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PA-01: Internal Survey Shows Ehasz Closing On Fitzpatrick

Brian Fitzpatrick | Ashley Ehasz

New polling from progressive research firm Upswing Research & Strategy shows the race in Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District is getting tighter.

The survey of 400 likely general election voters provides a two percentage-point advantage for incumbent Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick over his Democratic challenger Ashley Ehasz, 47-45%. An additional eight percent indicated they were undecided about who to favor in the Bucks County contest.

The poll was conducted between June 12-16 and has a 4.9% margin of error.

“From conversations our team has had with voters and from this poll data, we know that our district unites around the belief that people’s welfare comes first, and Brian Fitzpatrick’s shameful votes to ban abortion and deny lifesaving healthcare to women are in stark contrast to that belief,” Ehasz campaign manager Rachel Berlowe Binder said in a statement.

Her campaign has focused on reproductive rights, noting Fitzpatrick’s votes against the Women’s Health Protection Act, as well as his support of House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.).

“Active-duty soldiers cannot choose the state that they are stationed – so they can be stationed in a state that bans abortion,” Ehasz said about how the Dobbs decision has affected the armed force. “My first duty station was in Alabama, my second duty station was in Texas … I would have no longer had access to abortion in many cases if I were still in today.”

Fitzpatrick has won reelection three times in the swing district. He defeated Ehasz, a former Army apache helicopter pilot, by 10 points. President Joe Biden captured PA-01 as well in 2020, downing former President Donald Trump by 4.7 points.

Ehasz had a plus-8 favorability rating (18-10) among those surveyed, but may have a name recognition issue as nearly 3-in-4 respondents did not have an opinion. On the flip side, Fitzpatrick was a plus-4 (41-37) with about 1-in-4 offering no opinion.

Fitzpatrick is holding a huge cash advantage over his challenger, as he reported $3.65 million cash on hand after the first quarter of 2024. His campaign will also receive a boost from the leadership PAC of Sen. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.), who will be donating to Fitzpatrick’s campaign as well as other centrist lawmakers.

Ehasz raised approximately $820,000 during the period.

According to data from the Pennsylvania Department of State, there are just shy of 560,000 voters in the 1st Congressional District, which includes part of Montgomery County, with Republicans holding a slender 750-voter edge in registration.

2 Responses

  1. The GOP actually captured the registration edge in the Congressional district in late May, but there was no press coverage. As of this Monday the Democratic registration edge in Bucks County is just 720 voters and shrinking.

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