The latest poll shows what we thought all along.
The race for the 7th Congressional District seat in the U.S. House of Representatives will come right down to the wire.
Democrat Susan Wild holds a 1-point edge over Republican Lisa Scheller, 47-46, in the latest Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Midterm Election Survey of 404 likely voters. The margin of error in a small sample such as this is 6.0 points, so the race is essentially a statistical dead heat.
Wild, the incumbent, held a 47-45 advantage over Scheller, her 2020 opponent, when respondents were asked who they were going to vote for. Scheller, CEO of Silberline Manufacturing Co., closed the gap by a single point when those who indicated they were leaning towards her were counted.
Those surveyed were also asked to rate Wild’s job performance and the two-term Democrat had a plus-1 rating with 42 percent approving, while 41 percent disapproved.
There is a significant gender divide in the 7th District, as men preferred Scheller by a resounding 55-37 margin with women preferring Wild by an even larger 58-37 count.
Among those who have attained a bachelor’s degree, Wild leads by 16 points (54-38), while Scheller tops those who do not have a college degree by 13 points (54-41).
The survey showed that the two most important issues to Lehigh Valley voters were inflation (34%) and abortion (28%). Respondents were split on who they favored on each issue. Those who identified inflation as their top concern favored Scheller, 76-18, while those who stated reproductive rights was at the top of their list named Wild, 87-11. Sixty-five percent of those surveyed said that abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while five percent said it should be illegal in all cases. Approximately 3 in 5 of those surveyed were over the age of 50.
Lehigh Valley respondents gave President Joe Biden a minus-nine approval mark with 45% approving and 54% disapproving of his performance in office.