruction in order to press an attack on Iraq heads should have rolled.
    Someone who is willing to lie to you about these dangerous things, will lie to you about everything.
    And I take issue with your blatantly untrue statement that his foreign policy is a success. Attacks of embassies in three foreign countries and demonstrations against the US in a dozen more is not what successful looks like. And did you miss the signs were they reassured us that they are all Bin laden?
    Oh, and when Obama releases 50 more of their operatives as is already been announced by the State Department, and all of them can help plan more of these attacks, it will not be me who looks stupid for questioning just which team he is playing for.

  8. Wow, Mary you a really dumb.

    I wonder what you have to say about Bush considering the fact that we were attacked under his watch. Let’s do a scoreboard that totals the number of terrorist attacks on American soil under the two Presidents:

    Obama – 0
    Bush – 1

    Lets do another scoreboard that tallies the status of Bin Laden during these two Presidencies:

    Obama: Bin Laden DEAD
    Bush: Bin Laden ALIVE

    Then if you make reference to the total amount of Al-Queda terrorists killed under the watch of these two Presidents then Obama would win by a blow-out margin.

    Since your so critical of President Obama, even though he has been so much more effective on foreign policy and keeping American safe than Bush who under his watch the country was attacked. Then you must have even stronger criticisms for Bush.

    GOP = Tough Talkers = Weak on National Defense and Foreign Policy.

  9. Is Obama deliberately deluding the American public regarding Islamic terror?
    Note, while we in grade school were learning our US branches of government, what was he learning in Indonesia? Four Cases of Administration Untruths
    Summary? Every time there is a shooting of national prominence which involves connections to AlQueda, the President denies it.
    Note: someone’s who lies, does not only lie to other people. He is clearly lying to almost all of us.
    Buying into the “War on Women”? Research how women are treated in Muslim countries. Does it look good to you?
    No to Obama and the weakening of our country for foreign national interests.


    ” Well, there are 47% of the people who will vote for the president no matter what. All right? There are 47% who are with him. Who are dependent upon government, who believe that– that they are victims, who believe that government has a responsibility to care for them, who believe that they’re entitled to healthcare, to food, to housing, to you name it. But that’s– it’s an entitlement. And the government should give it to them. And they will vote for this president no matter what. ”

    ” And– and so MY JOB IS NOT TO WORRY ABOUT THOSE PEOPLE !. I’ll never convince them that they should take personal responsibility and care for for their lives. What I have to do is convince the 5% to 10% in the center that are independents, that are thoughtful, that look at voting one way or the other depending upon in some cases emotion. Whether they like the guy or not. ”


    Any Questions ?

  • Understanding that basic education funding should/will be first, what should be the next highest priority for the General Assembly?

    • Raising The Minimum Wage (25%)
    • Legalizing Adult-Use Marijuana (24%)
    • None of the above. Something Else. (20%)
    • Economic Development (14%)
    • Higher Education (8%)
    • Public Transportation (8%)
    • Workforce Opportunities and Innovation (2%)

    Total Voters: 51

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