PA Goes From “Lean D” to “Toss-Up” in 2016 Presidential Race

Cook-August2015Pennsylvania is, for the moment, a toss-up state.

The Cook Political Report, one of the most respected political prognosticators in the country, released their latest electoral college rankings for the 2016 presidential election today.

In their last “2016 Electoral Scorecard” from April, Pennsylvania was categorized as a “Lean Democratic” state. Four months later, however, PA is now classified as a “Toss-Up”.

PA was one of three states that shifted rankings, all towards the Republican side. Wisconsin also made the jump from “Lean D” to “Toss-Up” while North Carolina went from “Toss-Up” to “Lean Republican”.

2016 Landscape

In August 2015, Cook has nine states and 115 electoral votes, in the “Toss-Up” column: Colorado (9 electoral votes); Florida (29); Iowa (6); Nevada (6); New Hampshire (4); Ohio (18); Pennsylvania (20); Virginia (13); and Wisconsin (10).

President Obama won all nine of these states in both 2008 and 2012.  

Fifteen states, worth 186 EVs, are classified as “Solid Democratic”: California (55); Connecticut (7); Delaware (3); D.C. (3); Hawaii (4); Illinois (20); Maine (4); Maryland (10); Massachusetts (11); New Jersey (14); New York (29); Oregon (7); Rhode Island (4); Vermont (3); and Washington (12).

Also, three states and 31 EVs are categorized as “Likely Democratic”: Michigan (16); Minnesota (10); and New Mexico (5).

On the other hand, 21 states and 164 electoral votes are “Solid Republican”: Alabama (9); Alaska (3); Arkansas (6); Idaho (4); Indiana (11); Kansas (6); Kentucky (8); Louisiana (8); Mississippi (6); Missouri (10); Montana (3); Nebraska (5); North Dakota (3); Oklahoma (7); South Carolina (9); South Dakota (3); Tennessee (11); Texas (38); Utah (6); West Virginia (5); and Wyoming (3).

Two states, total 27 EVs, are “Likely Republican”: Georgia (16) and Arizona (11).

Just North Carolina and its 15 electoral votes are categorized as “Lean Republican”.

Altogether, the Democrats have 217 electoral votes, the GOP 206 electoral votes with 115 in the “toss-up” category. It takes 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.  

13 Responses

  1. David, southwest PA started shifting Republican before Obama. It was most noticeable in 2000

  2. I’m not old but I am white and you libtards need to quit smelling each others asses…. Trump 2016

  3. PA Conservative

    Blacks and women are allowed to vote. It’s not fraud. A lot has changed in the past two centuries.

  4. jjcnpa-

    It’s less white and old as it was last time with the old white conservatives dying off.

    southwestern PA shifted because they were afraid of a black president coming after their guns while they were also clinging to their religion.

  5. PA is older and whiter than the national average so it definitely is in play as that demographic becomes more and more Republican. If you look at Presidential election results from 1992 to 2012 southwestern PA has shifted dramatically to the Republicans, the huge GOP advantage in South Central PA remains but it has decreased slightly and the Philly suburbs continue to become more Democratic.

    By 2024 the national electoral map will look quite a bit different as western PA to Wisconsin becomes more Republican and states like Virginia and North Carolina become Democratic and Georgia, Texas and Arizona become toss ups. The electoral map did almost a 180 shift from 1976 to 2000.

  6. I have been saying this for two months. Toomey will win the senate race hands down and the only remaining question is whether or not Hillary Clinton can hold PA in 2016. Wolf has completely screwed the democratic party in PA. And having multiple statewide dem politicians indicted for corruption doesn’t help either. You need to get out of Philly and take a look at the rest of the state.

  7. Gleason and his stooges at the GOP headquarters will lose PA once again. In their defense, the state is no longer competitive. Toomey is toast. He hardly won PA in the banner tea party year. Different electorate in presidential election spells disaster.

  8. This is laughable. Look at demographics and voter registrations. If anything, PA is becoming deeper and deeper blue. But you know, that’s just numbers. If Scranton favorite-daughter Hillary is running, PA will be a 15 point victory, with no money spent. Sounds like Cook is Cook-ing the books.

  9. Excuse me. John Kerry and Al Gore won ‘some’ of them I guess would be the better way to phrase that.

    Kerry won Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire in 2004.
    Gore won Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, and arguably Florida in 2000.

  10. I generally trust Cook Report, but this really does say everything:

    In August 2015, Cook has nine states and 115 electoral votes, in the “Toss-Up” column: Colorado (9 electoral votes); Florida (29); Iowa (6); Nevada (6); New Hampshire (4); Ohio (18); Pennsylvania (20); Virginia (13); and Wisconsin (10).

    President Obama won all nine of these states in both 2008 and 2012.

    Clearly, 2012 was a lot closer of an election than 2008. And a case could probably be made for the swingy-ness of each of those states. But President Obama won each of them twice. John Kerry and Al Gore won most of them in 2004 and 2000. To call them *all* toss-ups is a little too generous to the horse race in my opinion.

  11. I’m not convinced yet that PA is in play in 2016, but even if it was Gleason & Co. would find some way to blow it. The PA GOP leadership needs to be replaced before we can expect to compete consistently.

Comments are closed.

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