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PA-6: Costello Leads Internal Poll

CostelloRepublican nominee and Chester County Board of Commissioners Chairman Ryan Costello is leading his Democratic opponent physician Manan Trivedi by 13% in a new internal poll.

The findings claim that Costello held about 49 percent of the 300 registered voters polled, while Trivedi received only 36 percent. Sixteen percent of the participants remain undecided.

PA-6 is a circuitous district which includes parts of Montgomery, Chester, Berks and Lebanon County. Its been considered a particularly competitive seat in the upcoming House races due to long-time Republican Rep. Jim Gerlach’s retirement. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) recently invested a large amount of its Congressional ad money in the race.

The same poll found that 54% of likely voters disapprove of President Obama’s performance and that 53% disapprove of the Affordable Care Act.

This survey was conducted by the Tarrance Group, a well-known Republican strategic firm, on behalf of the Costello campaign. Therefore, these results should be taken with a grain of salt as internal polls are generally less reliable than independent surveys.

The poll was taken from May 5th to 7th. The margin of error is plus or minus 5.8 percent.

12 Responses

  1. @Observer,
    I am a Trivedi supporter (not in the district anymore though), and I’ve had multiple Trivedi supporters tell me that he lost big in 2010 but “barely” lost in 2012, meaning 2014 would be a winning cycle for him.

    Nevermind the newspapers, look at the Dept of State election site: 57.1 to 42.9% is not “barely” losing. He lost by around 48,000 votes.

    Unfortunately, I don’t believe this is a swing district anymore, not as long as far left Dems are running. If we want to take back the House, we need at least 30-40 moderate/blue dogs across the country running in these kinds of districts.

  2. If Trividi can run an innovative broad based campaign – he can defeat a political hack like Costello. Do we really want a political hack who will back Boehner on all issues.
    Trividi served served his country- Costello serves the chester county republicans?

  3. Which idiot said that Trivedi lost by 14 last time? Another Karl Rove acolyte? Go look it up, moron. Who’d Costello use – Rasmussen, who always gets it wrong to the tune of 8 to ten percent? And Chuck Todd????? Who SWORE that Romney would make it close?? LOLOLOL…. ROFLMAO! There is a REASON nobody in politics would hire Todd – he’s like Rove, except wrong even more often! Any poll that shows disapproval of the ACA is a push poll, since REAL polls show that it is MASSIVELY welcomed, by 20 to 25 percent, in every part of the country. That’s why we have BENGHAZI 24/7 – their plan to win via Obamacare bashing is a loser. As is boy wonder (who never served his country) Costello. This whole article reads like a press release from a desperate campaign who sees which way the wind is blowing.

  4. So why hasn’t Trivedi, who conducted a poll to push his primary opponent out of the race, released his head to head numbers? Costello is trouncing him in fundraising, has a poll showing Costello up 13 percent in a district Trivedi has run in twice, Costello was just named by Washington Post as one of its 40 under 40 and Costello was named today a one of two GOP Rising Stars in PA by Chuck Todd on MSNBC. Trivedi is getting his ass kicked a dozen different way to Monday. If he had a poll showing him within single digits he would have released it by now.

  5. That’s pretty weak for an internal poll.

    He must be scared to lead with such a hollow move.

    Trivedi must be in better shape than I thought.

  6. Trivedi lost his second unsuccessful PA 6 run by 14% in 2012. This new poll showing him down 13% in his third attempt sounds about right regardless of partisan polling firm.

  7. You note at the very end that this is an unreliable poll because it was conducted by a partisan pollster. It has an extremely small sample of 300 and a margin of error of error of almost 6%. So that 13% lead might be as small as 1%. So my question is this: Why even report it?

  8. In other words:

    Report I paid for that I am not releasing except for out-of-context toplines reports good news for me.

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