Oz, Fetterman, Mastriano Lead Emerson Poll

A new Emerson (Mass.) College Polling/The Hill Poll released today shows a statistical dead-heat between Mehmet Oz and David McCormick in the race for the Republican nomination for the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate seat vacated by the retiring Pat Toomey.

Doug Mastriano holds an advantage in the chase for the GOP governor’s nomination, while John Fetterman holds a commanding lead for the Democratic U.S. Senate nomination.

In the much-publicized GOP Senate contest, Oz edged McCormick by the slightest of margins, 14.4 percent to 14.3 percent. Kathy Barnette was third at 6.4 percent, followed by Carla Sands (5.7) and Jeff Bartos (5.3). George Bochetto (2.3) and Sean Gale (1.1) failed to reach three percent.

More importantly, over half (50.5 percent) of the 372 Republicans surveyed indicated that they were undecided.

On the Democratic side, Fetterman ran away with nearly one-third (33.4 percent) of the 471 responses, while Lamb secured just 10.0 percent. Kevin Baumlin (9.0), who withdrew from the race earlier today, Malcolm Kenyatta (7.6) and Alex Khalil (2.8) were under 10 percent. It was just over a week ago that POLITICO reported the release of an internal memo showing that Lamb trailed by 30 points.

Once again, over one-third of the respondents said that they were undecided on a candidate to support.

In the GOP chase for the governor’s mansion, Mastriano (16.2) and Lou Barletta (12.4) broke into double digits, fueling the fears of party elders that such a large field may lead to a fractured vote in May. Bill McSwain was third at 6.4 percent, followed by David White (5.7) and Joe Gale (3.3). Melissa Hart (2.5), Jake Corman (2.3), Charlie Gerow (2.2) and Nche Zama (0.4) trailed.

The big winner was “undecided,” polling at 48.7 percent of the 372 responses.

President Biden’s job approval was at 47 percent among Pennsylvanians in the Emerson Poll, while a national poll conducted by Marist College that was also released Thursday found Biden at 39 percent.

The poll also asked Pennsylvanians if they believe that the Commonwealth runs fair elections. Seventy-five percent of Democrats said yes, while only 42 percent of independents and 28 percent of Republicans agreed.

Elsewhere, 61 percent of the 372 GOP respondents said that a Donald Trump endorsement would make them more likely to vote for that candidate. Seventy-four percent felt that the amount of time a candidate has lived in the Commonwealth is very or somewhat important in their decision on how to vote.

Forty-six percent of those polled stated that the Biden Administration was to blame for the increase in gas prices, while nearly 19 percent directed their venom at gas and oil companies.

The Emerson College/The Hill Pennsylvania poll was conducted March 26-28, 2022. The general election sample consisted of registered voters in Pennsylvania, n=1,069 with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points.

21 Responses

  1. I would love to hear how Mastriano reconciles how “live as you see fit and not how I tell you to” slogan with the GOPs oppression of LGBTQ+, anti gender affirming care, anti-choice platforms. The hypocricy is astounding.

  2. Doug M isn’t the truth. He voted for Act 77, lied about having Trumps endorsement when he clearly doesn’t, and he wanted to suspend HIPAA privacy protections for patients. He’s a terrible candidate. If he’s the nominee, Shapiro wins by 15 points.

        1. Charlie Turnpike Gerow and Russ DUI Diamond should team up as a ticket. They’d be the dream team.

          1. Mastriano is a phony. He voted for Act 77 and allowed random vote by mail with no ballot security. What a joke that conservatives could support him!!

  3. The Colonel and Teddy are gonna win by double digits. It’s not fair. I thought my video would sink them.

    1. If Fetterman wins the Democratic primary the loser will be all of us. The Republicans are salivating for a Fetterman win. Fetterman CANNOT win the General Election. Remember Sestak…..

      1. Completely wrong and a talking point from a sad campaign that can’t break 10%. A Generic Dem is a guaranteed loss in this cycle. I don’t know if Fettermsn can win, but he’s the only chance the Ds have at this point.

        1. My independent neighbors and even many democrats aren’t clamoring for Fetterman where I live. He wins, dems lose bigly in the general. Legalizing weed isn’t their top priority.

        2. I like to win elections. Always remember that the the candidate themselves are first and foremost the face of the campaign. Fetterman can’t win a statewide general election.

  4. A lot of Trumpers wil not tell pollsters so undecided may not be as high as they seem. For sure the two Trumpers for Gov are the ones who have a serious chance for nomination.

  5. Other than the Democratic race for Governor, the election remains unsettled with 47 days to the primary. Over half (50.5 percent) of the Republicans surveyed in the race for Senate indicated that they were undecided. Over one-third of the respondents surveyed in the Democratic Senate race said that they were undecided on a candidate to support. The big winner in the Republican Governor race was “undecided,” polling at 48.7 percent.

    1. Sickening false posts by false poster who PoliticsPA permits to post lies here.

      1. Sickening accusations from the fake name poster that PoliticsPA permits to post lies here. Everyone knows I love Oz and Doug M

      2. This despicable fake poster imposter with the libtard lies. Everyone knows I stand for MAGA every single day

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