PA-3: Mercyhurst Poll: Kelly 52 Lavallee 30; Wolf 48 Corbett 41

mike-kelly1Republican Mike Kelly, the incumbent in Pennsylvania’s 3rd Congressional District, holds a significant advantage over his newcomer competitor, Democrat Dan Lavallee.

The Mercyhurst Center for Applied Politics found that if the election were held today, 52% of likely voters would support Kelly, while 30% would support Lavallee. 12% of respondents remain undecided, with 7% answering “don’t know”.

The biggest hurdle for Lavallee to overcome is name recognition. A whopping 73% of respondents did not recognize his name, as compared to the 15% who did not recognize Kelly.

Governor’s Race

The poll also asked respondents in the district about the gubernatorial election.

Among likely voters, 48% of respondents would vote for Wolf if the election were held today, and 41% of respondents would vote for Corbett – a seven point advantage for Wolf. Again, 8% of respondents remain undecided.

According to Cook Political Report, Pennsylvania’s 3rd Congressional District is R+8, meaning Republicans have the advantage in the district. Therefore, Wolf’s lead is a positive sign for the Democratic candidate.

The Mercyhurst Poll was conducted from October 15-21, 2014 and included 503 individuals in the 3rd District. The margin of error is +/- 4.37%.

4 Responses

  1. It’s worth noting that this poll was done before LaVallee went on the air. So the margin in the Congressional will probably be smaller.

  2. If Wolf is winning by 7 in an R+8 district, he’s going to win by 15-20 points statewide.

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