That’s the conclusion of the Cook Political Report at least, as Jennifer Duffy writes that they have classified PA as “Leans Democratic”.
“No incumbent starts a cycle in the Toss Up column,” she writes. “Do we expect Illinois GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner and Pennsylvania Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf to have difficult races? Absolutely, but first they need announced first-tier opposition.”
Duffy goes on to note that Wolf will be the only incumbent Democrat running in a state Trump won.
Cook also recently rated Casey’s Senate race as “Leans Democratic”.